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🔄 Update: so hot
With the spot price trading around $87.8K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 #sth Cost Basis: $99.9K
--- Spot Price: $87.8K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.7k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.1K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K
#USGDPUpdate
With the spot price trading around $87.8K, the key on-chain price models have now shifted slightly:
🔴 #sth Cost Basis: $99.9K
--- Spot Price: $87.8K ---
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $87.7k
🟢True Market Mean: $81.1K
🔵 Realized Price: $56.2K
#USGDPUpdate
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Bitcoin price stabilizes at $84,000 and indicators suggest a potential correction!
Bitcoin continues to trade at the $84,000 level since last week without significant fluctuations, in stark contrast to the sharp movements the market experienced earlier.
However, its current stability may just be the calm before a new wave of upcoming volatility.
Whale Activity:
Whales play a pivotal role in the cryptocurrency market, as they hold large stakes that can lead to strong fluctuations when buying or selling in large quantities.
According to “CryptoQuant” data, the percentage of Bitcoin flows from whales to trading platforms has risen to unprecedented levels since last year, indicating a potential redistribution of assets by major investors, which is a sign of imminent selling pressure.
Meanwhile, the “Glassnode” platform indicated that short-term investors (STH) currently hold assets worth $7 billion at a loss, marking the largest sustained loss during this bullish cycle.
Although the current phase is still within the bullish market range, it could lead to further declines if these investors decide to liquidate their assets, especially as prices continue to remain in a consolidation range.
The question currently posed:
Are we witnessing an upcoming correction in Bitcoin's price, or will the market maintain its upward momentum?
#bitcoin #btc #CryptoQuant
#Glassnode #sth
$BTC
Bitcoin continues to trade at the $84,000 level since last week without significant fluctuations, in stark contrast to the sharp movements the market experienced earlier.
However, its current stability may just be the calm before a new wave of upcoming volatility.
Whale Activity:
Whales play a pivotal role in the cryptocurrency market, as they hold large stakes that can lead to strong fluctuations when buying or selling in large quantities.
According to “CryptoQuant” data, the percentage of Bitcoin flows from whales to trading platforms has risen to unprecedented levels since last year, indicating a potential redistribution of assets by major investors, which is a sign of imminent selling pressure.
Meanwhile, the “Glassnode” platform indicated that short-term investors (STH) currently hold assets worth $7 billion at a loss, marking the largest sustained loss during this bullish cycle.
Although the current phase is still within the bullish market range, it could lead to further declines if these investors decide to liquidate their assets, especially as prices continue to remain in a consolidation range.
The question currently posed:
Are we witnessing an upcoming correction in Bitcoin's price, or will the market maintain its upward momentum?
#bitcoin #btc #CryptoQuant
#Glassnode #sth
$BTC
#Bitcoin Holders Show Early Signs of Profit-Taking Amid Supply Shift
According to BlockBeats, Glassnode has reported a significant decline in the supply ratio between Bitcoin long-term holders (#LTH ) and short-term holders (#STH ).
The 30-day percentage change has shifted from 'accumulation' to 'selling,' indicating early signs of profit-taking.
This development follows several months of continuous buying by long-term holders and rising prices, suggesting a potential turning point.
The supply ratio is considered a key indicator for observing trend reversals.
#SmartTraderLali
According to BlockBeats, Glassnode has reported a significant decline in the supply ratio between Bitcoin long-term holders (#LTH ) and short-term holders (#STH ).
The 30-day percentage change has shifted from 'accumulation' to 'selling,' indicating early signs of profit-taking.
This development follows several months of continuous buying by long-term holders and rising prices, suggesting a potential turning point.
The supply ratio is considered a key indicator for observing trend reversals.
#SmartTraderLali
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⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️#BTC and the behavior of short-term holders (STH)
The recent correction below $80,000 seriously scared short-term holders.
Despite Bitcoin's resilience above $100K in recent weeks, the net position of STH has sharply turned negative — the accumulated change is already -833,000 BTC.
We are approaching outflow levels that were observed during the last dip.
This indicates that STH have become much more sensitive to price movements, and even a slight pullback to $100K has triggered a new wave of fear.
If pressure from STH increases — the market may be vulnerable to new corrections.
If they stabilize — it will be a positive signal for continued growth.
We are closely monitoring the behavior of this group — right now, this is one of the key indicators for short-term trading.
$BTC
#btc #sth
The recent correction below $80,000 seriously scared short-term holders.
