Quick overview of last week's developments
This update $BTC will be quite brief as there haven't been many changes in my market outlook over the past week.
Last week we talked about two large liquidity clusters at the 97k and 107k zones and emphasized the need to short in these areas if market makers push the price up to sweep liquidity.
Another noteworthy point is: the weekly EMA50 still needs to be retested and this area perfectly aligns with the liquidity cluster 99–100k
If there is a spike up to retest this frame, it needs strong volatility. This could definitely happen right during the FOMC on 10/12. There are only a few days left.
The market is facing three scenarios
In fact, no scenario is certain, but trading is a game of probabilities. If we consider BTC to be in a bear market, we must accept that prices will create new lows over time, but they will never drop straight down; there will always be retracements and psychological traps.
Our job now is to identify where market makers want to take the price before BTC returns to a lower target area around 70k.
Scenario 1: BTC breaks the bear flag and goes straight to 70k
This scenario is feasible but not the one with the highest probability.
Some signals about the bear market still have the potential to show the probability of a drop straight to the BTC target that has been set.
Scenario 2: BTC bounces back to 97k to sweep liquidity + retest EMA50 before falling again
I am leaning more towards this scenario. The process of market makers could be:
Push BTC up to 97–100k
Retest weekly EMA50 because this is the most important bull-bear threshold
Slightly break EMA50 to create FOMO for price increase
Push further up to 107k – where there is a huge liquidity cluster
Build another large liquidity cluster below
Drop straight down to 83k to trigger liquidation and make a 'big short' profitable again
In fact, if it goes like this, it's a perfect trap; it is the push above EMA50 to make the whole market believe that the uptrend has returned before reversing.
The question many people ask is why not close short at 115–125k and then long at 97–100 or 107k?
Personally, I see that everything has a probability and nothing is certain to happen.
Short orders at 115–125k are almost certainly not going to be touched again in the next year. The reason is that those entries are too good, and there is no reason to close them.
In addition, the probability of BTC reaching 70k is extremely high; the only difference lies in where the fake pump before the fall will go, which no one knows, so further observation is needed.
Just remember some scenarios:
falling straight from the current bear flag
pump to 97–100 and then fall
or stronger to 107k and then fall
But regardless of the scenario, my forecast remains that BTC could reach around 70k, so always remember to take profits at the right time.
Fundamentals are extremely bearish
The death cross has been confirmed and this is a signal that many do not want to believe because emotions always prefer a golden cross for price increase. But the market does not care about anyone's feelings.
The most important event this week: FOMC on 10/12
According to the forecast:
86% of the market expects the FED to cut rates by 0.25%
14% expect to keep it unchanged
If the FED cuts rates: the market has priced it in, so the reaction will not be too strong.
If NOT cutting rates: a strong selling wave may easily appear, pulling BTC further down. In summary, we need to observe more, and I will try to keep updating for you all.