$BTC breaks 100,000, $ETH surges to 4,000! 【Coming Soon】 The Federal Reserve's heavyweight decision tonight: "hawkish rate cut" is coming!
At 3 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the global market holds its breath — the Federal Reserve is about to announce its latest interest rate decision. The market has generally bet on a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with rates expected to drop to 3.5%-3.75%.
But this is by no means a simple rate cut.
The Federal Reserve is grappling with a "serious divide": one side is concerned about the deterioration of the job market and demands continued rate cuts; the other warns of inflation risks, believing that easing has reached its limit.
Thus, a key concept emerges — the "hawkish rate cut".
That is: cutting rates while clearly signaling "this may be the last time for a while".
Focus One: What does Powell say?
The post-meeting statement and Powell's press conference will be crucial for interpreting future policy directions. Goldman Sachs expects the statement may revert to cautious wording like "further adjustments in magnitude and timing", indicating that the threshold for another rate cut has significantly increased.
Focus Two: Dot Plot and Internal Voting
The "dot plot" reflecting officials' interest rate forecasts will be updated again. Notably, this vote may see multiple dissenting votes:
· Kansas City Fed President George (who opposed the rate cut last month) is expected to vote against again;
· More than a third of economists believe St. Louis Fed President Bullard will also oppose, citing concerns about inflation;
· Board member Mester may call for a 50 basis point cut, continuing the "dovish dissent" from the previous two meetings.
Focus Three: Economic Data and Inflation Dilemma
Although the core PCE inflation slightly fell to 2.8% in September, it remains significantly above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the job market is starting to show signs of fatigue: hiring decreases in October, layoffs increase.
Focus Four: Could the balance sheet pivot?
Besides interest rates, the Federal Reserve may also signal something else: restarting bond purchases (though not on a scale to be termed "quantitative easing"). In October, they just announced a halt to "balance sheet reduction"; now due to market funding pressures, the purchase plan may restart.
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