Despite Bitcoin's resilience above $100K in recent weeks, the net position of STH has sharply turned negative — the accumulated change is already -833,000 BTC.
We are approaching outflow levels that were observed during the last dip.
This indicates that STH have become much more sensitive to price movements, and even a slight pullback to $100K has triggered a new wave of fear.
If pressure from STH increases — the market may be vulnerable to new corrections.
If they stabilize — it will be a positive signal for continued growth.
We are closely monitoring the behavior of this group — right now, this is one of the key indicators for short-term trading.
$BTC
#btc #sth
🚨 Short-Term Holder profit-taking is surging (+3σ above avg)...
📊 But historically, real market tops come around +5σ.
📢 We're elevated — not exhausted.
🚀 This rally might still have legs. Don’t fade it yet.
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin #STH #OnChainData
📊 But historically, real market tops come around +5σ.
📢 We're elevated — not exhausted.
🚀 This rally might still have legs. Don’t fade it yet.
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin #STH #OnChainData
STH Realizing Losses But No Panic Detected
The chart clearly shows short-term holders STH sending coins to exchanges at a loss: аverage 4,000 $BTC daily.
🤔 Bottom Line:
This looks like planned loss-taking by weak hands,not mass capitulation. The market remains composed.
Do you see reversal signs on the chart or just a correction? 👇
#STH #charts #CryptoQuant
The chart clearly shows short-term holders STH sending coins to exchanges at a loss: аverage 4,000 $BTC daily.
🤔 Bottom Line:
This looks like planned loss-taking by weak hands,not mass capitulation. The market remains composed.
Do you see reversal signs on the chart or just a correction? 👇
#STH #charts #CryptoQuant
🔴 Market in Red = Golden Entry Zone! 🔥
Dips like this are pure gold for smart investors! 🚀
Top plays like $BNB, $BTC, $ETH, #SOL, and #DOGE are all trading lower — but this isn’t panic, it’s opportunity. History shows that accumulating during blood-red days rewards patience.
✅ Smart Playbook
Pick your favorite coin
Buy spot in portions (DCA strategy)
Hold with conviction for the bounce
The deeper the dip, the better the long-term entry. Don’t chase green candles — own the red ones. 👌
🛒💎 Who’s stacking bags today?
#bnb
#sth
#BTC
#ETH
Dips like this are pure gold for smart investors! 🚀
Top plays like $BNB, $BTC, $ETH, #SOL, and #DOGE are all trading lower — but this isn’t panic, it’s opportunity. History shows that accumulating during blood-red days rewards patience.
✅ Smart Playbook
Pick your favorite coin
Buy spot in portions (DCA strategy)
Hold with conviction for the bounce
The deeper the dip, the better the long-term entry. Don’t chase green candles — own the red ones. 👌
🛒💎 Who’s stacking bags today?
#bnb
#sth
#BTC
#ETH
My 30 Days' PNL
2025-08-28~2025-09-26
+$0.47
+11.95%
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📉 Short-term trader losses rise to critical levels:
Is the market approaching a major panic phase? The cryptocurrency market is experiencing unprecedented selling pressure from short-term traders () with daily losses nearing 427 million dollars, the highest losses recorded since November 2022. These levels typically only appear during periods of collective capitulation, reflecting a clear state of panic and rapid selling by new Bitcoin holders. Historical signals from previous down cycles exhibited a similar pattern: increased realized losses for short-term traders → panic and aggressive selling → continued decline → then reaching the true bottom. What stands out today is that the volume of losses has reached nearly the peaks of 2022, even though the price has not fully collapsed yet. This indicates that the market is experiencing an early capitulation phase before the larger drop occurs, a behavior that has repeated before major bottoms in previous cycles. The decline in liquidity worsens the situation; it's not just about losses; there is also a clear contraction in liquidity within the market: a decrease in flows of the
FTX Level Pain Just Hit Bitcoin
The recent dip in $BTC was more than just a pullback. We just witnessed the largest realized loss event since the FTX collapse—a clear sign of deep market stress. This isn't long-term whales selling; this capitulation is being driven almost entirely by Short-Term Holders (STHs). These newer participants, spooked by volatility, liquidated their positions at a rapid pace. This mass exodus confirms that the weakest hands have been flushed out. While painful, these moments of maximum fear often precede structural resets, offering a crucial insight into market cleansing before any potential recovery phase for $BTC .Not financial advice. Do your own research.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #Capitulation #OnChain #STH
📉
The recent dip in $BTC was more than just a pullback. We just witnessed the largest realized loss event since the FTX collapse—a clear sign of deep market stress. This isn't long-term whales selling; this capitulation is being driven almost entirely by Short-Term Holders (STHs). These newer participants, spooked by volatility, liquidated their positions at a rapid pace. This mass exodus confirms that the weakest hands have been flushed out. While painful, these moments of maximum fear often precede structural resets, offering a crucial insight into market cleansing before any potential recovery phase for $BTC .Not financial advice. Do your own research.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #Capitulation #OnChain #STH
📉
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🔍STH is suffering heavy losses, is the market about to see a big change?
