Why has Sol been so quiet this round, and what major events are brewing?
This round $SOL is really garbage, it couldn't even drive the market like $ETH did yesterday, and instead, it has dropped even more seriously.
However, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: Solana's 30-day average realized profit-loss ratio has been consistently below 1 since mid-November. Simply put, among those selling SOL in the market, there are more people selling at a loss than those making a profit. This phenomenon of concentrated “liquidation selling” usually indicates that market sentiment has dropped close to freezing point, often appearing at the tail end of a major market downturn.
When the profit-loss ratio remains below 1 for a long time, it indicates that retail investors and short-term traders cannot withstand the losses and are hastily cutting their losses. This panic selling can wash away market bubbles and create space for subsequent rebounds. A similar situation occurred in August when the SOL profit-loss ratio once dropped to 0.15, after which long-term holders began quietly bottom-fishing, stabilizing the price around $158.
Currently, the SOL price is struggling around $140, and if it further drops to $129, about $500 million in long positions may be forcibly liquidated. This could trigger a chain of selling pressure, leading to a sharp short-term drop. However, looking at it the other way, once these leveraged positions are cleared out, market selling pressure will significantly ease, making it easier to form a rebound opportunity.
The market is currently in a stage of “panic but not necessarily despair.” A profit-loss ratio below 1 indeed reflects short-term weakness, but on-chain data suggests that long-term holders are still accumulating chips at low prices. For ordinary investors, instead of following the emotional selling, it’s better to pay attention to key positions: $129 is the danger zone for leveraged liquidation, while if it can stabilize above $140, it may gradually rebound towards $160.
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