🟡$BTC
analysis of the current BTC price dynamics at $89,418 (down 3.29% today):
key levels to watch:
support:
- $85-86K – immediate support zone
- $80-82K – main accumulation zone where, according to Larry Fink, sovereign funds were buying and where we saw significant whale activity (3,805 BTC/$350 million purchased, Matrixport withdrew 5,805 BTC/$468 million from Binance)
- $74k – critical long-term support (close to the cost of production)
resistance:
- $92-94k – short-term resistance
- $100k – psychological level of recovery
- $110k+ – breakout zone
current market structure:
the drop triggered the strongest surge of realized losses since the FTX collapse, with stress concentrated among short-term holders. This typically marks capitulation phases.
contradictory signals:
bearish:
- BlackRock IBIT: outflow of $2.7 billion over 5 weeks (the longest streak since launch)
- outflow through ETFs has reached a historical minimum relative to total inflows
- ongoing capitulation of short-term holders
bullish:
- Texas becomes the first state to purchase BTC ($10 million in total)
- sovereign funds are accumulating in the range of $80-90k.
- whale accumulation is accelerating (8,610 BTC withdrawn from exchanges in 24 hours)
- supply on exchanges at a multi-year low
- J.P. Morgan maintains the model target at $170k.
- support at the cost of production level around $90k.
impartial view:
we are in a phase of demand absorption. Institutional flows are mixed – retail/impulsive money is leaving through ETFs, while governmental structures and whales are accumulating. The range of $80-90k is establishing itself as a new base with significant sovereign demand and whale demand. A break below $80k will cause concern; a recovery to $100k will signal a resumption of the trend.
