📉【Core Viewpoints】
Matthew Paley, CIO of Nomura Asset Management, pointed out in the latest report:
✅ Slowing inflation + weak labor market → increased likelihood of interest rate cuts
✅ The latest economic forecast will lower inflation expectations for the coming quarters
✅ Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve on policy paths have reached historical peaks
🔍【Key Data Interpretation】
1. The "brake" on inflation is evident
• Core PCE price index has been below 2% for three consecutive months
• Rental inflation fell by 1.2% year-on-year (the largest monthly decline in nearly 10 years)
• Commodity price deflation continues to spread (used cars/electronics down over 8%)
2. The employment market is "inflated"
• Non-farm payrolls have been below expectations for five consecutive months
• Average hourly wage growth slows to 3.2%
• Part-time employment surged by 420,000 (accounting for 68% of new jobs)
💡[Market Impact Simulation]
✅ Positive scenario:
▫️ 10-year US Treasury yield dips to 3.5%
▫️ US tech stocks hit new highs
▫️ Bitcoin breaks through $95,000
⚠️ Risk scenario:
▫️ Inflation rebound → Interest rate cut expectations dashed
▫️ Wage stickiness → Real interest rates passively rise
▫️ Institutional divergence triggers sharp market fluctuations
📊[Historical Data Comparison]
• Before the first interest rate cut in 2024:
1. Core PCE has fallen for four consecutive months
2. Non-farm payroll average drops to 120,000
3. The Federal Reserve officials' speech divergence index reached 68 (currently 72)
