The 2024 halving cut Bitcoin's daily issuance from 900 BTC to 450 BTC yet price action since April has been rangebound between $60k and $70k.

• On-chain data shows long-term holder supply at 14.6M BTC, an all-time high, indicating accumulation not distribution.

• Past cycles show the 12-18 month post-halving period produces the strongest returns with average 400% gains from cycle lows.

• Current MVRV Z-score at 1.2 suggests we are still below typical euphoria levels above 3.0 seen at previous tops.

• Exchange balances dropped 15% year-to-date to 2.3M BTC, lowest since 2018, reducing available supply.

The data does not guarantee timing but it does suggest the bull phase has more room to develop before reaching peak speculation.

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