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Mid-Term Holders Step Up While Big Wallets Cash Out โ Is a Reversal Still on the Table?
The $XRP market is entering one of its most intriguing phases in months. Despite a modest 1.5% bump this week, the token has still slipped nearly 10% over the past month, leaving it trapped inside a stubborn $2.31โ$1.98 trading zone. Whatโs fueling this stagnation isnโt just a lack of enthusiasm โ itโs a clash of market forces that are pushing and pulling with almost identical strength.
On one side, large-scale XRP holders are quietly trimming their positions, turning every small rally into a ceiling. On the other, short- and mid-term buyers continue scooping up tokens, convinced the market is priming for a breakout. The result? A tightening falling wedge structure that refuses to break โ at least for now.
Letโs break down whatโs really happening beneath the surface. ๐
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๐ Whales Step Back โ $143 Million in XRP Offloaded in 48 Hours
Whale behavior often sets the tone in crypto markets, and this week, their actions have been loud and clear: caution.
Two key whale groups began reducing their positions almost simultaneously:
100Mโ1B XRP wallets:
โค Holdings dropped from 8.32B โ 8.27B XRP (starting December 7)
10Mโ100M XRP wallets:
โค Balances declined from 11.01B โ 10.99B XRP (December 8)
Combined, thatโs roughly 70 million XRP, translating to an estimated $143 million at current valuations being cut from whale portfolios in just 48 hours.
๐ While the sell-off isnโt massive compared to the total circulating supply, the timing is critical. XRP has been trying to stabilize after weeks of downward pressure, and these whale exits have repeatedly blocked upward momentum โ almost like hitting a glass ceiling just as bulls begin charging.
This explains why every breakout attempt lately has fizzled out before gathering real strength.
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๐ฅ But $XRP Isnโt Alone โ Short- & Mid-Term Holders Are Buying the Dip
Hereโs where the story gets interesting.
While big players are stepping out, short- and mid-duration holders are doubling down, reflected in shifting HODL Waves data โ a metric that tracks how long tokens remain unmoved.
Strong accumulation showing up in two key age bands:
1โ3 month holders:
โค Increased from 8.52% โ 10.31%
3โ6 month holders:
โค Rose from 9.40% โ 10.87%
๐ These investor groups typically accumulate when they think the market is approaching a bottom โ or when they believe downward pressure is temporary. Their confidence suggests they expect the current wedge formation to eventually break upward, not downward.
Their buying has prevented deeper declines despite whale sell pressure โ and it is a major reason the falling wedge pattern remains intact.
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๐ A Stalemate in Motion: XRPโs Falling Wedge Still Holds
XRP is currently shaping a falling wedge, a chart pattern that often leads to bullish reversals โ but only after a decisive breakout. Right now, buyers and sellers seem locked in a tug-of-war, each preventing the other from gaining the upper hand.
Key technical insights:
๐น Bullish breakout confirmation:
A daily candle needs to close above ~$2.46 โ the point where the descending resistance meets current action.
๐น Upside levels after breakout:
Target 1: $2.61
Target 2: $2.83
Target 3: $3.11
๐น Support that keeps the wedge valid:
Price must stay above $1.98.
A break below that could open the doors to $1.82, a historically strong support zone earlier this cycle.
As long as XRP holds the $2.31โ$1.98 band, the wedge is alive โ but itโs tightening, and soon, a resolution becomes inevitable.
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โ๏ธ Buyers vs. Sellers โ Who Breaks First?
The current market looks like a classic crypto standoff:
๐ Whales:
Offloading into strength
Limiting upside momentum
Suggesting caution or profit-taking
๐ Active Holders:
Accumulating during a 10% monthly drop
Indicating confidence in a bullish wedge resolution
Providing crucial demand support
This dynamic is keeping XRP compressed between both forces โ neither able to force a clean victory.
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๐ So Whatโs Next for XRP?
The token is entering a critical stretch. If whales continue unloading, we may see extended sideways grinding, with bulls struggling to break resistance. But if accumulation persists โ or whale selling slows โ the wedge can quickly shift into a breakout mode.
Market sentiment summary:
Neutral-to-bullish structure
Bearish pressure fading but still present
Accumulation strengthening
Whale behavior the key short-term wildcard
Until one side overwhelms the other, XRPโs direction will likely remain muted within the narrowing wedge.
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๐ฌ Final Take
XRPโs price action is no longer just about technicals โ itโs about behavior. Whales selling into strength are delaying what could be a powerful breakout, yet smaller and mid-sized holders continue absorbing supply with confidence.
The next major move will come when one side finally wins the standoff.
Will it be the whales pushing price down?
Or the accumulating holders forcing a breakout to the upside?
All eyes are now on the $2.46 breakout line and the $1.98 support. Whichever gives first will likely determine XRPโs trajectory for the rest of the month. $XRP
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