🔥Crypto Insights: Analysis of US Rate Cuts + Japan Rate Hikes
🔥Divergence in Monetary Policy, Volatility and Differentiation in the Crypto Market, Musk’s Dog
🔥The Federal Reserve's rate cut releases liquidity, with a greater than 85% probability of the Bank of Japan raising rates on December 19, global policy reversals lead to a reshuffling of funds, and the crypto market is caught in a game of "loose support" and "tight pressure".
1. Core Logic of Policy Game
🔥- Federal Reserve Rate Cut: Rates drop to 3.75%-4.00%, decreasing the attractiveness of the US dollar, institutional funds flow into high-yield assets, mainstream coins like BTC and ETH receive liquidity support, with the total market cap of crypto seeing a single-day increase of $140 billion.
🔥- Japan Rate Hike: Ending thirty years of ultra-loose policy, raising the funding cost in yen, tens of trillions of yen in carry trades face liquidation, investors sell cryptocurrencies and other assets to switch back to yen, leading to a short-term liquidity contraction. p🔥u🔥p🔥p🔥i🔥e🔥s
2. Current Landscape of the Crypto Market
🔥- Mainstream Coins: BTC shows resilience, fluctuating around $92,000-$97,000, with strong support at $88,000; ETH benefits from ecological premiums, with $3,000-$3,200 as strong support.
🔥- Altcoins: Increasing differentiation, quality sectors like privacy computing and Layer 2 are performing strongly against the trend, while low market cap coins without fundamentals are being sold off, with some dropping over 20% in a single day. #一起来聊聊吧
🔥- Market Sentiment: Fear and Greed Index at 42, neutral but cautious, with over $532 million in liquidations across the network in the last 24 hours, and significant divergence between bulls and bears.
3. Operational Suggestions and Risk Warnings
🔥- Short-term: Keep a close watch on BTC at $90,000 support, ETH at $3,000 level, waiting for breakout signals, and avoid high leverage.
🔥- Medium to Long-term: BTC can be accumulated in batches if it dips below $87,500, ETH should wait for stabilization before entering, focusing on quality sectors.
🔥- Risks: Yen carry trade liquidations may trigger a sell-off, combined with substantial unlock pressure on altcoins, caution is needed regarding liquidity shocks and regulatory risks.
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