The prospect of a "President Trump-led Fed" is emerging as a significant macro theme for 2026. š Analysts warn that markets may be underpricing its potential impact on global liquidity and crypto. Macro commentator plur daddy highlights that such a shift could trigger outsized moves, with bets on gold as a hedge. Joseph Wang ("Fed Guy") suggests pushes for lower rates could spark rallies in equities, potentially spilling over to risk assets like crypto. š
Markets have yet to fully price this scenario. Yield curve signals show tension between short-term T-bills and long-term bonds, reflecting uncertainty over policy direction. š Plur daddy identifies three key levers to ease financial conditions without formal QE: easing bank regulations, shortening bond maturities, and leveraging GSEs to buy MBS, influencing the housing market.
In the short term, volatility and limited liquidity make crypto a tricky environment. šŖļø Bitcoin may see some upside from improved bank reserves and lower term premiums, but structural supply-demand imbalances persist. TRUMPUSDT could be a relevant asset to watch.
Looking ahead, policy interventions like OBBBA expansions and T-bill buybacks could relieve funding stress, indirectly supporting crypto. Still, an extended period of consolidation and accumulation is expected over a dramatic breakout. Traders should watch liquidity flows and risk-on shifts carefully, as crypto stands to benefit if macro conditions steadily normalize. š Information is for market updates, not investment advice.
