Tonight at 11 PM, the PCE inflation data for September will be released. This thing is said to be the "anchor" for the Federal Reserve. Once the results are out, it could directly determine whether to cut interest rates in December. Currently, the market is betting on an 87% probability of a rate cut. Everyone is waiting to see whether inflation has loosened.
My personal judgment is that, regardless of the data, it will be bearish for the crypto market in the short term.
The logic is simple:
Data cooling = Positive for the market: The market has already fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut (87%). Even if the data is mild, it's within expectations, and there might be a wave of "buy the expectation, sell the fact".
Data exceeding expectations = Directly bearish: If inflation is higher than expected, the Federal Reserve may very well hesitate to cut rates, or they might say, "we'll have to wait and see". This could eliminate the momentum for global hot money inflows into the risk market (including the crypto market), and Bitcoin could directly test the support at $90,000 or even $89,000.
So my view is very straightforward: Retail investors shouldn't rush in now. The entire crypto market is already in a contraction phase, just waiting for this news to break the balance. Bitcoin is currently stuck around $92,000, with longs and shorts battling in the range of $91,000 to $95,000. When the news comes out, a fluctuation of 3-5% up or down is very normal.
What to do tonight?
Remember this mantra: Don’t act, mainly watch the show; if you do engage, act quickly.
The biggest risk now is not missing out, but rather getting smacked by both sides with heavy positions. Once the result is out, if the market suddenly spikes, don't rush to chase it; it could very likely be a false breakout.
If there’s a violent sell-off, don’t panic to buy the dip; wait for stability before making a decision. In this news-driven market, surviving is more important than making profits.
Want to know which cryptocurrencies and strategies can seize opportunities immediately after the data is released tonight? Or want to learn my exclusive watch points? Stay tuned for my further analysis. Remember, at such critical moments, preserving your capital is the key to waiting for the real trend.
