This week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. To be honest, there isn't much to interpret about it; the market had already priced it in.
What really raises concerns is something that many people have overlooked👇
The Federal Reserve will launch a Treasury Reserve Management Purchase Program within the next 30 days.
Let's look at a few key points:
• Initial scale: $40 billion
• Start date: December 12
• Reserve growth may continue until April 2026
It's not called QE, but the effect is very close to QE.
As long as the Federal Reserve buys Treasury bonds, the reserves in the banking system will increase, and system liquidity will improve.
In my view, this is more like a low-key, gradual "invisible QE."
More importantly, it's about direction.
For the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been doing one thing: shrinking the balance sheet + withdrawing liquidity.
Now, the balance sheet is shifting from "one-way contraction" to a phase of net injection.
This is not about scale; it's about a turning point.
We have always emphasized a simple logic:
👉 Liquidity > Interest Rates > Fundamentals
Historically, almost every time, when bank reserves start to rise and the balance sheet stabilizes, risk assets respond in advance.
At the same time, the interest rate market is also aligning with this signal.
Federal funds futures have already priced in:
• 2 more rate cuts before 2026
• A total of about 50 basis points
What does this mean?
It means that the policy environment may be more benign than the current consensus in the market.
This is especially important for the cryptocurrency market.
$BTC does not rely on cash flow pricing; one of its core drivers is the tightness of U.S. dollar liquidity.
Once the Federal Reserve shifts from withdrawal to injection, even if it's "invisible," the market will begin to price it in ahead of time. For example, $ETH $ENA will likely perform well.
Especially when:
• After the halving
• Institutional participation continues to increase
• The market is still in a phase of emotional recovery
So, the conclusion is quite simple:
This is not a large QE like in 2020,
But it is likely a—underestimated liquidity turning point.
And the market often starts moving before most people realize it.
