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$SPY Setup Week of Monday 01/12/26. Important Setup. ⚠️
1) SPY built this complex compression structure shown below as DMZ1, as predicted before, the market intention was to protect this triangle / diamond, and seal it which happened. Is this thrust engine enough to ignite and launch us higher? Friday showed: not yet.
2) Did the market build this structure since the October macro top on 10/29/26 to go destroy it in early 2026?
3) My thought is no. The technicals show exhaustion as of Friday: CPC 0.75, Front $VIX inversion elevated > 1.2, $SVIX double-top at $25, #VIX 1D down 38%, all screaming correct/reset technicals on Monday. VIX uncrush ✅️
4) Even before the Powell story, I published the chart below, showing how if the market pokes again at the DMZ surface at $689 and lose this level, SPY will need to retest next major support at $671, see the fine gray lines below. This will build another thrust engine to go higher. More compression, not distribution, to go higher. The twin engine model.
5) I disagree with the calls for a crash here. This engine is primed for higher, and once it comes back from the final shockwave down, it will ignite with a gap-up above $689 that will leave the bears behind.
6) This is the setup I see.
7) Those looking for a repeat of last year's 20% drop may have to wait much longer. Mrs. Market will be ready to hand them a pie in the face. It is too easy to repeat the cycle from last year, week for week, and this is where the trap is. If this were true, everyone will be rich going into a February crash identical to Feb 2025. They don't make it that easy.
8) Can they go for two identical triangles, testing lower? But respecting $671 support will be more bullish.
9) If we don't lose $689 and the seal remains in place, then this current engine can ignite.
10) Please note how disruptive news keep coming at key $DXY levels. Refer to my earlier post on the US Dollar.
This is part of a longer article published for the subs earlier which also included the exact next high $VIX date for Jan 2026.
1) SPY built this complex compression structure shown below as DMZ1, as predicted before, the market intention was to protect this triangle / diamond, and seal it which happened. Is this thrust engine enough to ignite and launch us higher? Friday showed: not yet.
2) Did the market build this structure since the October macro top on 10/29/26 to go destroy it in early 2026?
3) My thought is no. The technicals show exhaustion as of Friday: CPC 0.75, Front $VIX inversion elevated > 1.2, $SVIX double-top at $25, #VIX 1D down 38%, all screaming correct/reset technicals on Monday. VIX uncrush ✅️
4) Even before the Powell story, I published the chart below, showing how if the market pokes again at the DMZ surface at $689 and lose this level, SPY will need to retest next major support at $671, see the fine gray lines below. This will build another thrust engine to go higher. More compression, not distribution, to go higher. The twin engine model.
5) I disagree with the calls for a crash here. This engine is primed for higher, and once it comes back from the final shockwave down, it will ignite with a gap-up above $689 that will leave the bears behind.
6) This is the setup I see.
7) Those looking for a repeat of last year's 20% drop may have to wait much longer. Mrs. Market will be ready to hand them a pie in the face. It is too easy to repeat the cycle from last year, week for week, and this is where the trap is. If this were true, everyone will be rich going into a February crash identical to Feb 2025. They don't make it that easy.
8) Can they go for two identical triangles, testing lower? But respecting $671 support will be more bullish.
9) If we don't lose $689 and the seal remains in place, then this current engine can ignite.
10) Please note how disruptive news keep coming at key $DXY levels. Refer to my earlier post on the US Dollar.
This is part of a longer article published for the subs earlier which also included the exact next high $VIX date for Jan 2026.
Volatility Has All But Vanished
Heading into Powell’s Jackson Hole address, volatility across global markets has dropped to multi-year lows. This suggests traders are confident about a dovish outcome. But when markets get too comfortable, surprises hurt the most. If Powell hints at “higher for longer” rates, even with a small cut, complacent markets could react sharply.
The Fed Chair is known for trying to calm markets, but he also dislikes being cornered by investor assumptions. If Powell feels expectations are too dovish, he may intentionally push back. That could mean a return of volatility to stocks, bonds, and even crypto, which has been tracking macro sentiment closely.
#PowellWatch #VIX #JacksonHole
Heading into Powell’s Jackson Hole address, volatility across global markets has dropped to multi-year lows. This suggests traders are confident about a dovish outcome. But when markets get too comfortable, surprises hurt the most. If Powell hints at “higher for longer” rates, even with a small cut, complacent markets could react sharply.
