Core tracking logic
Centered around the four cores of 'macro liquidity + regulatory policy + market funds + industrial fundamentals', key indicators are checked daily and weekly to quickly assess market trends and potential risks. All indicators are compatible with the new regulatory landscape and monetary policy environment of 2025.
1. Macroeconomic indicators (tracked daily)
Focus on the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, which is currently maintained in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. If this level continues, it will suppress the liquidity of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Once a further rate cut signal is released, it will be favorable for fund inflows; the U.S. CPI year-on-year data needs to be closely monitored. A figure above 3% will raise concerns about rate hikes, while below 2.5% will strengthen expectations for rate cuts. The data can be checked through the official website of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is a key reference for fund flows. When above 4.5%, the relative attractiveness of crypto assets declines, leading to potential capital outflows. Below 4%, it is beneficial for funds to return, and real-time data can be obtained from Investing.com and Yahoo Finance; the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is also critical. When above 105, it will suppress crypto demand in emerging markets, while below 100 will stimulate fund inflows into the crypto market. The Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) can provide authoritative data support.
II. Global Regulatory Policies (Summary every Friday)
The U.S. regulatory dynamics focus on the progress of the GENIUS Act and SEC enforcement actions regarding crypto. The official website of the U.S. Congress and CoinDesk will update relevant information in a timely manner. Regulatory easing (such as simplifying business registration) will benefit the market, while tightened enforcement may trigger short-term selling pressure. Attention should also be paid to the FDIC allowing banks to participate in crypto custody and stablecoin reserve management. In the EU, focus on the progress of stablecoin reserve audits and trading platform filings after the implementation of the MiCA Act. The EU Commission's official website and CryptoPotato will synchronize the latest developments. Raising compliance thresholds will lead to the exit of small and medium platforms, with funds concentrating on compliant major platforms. Regional policy differences need attention, especially Singapore and Dubai's crypto-friendly policies and restrictions in some Asian regions. Local financial regulatory announcements are the core information source, with funds continuously migrating to policy-friendly regions, benefiting compliant assets like Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, the movements of sovereign country's Bitcoin strategic reserves published by the U.S. Treasury website also need to be tracked, as reserve lock-ups will strengthen Bitcoin's scarcity, benefiting long-term trends.
III. Market Capital and Sentiment Indicators (Daily Tracking)
The capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs is a core reference. A net inflow exceeding $500 million in a single day signals a bullish indication, while a net outflow exceeding $300 million leans bearish. CoinShares and Bloomberg ETF Analytics provide detailed data. By 2025, the total inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has reached $21.5 billion, significantly impacting institutional capital allocation. The Fear and Greed Index can be queried through Alternative.me. A value above 70 (greed zone) requires caution for profit-taking pullbacks, while below 30 (fear zone) may present stabilization and rebound opportunities. The funding rate of perpetual contracts should be tracked through Binance and OKX contract data. Continuous three-day rates above 0.05% indicate strong bullish sentiment, while continuous three-day rates below -0.05% indicate bearish dominance. The total market capitalization trading volume of crypto can be queried through CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap. If the daily trading volume is below $80 billion, it indicates liquidity shrinkage, making it difficult for trends to persist. If it exceeds $150 billion, market activity increases, and the trend becomes more resilient. Open Interest needs to be judged in conjunction with price trends. An increase in price alongside an increase in Open Interest indicates a strong trend, while a decrease in price alongside an increase in Open Interest indicates a continuation of the downtrend. Bybit and Deribit provide relevant data.
IV. Industry Fundamentals Indicators (Updated every Wednesday)
The total network hash rate of Bitcoin can be checked through Blockchain.com and F2Pool. A value above 900 EH/s indicates network security and stability, supporting Bitcoin's value, while a value below 700 EH/s raises concerns about market sentiment. Mining costs (USD per coin) can be obtained from CoinGecko and CryptoCompare. If the cost exceeds the current Bitcoin price, miners may sell to recover funds, suppressing prices; if it is below the current price by 50%, miners will show reluctance to sell. Changes in the total market capitalization of stablecoins are an important signal of fund movement. A month-on-month increase above 3% indicates that incremental funds are preparing to enter the market, while a decrease above 2% suggests funds are exiting. CoinMetrics provides authoritative statistical data. The proportion of Layer2 trading volume can be queried through L2BEAT. A value above 20% indicates an active crypto application ecosystem, while below 10% suggests weak applications. By 2025, Layer2 solutions like Polygon have attracted over 7,000 DApps to migrate, significantly impacting long-term value.
V. Technical Trend Auxiliary Indicators (Checked after daily close)
Bitcoin MA moving averages can be viewed through TradingView. When MA5 crosses above MA30, it forms a 'golden cross' indicating a bullish signal; when MA5 crosses below MA30, it forms a 'death cross' indicating a bearish signal. Divergence in moving averages upwards confirms an uptrend, while divergence downwards continues the downtrend. The MACD indicator can also be queried on TradingView. Continuous enlargement of the red bars indicates sufficient upward momentum, while enlarged green bars indicate dominant downward momentum. If new price highs occur but red bars shorten (top divergence), it signals a peak in upward movement; if new price lows occur but green bars shorten (bottom divergence), it signals a bottom in downward movement. The RSI indicator above 70 enters the overbought zone, which may lead to a pullback; below 30 enters the oversold zone, which may rebound. It is necessary to combine other indicators for resonance judgment to avoid distortion from a single indicator. The coordination of volume and price is key to verifying trends; increasing volume during an uptrend indicates a reliable trend, while increasing volume during a downtrend continues the downward trend. If new price highs occur but volume does not reach new highs, caution is warranted for trend reversal.
VI. Practical Usage Instructions
Spend 10 minutes daily verifying the core indicators of 'Macro + Funds + Technology.' If all three categories send bullish signals simultaneously, the trend's reliability increases. Every Friday, summarize regulatory policies and industry data. If signs of regulatory easing appear and ETF inflows continue, consider increasing positions moderately; if regulations tighten alongside rising U.S. Treasury yields, decisively reduce leverage. Focus on opportunities for indicator resonance, such as rising expectations for Fed interest rate cuts + net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs + MACD golden cross, which significantly increases the probability of upward movement; if the high-interest rate environment continues + regulations tighten + divergence in volume and price, risks must be avoided in a timely manner.
