Regarding the series of U.S. economic data to be released tonight, I believe it may have various impacts on the cryptocurrency market.
From the data itself, at 20:30 the U.S. will announce the number of Challenger job cuts for November, and at 21:30 the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending November 29, with an expected value of 220,000 people. At 23:00, the U.S. will also release the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for November and the monthly factory orders for September. Among them, employment data has always been a key focus of the market, and initial unemployment claims can directly reflect the state of the labor market. If the announced value is higher than expected, it indicates that the labor market may weaken, which, from a traditional economic logic standpoint, could have a negative impact on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, in the short term due to increased uncertainty about economic prospects. Conversely, if it is lower than expected, it shows that the labor market is relatively robust, which may provide some support for the cryptocurrency market.
However, the current market situation is somewhat special. The market has heavily bet on a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability of this event on Polymarket reaching as high as 94%. Interest rate cut expectations often lead to a flow of funds into risk assets, which is favorable for the cryptocurrency market. In this broader context, even if tonight's employment data shows some volatility, it may be difficult to change the market's overall expectations for interest rate cuts.
But we also cannot let our guard down. If the employment data deviates too much from expectations, such as the initial jobless claims significantly exceeding 220,000, it may trigger market concerns about an economic recession. Even with interest rate cut expectations, it may lead to a shift in investor sentiment towards caution, thereby causing short-term impacts on the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, data such as the global supply chain pressure index and factory order month-on-month rate will also reflect the state of economic operations from different angles; if these data perform poorly, they may similarly affect market confidence.
For the cryptocurrency market, it is essential to closely monitor the data situation and market reactions around the data release tonight. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, combined with interest rate cut expectations, the cryptocurrency market may continue its recent trend or even rise further; if the data falls short of expectations, the market may experience volatility, so risk control is necessary.
If you want to keep up with the Empress's rhythm and seize this opportunity for a double, go directly to my ancestral business to see the specific gameplay — I will teach you step by step how to monitor signals and find entry points, so you don’t miss the next breakout!#币安区块链周 #加密市场观察