The Fed Chair is known for trying to calm markets, but he also dislikes being cornered by investor assumptions. If Powell feels expectations are too dovish, he may intentionally push back. That could mean a return of volatility to stocks, bonds, and even crypto, which has been tracking macro sentiment closely.
#PowellWatch #VIX #JacksonHole
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How much has the drop so far?!
The drop in the VIX is clear in the image:
It dropped by 6.51 points, or -13.86%.
This is a very large drop for an index that measures "fear" in the markets!
Fear Collapse!
The VIX Index fell by more than 13% in a single day!
Are the markets starting to regain confidence? Or is this the calm before the storm?
Watch the movements—sometimes the calm is more dangerous than the noise!
#VIX #SP500 #Volatility #WallStreet
The drop in the VIX is clear in the image:
It dropped by 6.51 points, or -13.86%.
This is a very large drop for an index that measures "fear" in the markets!
Fear Collapse!
The VIX Index fell by more than 13% in a single day!
Are the markets starting to regain confidence? Or is this the calm before the storm?
Watch the movements—sometimes the calm is more dangerous than the noise!
#VIX #SP500 #Volatility #WallStreet
#VIX daily RSI has reached the overbought zone.
Also, VIX pumped above 22 on Friday, which has often acted as a strong resistance.
It's highly likely that VIX has topped out, and we could see some bidding next week.
Also, VIX pumped above 22 on Friday, which has often acted as a strong resistance.
It's highly likely that VIX has topped out, and we could see some bidding next week.
See original
Daily summary, let's talk about the market, the market can be seen at #BTC .
It can be clearly stated:
1 Short term, the imitation has no chance.
2 Short term, $BTC has profit realization pressure, observe the pressure level distribution, observe the contract distribution.
3 Long term, #VIX is historically rare at low levels, looking at more than 8 weeks has a very high win rate.
4 Long term, the liquidity cycle, #Aİ the narrative remains unchanged.
Basically clear:
December interest rate cut certainty.
To be observed:
Tomorrow the US stock market opens.
It can be clearly stated:
1 Short term, the imitation has no chance.
2 Short term, $BTC has profit realization pressure, observe the pressure level distribution, observe the contract distribution.
3 Long term, #VIX is historically rare at low levels, looking at more than 8 weeks has a very high win rate.
4 Long term, the liquidity cycle, #Aİ the narrative remains unchanged.
Basically clear:
December interest rate cut certainty.
To be observed:
Tomorrow the US stock market opens.
#VIX
The S&P 500 VIX volatility index is at its lowest levels.
Historically, when the VIX is below 20, and now at 15, it is a starting point for sharp movements in the market.
Stock market volatility = crypto market volatility.
Markets grow slowly but fall quickly.
I'm not expecting any apocalypse, but a normal correction will be enough to reboot before the fall cycle.
Earlier, I showed crypto market statistics for August, historically the weakest month of the year. Let's see how it goes this time.
The S&P 500 VIX volatility index is at its lowest levels.
Historically, when the VIX is below 20, and now at 15, it is a starting point for sharp movements in the market.
Stock market volatility = crypto market volatility.
Markets grow slowly but fall quickly.
I'm not expecting any apocalypse, but a normal correction will be enough to reboot before the fall cycle.
Earlier, I showed crypto market statistics for August, historically the weakest month of the year. Let's see how it goes this time.
#MarketTurbulence
“#MARKETTURBULENCE: Volatility Returns, Will Your Portfolio Hold Up? 🌊📉
The 2025 market roller coaster is back in action! The VIX ‘fear gauge’ recently jumped 21% in just days, from ~17.4 to over 21, signaling rising nerves among investors. Even though the VIX now sits near 14.8, any uptick means serious attention ahead.
This surge reflects broader instability:
Goldman Sachs warns of a 10% chance of a correction in the next 3 months, and 20% within a year, citing a softening job market and inflation fears.
Global growth is slowing to just 3% in 2025, ramping up recession concerns across asset classes.
Why It Matters Now:
Spikes in volatility rarely signal calm—they’re often a prelude to sharper moves.
Diversifying with bonds, dividend stocks, or global equities may offer stability.
Time in the market still often beats attempting to time the market. The VIX is a signal—not the whole story.
Are you riding this wave or waiting on the sidelines?