🆕 According to CoinGlass, STH – short-term holders of Bitcoin are facing significant losses. The average price for STH is currently around $100k, while the price of BTC is at $88k.
⚠️ This means that most short-term investors are in the red, and if the price of BTC fluctuates significantly, a sell-off effect could happen at any moment.
The market is in a downturn, and everyone is experiencing heavy losses; let's hope there are no more unexpected changes in the coming days 😥
#bitcoin #STH #BTC #coinglass
🆕 According to CoinGlass, STH – short-term holders of Bitcoin are facing significant losses. The average price for STH is currently around $100k, while the price of BTC is at $88k.
⚠️ This means that most short-term investors are in the red, and if the price of BTC fluctuates significantly, a sell-off effect could happen at any moment.
The market is in a downturn, and everyone is experiencing heavy losses; let's hope there are no more unexpected changes in the coming days 😥
#bitcoin #STH #BTC #coinglass
🟢 Short-Term Holders Back in the Green
🚀 New investors (holding < 1 month) are now seeing a +3.73% realized gain, riding the latest price rally.
📈 A bullish short-term signal — fresh capital is back in profit.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #MarketUpdate #STH #OnChain
🚀 New investors (holding < 1 month) are now seeing a +3.73% realized gain, riding the latest price rally.
📈 A bullish short-term signal — fresh capital is back in profit.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #MarketUpdate #STH #OnChain
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Attention between data and news 🔔
Experts comment ⭐Most recently, the market leader fell almost 8% between February and April 2025 when the price of Bitcoin fell below the Realized Price #STH Kesmeci pointed out that, on average, these consolidation phases lasted 77 days and each resulted in a loss of almost 10% in the value of #BTC
Kesmeci concluded that the price of #Bitcoin could enter a consolidation/correction phase if it closes the week and perhaps the month below the Realized Price STH, around $111,500. And if history repeats itself, investors could see the market lose up to 10% in the next two or three months
Experts comment ⭐Most recently, the market leader fell almost 8% between February and April 2025 when the price of Bitcoin fell below the Realized Price #STH Kesmeci pointed out that, on average, these consolidation phases lasted 77 days and each resulted in a loss of almost 10% in the value of #BTC
Kesmeci concluded that the price of #Bitcoin could enter a consolidation/correction phase if it closes the week and perhaps the month below the Realized Price STH, around $111,500. And if history repeats itself, investors could see the market lose up to 10% in the next two or three months
$BTC BTC WARNING SIGNAL: SHORT-TERM HOLDERS ARE UNDERWATER
Bitcoin is still trading below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price — and that’s a big deal.
📉 STH Realized Price: $101,263
📍 Current BTC Price: ~$88K
Translation?
Recent buyers are deeply underwater.
Historically, when BTC trades below the STH realized price, it signals stress, frustration, and weak conviction among newer market participants. These holders are the most sensitive to price — and they’re often the ones who capitulate first.
This environment usually leads to one of two outcomes:
🩸 Further downside as weak hands exit and price searches for real demand
🔄 Or a sharp reclaim of the realized price, forcing shorts and sidelined buyers to chase
Right now, the market is choosing neither — it’s compressing.
That tells us something important:
👉 Pain is unresolved.
Until BTC reclaims ~$100K, rallies risk being sold into. But the longer price stays below STH cost basis, the more fuel builds for a violent move once pressure breaks.
Discomfort is the setup. Resolution is the trade.
#Bitcoin #OnChain #STH #CryptoMarket
Bitcoin is still trading below the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price — and that’s a big deal.
📉 STH Realized Price: $101,263
📍 Current BTC Price: ~$88K
Translation?
Recent buyers are deeply underwater.
Historically, when BTC trades below the STH realized price, it signals stress, frustration, and weak conviction among newer market participants. These holders are the most sensitive to price — and they’re often the ones who capitulate first.
