Now the attention of the entire network is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but I feel that the benefits brought by this wave of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have mostly been fully released. Take Bitcoin as an example, it rebounded from $80,000 to $94,000, which is essentially the market speculating on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. Next, we need to focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike next week.

Many people may have forgotten what happened in 1998. At that time, after Japan ended its ultra-low interest rate policy, the entire Asian financial system was hit hard. Indonesia and Thailand simply couldn't withstand it, and South Korea was on the brink of bankruptcy. Back then, the Federal Reserve symbolically cut rates by 25 basis points, and by early October, the yen's exchange rate suddenly surged. This was significant; those who borrowed yen to buy US Treasuries had to sell off their Treasuries frantically to exchange back for yen. As a result, US Treasury yields soared, and all high-risk assets suffered, with tech stocks and Bitcoin plummeting. Later, the Federal Reserve had no choice but to cut rates by 75 basis points in one go, leading to a rebound in the US stock market.

Why is the yen's interest rate hike a negative for global capital markets? The reason is simple: at that time, many people globally were borrowing yen at extremely low costs to buy US Treasuries. When the yen appreciates, everyone has to quickly sell Treasuries to exchange back for yen, or they will incur losses. This leads to rising US Treasury yields, which in turn impacts all high-risk assets; this logic still applies today.

Looking at the recent contract position data, whether from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), both show that contract positions have been increasing, making it feel like someone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut to harvest a wave. However, the real key is actually next week, with the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike coupled with the release of US CPI data. If the CPI data significantly exceeds expectations, it could be troublesome; on one side there's interest rate hikes, and on the other side, inflation, which would subject the market to a double blow, leading to greater volatility.

Next, we need to closely monitor Powell's speech after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. If he signals a dovish stance, meaning a more accommodative policy attitude, the market might bounce back a bit. But if he leans hawkish, indicating a tightening of policy, coupled with the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, then the upcoming market situation could be challenging. #美联储重启降息步伐