Last Thursday, the price of Ethereum (ETH) reached a weekly high of $2,150, an important threshold for holders with large amounts of ETH. However, the continuous volatility in the cryptocurrency and stock markets continues to cause ETH prices to adjust, falling below $2,000.
Closing daily trades above $2,100 is still seen as a key factor, as this price corresponds to the break-even price and actual price of wallets holding over 100,000 ETH. The actual price is the last price at which coins were traded, serving as a measure of profit rather than just the spot price.
The actual price of ETH by balance group | Source: CryptoQuant
Since 2020, ETH has only traded below the actual price of these large investors a few times, most notably during the bear market of 2022. The price chart shows that after each test of the actual price as a support level, the price tends to recover strongly.
Futures market analyst Dom describes the current situation as 'a promising setup for the entire market,' while also highlighting that prices have touched the bottom of the trading range earlier this week. He also pointed out that prices have reached the VWAP (volume-weighted average price) in a month and the high-value level – the upper boundary of the price range where the majority of trading volume has occurred in the last month.
VWAP is an indicator that measures the average trading price adjusted for volume. A price exceeding $2,140 could signal a shift in short-term order flows, while failing to maintain higher levels would cause prices to continue fluctuating within the current range.
$1,800 remains a critical price level to watch
Data from CoinGlass shows that over $220 million in short orders have been liquidated in the past two days, alleviating leverage pressure in the market. Currently, there are about $2.66 billion in long orders that are in a liquidation state accumulating around the $1,800 level, creating an important liquidity pocket just below the current price.
ETH liquidation map | Source: CoinGlass
Cryptocurrency analyst Pelin Ay has highlighted a significant change in funding rates on the Binance exchange. Earlier this month, ETH's funding rates turned negative, reflecting a strong increase in short positions as prices weakened. However, after prices fell below $1,800 on Tuesday, funding rates returned to positive at 0.23%, indicating that late short positions have been forced to close.
ETH funding rate on Binance | Source: CryptoQuant
Nevertheless, with the funding rate currently at a high level, the market seems to lean towards long positions. This increases the risk of a potential long squeeze near the $1,800 level, especially if the upward momentum slows or reverses.
Technical barriers that need to be overcome
Market analyst IncomeSharks has pointed out three major technical barriers, including price repeatedly being rejected at the SuperTrend indicator and the price channel resistance near $2,250.
SuperTrend is an indicator that uses volatility, measured by ATR (Average True Range), to determine the trend. When the price trades below this indicator line, the line turns red and acts as a dynamic resistance level. On the chart, each time the price rebounds, it is halted at the red band, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant.
Weekly Ether chart | Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
According to IncomeSharks, traders should closely monitor whether ETH can return or attract new buying interest around the April low of $1,500. This price level lies within the weekly demand zone from $1,691 to $1,384. Only by overcoming these important technical barriers can ETH build momentum to sustainably conquer the $2,500 mark.
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