This environment usually leads to one of two outcomes:
🩸 Further downside as weak hands exit and price searches for real demand
🔄 Or a sharp reclaim of the realized price, forcing shorts and sidelined buyers to chase
Right now, the market is choosing neither — it’s compressing.
That tells us something important:
👉 Pain is unresolved.
Until BTC reclaims ~$100K, rallies risk being sold into. But the longer price stays below STH cost basis, the more fuel builds for a violent move once pressure breaks.
Discomfort is the setup. Resolution is the trade.
#Bitcoin #OnChain #STH #CryptoMarket
The FTX Ghost Just Returned to Haunt BTC
Realized losses for $BTC have just spiked to levels we have not witnessed since the collapse of FTX in late 2022. This is not merely a technical dip; it signals a period of intense, fear-driven capitulation among a specific class of investors.
The data is clear: Short-Term Holders (STHs)—those who entered the market in the last few weeks or months—are the primary drivers of this selling pressure. They are liquidating positions at a loss, reinforcing the current cycle of uncertainty and heightened caution across the entire digital asset landscape. This kind of structural pain is necessary to flush out the weak hands, but the immediate sentiment remains extremely brittle. We need confirmation that this wave of STH fear is fully exhausted before we can confidently look for a sustainable rebound in $ETH and the wider crypto ecosystem.
This is not investment advice.
#CryptoAnalysis
#Bitcoin
#MarketSentiment
#OnChain
#STH
🧐
Realized losses for $BTC have just spiked to levels we have not witnessed since the collapse of FTX in late 2022. This is not merely a technical dip; it signals a period of intense, fear-driven capitulation among a specific class of investors.
The data is clear: Short-Term Holders (STHs)—those who entered the market in the last few weeks or months—are the primary drivers of this selling pressure. They are liquidating positions at a loss, reinforcing the current cycle of uncertainty and heightened caution across the entire digital asset landscape. This kind of structural pain is necessary to flush out the weak hands, but the immediate sentiment remains extremely brittle. We need confirmation that this wave of STH fear is fully exhausted before we can confidently look for a sustainable rebound in $ETH and the wider crypto ecosystem.
This is not investment advice.
#CryptoAnalysis
#Bitcoin
#MarketSentiment
#OnChain
#STH
🧐
Is This the Final Shakeout Before Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Analysts Break It Down
#Bitcoin’s recent price action has shown signs of stagnation, with the asset hovering around the $84,000 mark after rebounding above it earlier this week. As of the time of writing, #BTC is trading at $84,449, down 0.7% in the past 24 hours.
Despite recovering from previous corrections, the price has struggled to break through the current resistance level, signaling weak buying momentum and cautious sentiment among traders.
#Bitcoin #STH -#SOPR and Realized Price Indicate Capitulation
The current phase of consolidation follows weeks of volatile swings driven by broader macroeconomic uncertainty and mixed signals across risk assets.
While long-term holders remain steady, short-term participants in the market appear to be under pressure. Insights into the behavior of these short-term holders may offer valuable clues on the overall direction of the market and possible entry or exit points for investors.
According to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant contributor CryptoMe, data from short-term holders (STHs) reveals key indicators that could help define Bitcoin’s current cycle.
The first metric highlighted is the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures whether STHs are selling at a profit (above 1.0) or at a loss (below 1.0).
STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR). | Source: CryptoQuant
Currently, this metric is below 1.0 based on a 14-day moving average, indicating that many STHs are offloading BTC at a loss—a signal often associated with capitulation phases.
While this suggests bearish sentiment in the short term, CryptoMe points out that similar dips in STH-SOPR during past bull markets often presented accumulation opportunities.
Historically, these periods of loss-taking by STHs have marked temporary bottoms, with prices rebounding shortly after as stronger hands absorb supply.
Accumulation Opportunities and Strategy Outlook
Another key metric shared is the STH Realized Price, currently around $92,000. This figure represents the average cost basis for coins held by short-term investors.
Bitcoin STH Realized Price. | Source: CryptoQuant
When $BTC trades below this level, it can indicate undervaluation relative to recent buyer activity. In CryptoMe’s view, red zones (in the chart), periods when the spot price dips below the realized price, have often coincided with long-term accumulation zones during previous bullish phases.
However, CryptoMe cautions that these indicators do not confirm a market bottom. Instead, they suggest that some investors are exiting positions under stress, creating potential buying opportunities for those with a long-term outlook.
Given the broader macroeconomic pressures, the analyst maintains a hedged strategy: accumulating in spot markets while maintaining short positions in derivatives to manage downside risk.