🔄 = Riding the volatility
🛡️ = Playing defense
⏳ = Waiting for calm before jumping in
#MarketTurbulence #VolatilityWarning #VIX #Diversify
“#MARKETTURBULENCE: Volatility Returns, Will Your Portfolio Hold Up? 🌊📉
The 2025 market roller coaster is back in action! The VIX ‘fear gauge’ recently jumped 21% in just days, from ~17.4 to over 21, signaling rising nerves among investors. Even though the VIX now sits near 14.8, any uptick means serious attention ahead.
This surge reflects broader instability:
Goldman Sachs warns of a 10% chance of a correction in the next 3 months, and 20% within a year, citing a softening job market and inflation fears.
Global growth is slowing to just 3% in 2025, ramping up recession concerns across asset classes.
Why It Matters Now:
Spikes in volatility rarely signal calm—they’re often a prelude to sharper moves.
Diversifying with bonds, dividend stocks, or global equities may offer stability.
Time in the market still often beats attempting to time the market. The VIX is a signal—not the whole story.
Are you riding this wave or waiting on the sidelines?
🔄 = Riding the volatility
🛡️ = Playing defense
⏳ = Waiting for calm before jumping in
#MarketTurbulence #VolatilityWarning #VIX #Diversify
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The VIX Volatility Index, also known as the "Volatility Index", is considered an important tool in the world of investment and finance as it provides insight into the expectations and future volatility in the stock market.
Simply put,
If the VIX Index is high: it means that investors expect significant changes in stock prices soon, whether up or down, indicating concern or uncertainty in the market. 😟📉
If the VIX Index is low: this means that investors expect relative stability in the market, with slight changes in stock prices, indicating confidence and calm in the market. 😌📈
How is VIX calculated?
VIX is calculated based on the current prices of options contracts linked to the S&P 500 index, and options contracts are financial instruments that allow investors to bet on the direction of the market (whether up or down) over a specified period.
When there is high demand for these contracts, especially those that protect against significant declines, the VIX Index rises. 📊🤔
Its importance:
* Measuring the overall market sentiment: it gives #VIX a picture of the level of concern or confidence in the market. 😟↔️😌
* A tool for hedging: some investors use the VIX as a means to hedge against unexpected volatility. 🛡️
* Used as an indicator to measure "fear" in the market. 😨
How can investors benefit from VIX?
* Predicting market movements
* Developing hedging strategies
* Guiding investment decisions
Simply put,
If the VIX Index is high: it means that investors expect significant changes in stock prices soon, whether up or down, indicating concern or uncertainty in the market. 😟📉
If the VIX Index is low: this means that investors expect relative stability in the market, with slight changes in stock prices, indicating confidence and calm in the market. 😌📈
How is VIX calculated?
VIX is calculated based on the current prices of options contracts linked to the S&P 500 index, and options contracts are financial instruments that allow investors to bet on the direction of the market (whether up or down) over a specified period.
When there is high demand for these contracts, especially those that protect against significant declines, the VIX Index rises. 📊🤔
Its importance:
* Measuring the overall market sentiment: it gives #VIX a picture of the level of concern or confidence in the market. 😟↔️😌
* A tool for hedging: some investors use the VIX as a means to hedge against unexpected volatility. 🛡️
* Used as an indicator to measure "fear" in the market. 😨
How can investors benefit from VIX?
* Predicting market movements
* Developing hedging strategies
* Guiding investment decisions
See original
According to the analysis of leading analysts
The large increase in the spread between near-term VIX futures (January) and the third-month futures "March" typically occurs during periods of extreme anxiety and uncertainty in the market, where traders are pricing in a significant likelihood of increased volatility in the near future.
However, after this increase, the spread between the contracts began to gradually decline to nearly equal levels, indicating that fears may have started to dissipate and that the market may have begun to stabilize.
Based on the available data, this suggests that these periods often serve as a bottoming phase in the markets, where the market reaches its lowest levels and will begin to improve gradually.
#VIX
#FearIndex
#MarketFear
The large increase in the spread between near-term VIX futures (January) and the third-month futures "March" typically occurs during periods of extreme anxiety and uncertainty in the market, where traders are pricing in a significant likelihood of increased volatility in the near future.
However, after this increase, the spread between the contracts began to gradually decline to nearly equal levels, indicating that fears may have started to dissipate and that the market may have begun to stabilize.
Based on the available data, this suggests that these periods often serve as a bottoming phase in the markets, where the market reaches its lowest levels and will begin to improve gradually.
