#美国非农数据超预期
Japan injects 21 trillion, the Federal Reserve cuts the probability of a half-rate cut, the life-and-death question for $ETH holders!
🌪️ Center of the policy storm
1️⃣ Japan: Fiscal accelerator + monetary brake
The Japanese government just passed a stimulus plan of about 21.3 trillion yen, continuing to pour money into the economy. Meanwhile, the decision-makers keep saying: real interest rates are deeply trapped in negative territory, and the time to exit ultra-loose policy and even further raise rates is 'getting closer'.
The result is: fiscal policy is stepping on the accelerator, monetary policy is preparing to step on the brake, the yen, interest rates, and global risk assets are all forced to be repriced.
2️⃣ Federal Reserve: Dovish-hawkish tug-of-war, December becomes a life-and-death situation
Latest non-farm payrolls added about 119,000 in September, significantly higher than market expectations;
However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reaching a high since 2021 - a typical 'mixed signal.'
Under the pressure of this data and inflation, the probability of a rate cut in December once plummeted from nearly 70% to around 30%, and then fluctuated back and forth between 30% and 70% with officials' statements.
Doves believe 'policy remains tight, and there is room for further cuts'; hawks warn 'further cuts would pour gasoline on the asset bubble.' The FOMC has clearly divided into two factions, creating a market pricing that feels directly schizophrenic.
3️⃣ Three warnings: Bubble, AI, Volatility
Officials from several regional Federal Reserves, including Philadelphia and Chicago, have recently emphasized:
Asset prices are showing 'signs of bubbling' driven by AI narratives and algorithmic trading;
Another aggressive rate cut may support the economy in the short term but could push financial risks to the limit in the medium to long term.
📊 Macroeconomic signals, how to hit the crypto space?
Non-farm payroll data tells us: the economy is not collapsing, but unemployment is rising. In such scenarios, the Federal Reserve will be more hesitant about 'continuing significant rate cuts.' The result is: the dollar, interest rate expectations, and volatility oscillate together, and the intense fluctuations in traditional markets will amplify in high beta BTC/ETH.
Current key range (not specific price calls, just calibrating risk sentiment)
BTC: Repeatedly contending in the $80,000-$82,000 range, this is the 'emotional defense level' for this round of market behavior. Once effectively broken, the market may switch from 'normal correction' to 'chain liquidation.'
ETH: Currently oscillating around the $2800 line
Upper pressure: $3000-$3200 range
Lower support: around $2600-$2650
🛡️ Trader's survival guide: The core is 'stay alive to wait for opportunities'
In this environment where central banks are fighting each other, survival > profit:
✅ Reduce leverage first
Bring overall leverage down to a level where 'you can sleep well at night,' especially for heavily leveraged contracts, prioritize reducing the parts with the highest correlation and volatility.
✅ Control total exposure, not just fixate on a single position
Use 'position market value × leverage ratio' to roughly calculate real risk exposure. During macro volatility phases, try to keep it at 50%-70% of normal levels.
✅ Keep ammunition
Reserve 40%-60% in cash or stablecoins to provide maneuvering space for the December FOMC, Bank of Japan decisions, and Powell's speeches, avoiding being forced to liquidate at critical junctures.
✅ Switch rhythm before and after events
Before major data/interest rate meetings: reduce positions, lower leverage, shorten holding periods;
After events land: follow the trend clearly or bet against it, still prioritizing risk control.
🎯 Opportunity capture: Use scenario thinking for December
📈 Scenario A: Continued rate cuts in December / dovish remarks
Market impact: The dollar retreats, interest rate expectations decrease, and risk assets have a chance to 'make another push'; the rotation order of high beta assets is usually: BTC→ETH→altcoins. Strategy idea: primarily 'buy on dips,' do not chase prices; delineate buy zones in advance and enter gradually as prices reach.
📉 Scenario B: Press the pause button / hawkish remarks
Market impact: U.S. Treasury yields rise, the dollar strengthens, primarily impacting long-duration assets and high-leverage speculative positions. Strategy idea: when key support is effectively broken, it is better to be flat or lightly positioned and not to fight against the macro direction; the best 'hedge' for retail investors is to reduce positions.
💎 Golden rules
When global central banks collectively 'go crazy':
Pessimists often find it easier to 'predict correctly' in macro judgments;
Those who truly make money are calm, disciplined, and willing to gradually add positions when others are panicking.
History has repeatedly proven: the turning point of abrupt policy shifts often coincides with one of the year's best trading ranges.
👇 Bull vs Bear face-off
What do you think the Federal Reserve will do in December?
✅ Continue rate cuts, the bull market continues to soar
❌ Press pause, the market hibernates early
📩 Feel free to share your BTC/ETH position structure, upcoming plans, and risk control rules in the comments to help others avoid pitfalls and not get washed out by 'policy storms'!