He concludes by stating that if macroeconomic conditions improve and liquidity returns to the market, Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory. Until then, the data suggests patience and risk management may be prudent for market participants awaiting a clearer trend reversal.
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com
Despite recovering from previous corrections, the price has struggled to break through the current resistance level, signaling weak buying momentum and cautious sentiment among traders.
#Bitcoin #STH -#SOPR and Realized Price Indicate Capitulation
The current phase of consolidation follows weeks of volatile swings driven by broader macroeconomic uncertainty and mixed signals across risk assets.
While long-term holders remain steady, short-term participants in the market appear to be under pressure. Insights into the behavior of these short-term holders may offer valuable clues on the overall direction of the market and possible entry or exit points for investors.
According to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant contributor CryptoMe, data from short-term holders (STHs) reveals key indicators that could help define Bitcoin’s current cycle.
The first metric highlighted is the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures whether STHs are selling at a profit (above 1.0) or at a loss (below 1.0).
STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR). | Source: CryptoQuant
Currently, this metric is below 1.0 based on a 14-day moving average, indicating that many STHs are offloading BTC at a loss—a signal often associated with capitulation phases.
While this suggests bearish sentiment in the short term, CryptoMe points out that similar dips in STH-SOPR during past bull markets often presented accumulation opportunities.
Historically, these periods of loss-taking by STHs have marked temporary bottoms, with prices rebounding shortly after as stronger hands absorb supply.
Accumulation Opportunities and Strategy Outlook
Another key metric shared is the STH Realized Price, currently around $92,000. This figure represents the average cost basis for coins held by short-term investors.
Bitcoin STH Realized Price. | Source: CryptoQuant
When $BTC trades below this level, it can indicate undervaluation relative to recent buyer activity. In CryptoMe’s view, red zones (in the chart), periods when the spot price dips below the realized price, have often coincided with long-term accumulation zones during previous bullish phases.
However, CryptoMe cautions that these indicators do not confirm a market bottom. Instead, they suggest that some investors are exiting positions under stress, creating potential buying opportunities for those with a long-term outlook.
Given the broader macroeconomic pressures, the analyst maintains a hedged strategy: accumulating in spot markets while maintaining short positions in derivatives to manage downside risk.
He concludes by stating that if macroeconomic conditions improve and liquidity returns to the market, Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory. Until then, the data suggests patience and risk management may be prudent for market participants awaiting a clearer trend reversal.
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com
📊 The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sits at $113.2K
Bulls will need to reclaim this level to shift momentum
Expect short-term bearish pressure until this support is firmly established
#BTC #PriceAnalysis #STH $BTC
Bulls will need to reclaim this level to shift momentum
Expect short-term bearish pressure until this support is firmly established
#BTC #PriceAnalysis #STH $BTC
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📉 WHY BITCOIN FELL FROM $126,000: ANALYSIS OF CRYPTOQUANT
CryptoQuant analysts revealed the true reason for the collapse — not whales, but the panic of short-term holders (STH).
KEY FACTORS:
· STH Capitulation: SOPR consistently below 1 — selling at a loss
· Young Coins: The main volume of sales comes from coins younger than 3 months
· Margin Liquidations: Stops and leverage created a chain reaction
LONG-TERM HOLDERS (LTH):
· Sold within normal limits for the mid-cycle
· Not a mass sell-off, but profit-taking
· Activity is far from the peaks of 2021
IMPORTANT SIGNAL:
Realized Cap continues to grow — new money is entering the market, fundamental demand remains.
VERDICT:
This is a deep but typical correction of the bull cycle. The cycle is not broken, but the market showed fragility under thin liquidity and overloaded STH.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #CryptoQuant #Анализ #STH #LTH
CryptoQuant analysts revealed the true reason for the collapse — not whales, but the panic of short-term holders (STH).
KEY FACTORS:
· STH Capitulation: SOPR consistently below 1 — selling at a loss
· Young Coins: The main volume of sales comes from coins younger than 3 months
· Margin Liquidations: Stops and leverage created a chain reaction
LONG-TERM HOLDERS (LTH):
· Sold within normal limits for the mid-cycle
· Not a mass sell-off, but profit-taking
· Activity is far from the peaks of 2021
IMPORTANT SIGNAL:
Realized Cap continues to grow — new money is entering the market, fundamental demand remains.
VERDICT:
This is a deep but typical correction of the bull cycle. The cycle is not broken, but the market showed fragility under thin liquidity and overloaded STH.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #CryptoQuant #Анализ #STH #LTH
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