The final ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the legality of former President Donald Trump's tariffs is expected to be issued between March and June 2026, according to forecasts by analysts at Barclays.
Earlier, a federal appeals court ruled that the tariffs imposed by Trump on China, Canada, and Mexico were illegal, deeming that he exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). However, the court temporarily maintained the validity of these tariffs until October 14, 2025, to give the Trump administration a chance to appeal to the Supreme Court.
The Trump administration requested that the Supreme Court urgently consider the case before September 10, 2025, in an attempt to maintain these tariffs as a key tool in its economic policy.
If the Supreme Court declines to hear the case, the ruling of the appeals court will take effect, which could lead to widespread tariff refunds for importers. However, if the Supreme Court agrees to hear the case, oral arguments may be held in November 2025, with a final ruling expected in early 2026.
These tariffs account for a significant portion of U.S. tariff revenue, including a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, a 10% tariff on imports from China, and a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related imports from China.
In the meantime, these tariffs remain in effect, meaning that markets may experience limited reactions until the final ruling is issued.
