Don't just focus on the two words 'interest rate cut'; the real game starts tonight.

The market is currently in a frenzy, but the truth is: a 25 basis point rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion, and this expectation has already been digested by the market. The real eye of the storm lies in the Federal Reserve's 'secret guidance' on the future. Tonight, everything will be revealed.

Core deductions: three possible directions for ETH

Tonight's script will directly determine whether your Ethereum will soar or plummet:

Most likely scenario: 'Using the rate cut to pour cold water' (highest probability)

Plot: The Federal Reserve announces a rate cut, but Chair Powell immediately 'changes his tone' and emphasizes that this is by no means the beginning of an easing cycle; the future depends on data.

Impact on ETH: A classic trend of 'buying expectations, selling facts.' ETH will first rise slightly, then quickly fall back due to unmet expectations, entering a period of volatility. Avoid chasing highs.

Surprise scenario: A true liquidity release (medium probability)

Plot: The Federal Reserve not only cuts rates but also hints at continuing next year, clearly shifting to an easing stance.

Impact on ETH: Initiates a frenzied upward trend. The macro windfall truly arrives, and funds will flood into ETH seeking higher returns, with targets directly looking above $3600.

Risk scenario: Market completely misjudges (low probability but deadly)

Plot: The Federal Reserve unexpectedly adopts a hawkish stance, even hinting that it may not rush to cut rates.

Impact on ETH: Comprehensive correction. All optimistic expectations will be shattered instantly, and ETH will face significant selling pressure, requiring a focus on defending the critical support at $3000.

Your ultimate action guide

In the emotionally charged theater, what you need is the calm of a sniper.

Key action: Wait and observe

The first hour after the announcement is the most dangerous, with volatile and unclear direction. The real trend is often established only after the press conference starts.

The best strategy is: wait for the wind to stop, then set sail. Let the market digest the first wave of emotional impact first.

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