Recently saw the U price drop, and I was curious about the arbitrage price. Assuming I invest 10,000 RMB, the current U price is about 6.95, which means 10000/6.95=1438.848921

Then using a Hong Kong card to withdraw money, the current HKD to U price is 7.83

So 1438.8489x7.83=11266.186887

Converting that back to RMB gives us 10232.

The maximum profit from arbitraging 10,000 is 232, with a return ratio of about 232/10000=0.0232=2.32%

If repeated ten times, that would be (1+0.0232)^10*10000=12577.818245

If repeated one hundred times, that would be

(1+0.0232)^100*10000 = 99095.320599 ≈ 100000

The profit nearly increases tenfold

However, we are currently only calculating pure profit, without considering extreme risks. Assuming the risk of getting caught after one transaction is 0.5%, the probability of not getting caught in ten transactions is

(1-0.5%)^10=95.11%

If it's a hundred transactions, the survival probability would be

(1-0.5%)^100=60.57%~~half survive

Let's hypothetically assume, if I greedily survive to the 999th transaction, the probability of not getting caught on the 1000th transaction is

(1-0.5%)^1000=0.665% essentially no way out~

If my ancestors' grave can emit green smoke and I can last from 100 to 1000, I actually turned quite a bit. It just depends on whether I can earn and still have the life to spend🤣🤣

What do you all think, is this risk big? 😂, feel free to discuss $GIGGLE