Over the years of trading, from stumbling to stable profits, and reversing the results of an 8-fold increase in capital, my greatest gain has not been the accumulation of technical indicators, but rather learning 'subtraction'—decisively eliminating those 'incomprehensible' market situations and focusing solely on the 'transparent opportunities' I can control.
In the end, trading is not about who analyzes more comprehensively, but about who can stick to their own 'circle of competence'. While others chase trends, guess turning points, and gamble on news, I adhere to a single logic: only engage in transparent markets, avoid chasing peaks and bottoms, and do not pursue soaring prices. Regardless of how high it goes, I resolutely stay away from the market if it exceeds the system's trends.
These 3 types of 'transparent markets' are safety zones that I have repeatedly verified:
Confirmation after a trend breakthrough pullback: After a wave of upward movement, if the price falls back but does not break through the core support, and the volume gradually converges, if it pulls back near the previous high or key moving averages before re-expanding, this is a dual insurance of 'following the trend + confirmation.' What I fear most is blindly chasing after an upward trend without waiting for confirmation, turning the trend into a trap. Effective breakout after a false break: During a sideways market, if there is a sudden increased volume breaking below the support level, it is initially thought to be a trend reversal, but it quickly pulls back above the support to form a 'false breakout.' I never panic and sell in a breakdown; I only wait for confirmation after a pullback and look for an upward signal with volume-price coordination before following up, avoiding baiting short traps. Strong attack after a washout in the middle of the trend: After the price enters an upward channel, it starts to consolidate sideways or slightly pull back, during which there are several baiting short trends, but the key support remains rock solid. At this point, as long as I see a short-term breakout + stabilization signal, I will decisively increase my position - even if I'm wrong, I can quickly stop-loss and exit at this level, never falling into passivity.
Some people say: 'This will miss many opportunities, right?' I never deny that. But the essence of trading is not 'earning more,' but 'surviving longer.' The cryptocurrency market has never lacked myths of overnight wealth, but there are few winners who can traverse through bull and bear markets. Those seemingly tempting 'ambiguous markets' hide countless traps for baiting longs and shorts. Greed will lead to loss, and pursuing quick results will only shrink the principal.
What I want is not to 'seize every opportunity,' but to have 'confidence in every shot.' Making one less wrong trade and losing one less amount of money that shouldn't be lost is more important than blindly following the trend and making ten times.
At the end of the trade, what matters is not luck or courage, but composure and discipline. By holding onto your transparent market situation and giving up on fluctuations beyond your understanding, you can navigate the turbulent waves of the cryptocurrency market steadily and far.
If you are also troubled by 'not being able to select the market accurately and not being able to hold onto profits,' why not try narrowing the battlefield - find your 'transparent opportunity' and getting it right once is better than making a hundred mistakes.
