$AVGO $TSM $NVDA Intel has offloaded, added to the position several times without making much profit. Went to bed early yesterday and missed the peak for a take-profit.
NVIDIA's earnings report is dropping late at night; getting ready to switch positions to play the NVIDIA earnings game.
The core bet is simple: the overall earnings are bright, mainly betting that next quarter's guidance will significantly exceed expectations.
What really drives the market isn't the current earnings but the guidance for the next quarter.
Not directly buying NVIDIA stock!
Only playing AVGO Broadcom + TSMC.
Broadcom has strong elasticity, deeply tied to NVIDIA's AI clusters, NVLink, and high-speed chips.
TSMC has a solid foundation, being the exclusive foundry for NVIDIA's entire GPU lineup, a logical win for underlying demand!
The optimal play is actually SMCI Supermicro, but Binance hasn't listed it, so I can't participate and have to pass.
Surely, some are wondering why not just buy the leading NVIDIA directly?
Earnings arbitrage + shadow stock trading,
As long as NVIDIA's next quarter guidance explodes, the upstream supply chain can actually see a rebound + emotional double-tap, with elasticity far greater than the leading stock itself.
📌 The key watershed is just one:
If next quarter's guidance significantly exceeds expectations: stocks like AVGO and TSMC, which are upstream shadow stocks, are likely to surge collectively for an arbitrage opportunity;
If the guidance is mediocre, just meeting expectations: the good news is priced in, the upstream may not only fail to rise but could also easily drop and incur losses.
📌 So if you want to ride this wave like me:
Have confidence in betting that NVIDIA's next quarter guidance will be bright enough, rather than just looking at this current earnings report!
If you don't have that confidence and can't bear the unknown risks, then it's best not to participate, just watch the show.
#英伟达财报公布 #avgo