#VIX
#FearIndex
#MarketFear
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📊 Increase in Volatility #VIX
As shown in the Volatility Index chart, the current drop is comparable to the three major previous drops: COVID in 2020 and the war in Gaza in the summer of 2024.
A peak of this kind, as history demonstrates, is temporary and marks the end of the drop. It represents the moment of greatest human fear and the maximum points on the chart 📉.
It is likely that we have already passed the peak of the drop or will do so in the next 1-3 weeks.
#VIX #IndiceMiedoYAvaricia #TrendingTopic #StopLossStrategies #TradingSignals $USDC
As shown in the Volatility Index chart, the current drop is comparable to the three major previous drops: COVID in 2020 and the war in Gaza in the summer of 2024.
A peak of this kind, as history demonstrates, is temporary and marks the end of the drop. It represents the moment of greatest human fear and the maximum points on the chart 📉.
It is likely that we have already passed the peak of the drop or will do so in the next 1-3 weeks.
#VIX #IndiceMiedoYAvaricia #TrendingTopic #StopLossStrategies #TradingSignals $USDC
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$BTC
The analyst expects that the decline in the VIX index could push the price of Bitcoin to $135,000
Futures contracts for the VIX index (VIX) dropped by about 3% today; the pace of declines slowed from yesterday's session, which exceeded 3% for the futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, with the US500 and US100 indices rising between 0.8% and 1% before the US market opens.
After today's US trading session, Tesla will announce its earnings, and Alphabet (GOOGL.US) will also release its results on Thursday. This is likely to keep volatility in the tech sector - and thus in the S&P 500 index - elevated for a while. Verizon's earnings report today caused the company's stock to drop by about 5%, but shares of GE Aerospace and Lockheed Martin are rising between 1% and 2% following their reports.
Alongside Tesla's earnings, Alphabet's results on Thursday will attract special attention, as they will shed light on the real situation and outlook for the tech sector. This is likely to lead to increased volatility in the stocks of major tech companies, especially those related to cloud computing (Amazon and Microsoft) and the advertising sector (Meta Platforms). The decline in the volatility index (VIX) accelerated after the index approached the "fear" threshold at around 30.
#VIX #BTC
The analyst expects that the decline in the VIX index could push the price of Bitcoin to $135,000
Futures contracts for the VIX index (VIX) dropped by about 3% today; the pace of declines slowed from yesterday's session, which exceeded 3% for the futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, with the US500 and US100 indices rising between 0.8% and 1% before the US market opens.
After today's US trading session, Tesla will announce its earnings, and Alphabet (GOOGL.US) will also release its results on Thursday. This is likely to keep volatility in the tech sector - and thus in the S&P 500 index - elevated for a while. Verizon's earnings report today caused the company's stock to drop by about 5%, but shares of GE Aerospace and Lockheed Martin are rising between 1% and 2% following their reports.
Alongside Tesla's earnings, Alphabet's results on Thursday will attract special attention, as they will shed light on the real situation and outlook for the tech sector. This is likely to lead to increased volatility in the stocks of major tech companies, especially those related to cloud computing (Amazon and Microsoft) and the advertising sector (Meta Platforms). The decline in the volatility index (VIX) accelerated after the index approached the "fear" threshold at around 30.
#VIX #BTC
🚨 MARKET ALERT: VOLATILITY EXPLODES! 🚨
The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) just skyrocketed 30%, signaling a major surge in market uncertainty! Traders and investors are on edge—what’s driving this spike, and how should you prepare?
🔹 Is this a sign of a market downturn?
🔹 Flight to safety or a golden opportunity?
🔹 Smart money moves in volatile times!
Stay ahead of the game—drop your thoughts in the comments! 📉🔥 #StockMarket #VIX #Investing #CircleIPO #TrumpTariffs $BTC $ETH $BNB
The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) just skyrocketed 30%, signaling a major surge in market uncertainty! Traders and investors are on edge—what’s driving this spike, and how should you prepare?
🔹 Is this a sign of a market downturn?
🔹 Flight to safety or a golden opportunity?
🔹 Smart money moves in volatile times!
Stay ahead of the game—drop your thoughts in the comments! 📉🔥 #StockMarket #VIX #Investing #CircleIPO #TrumpTariffs $BTC $ETH $BNB
welcome
$VIX (DJIA Volatility Index) just flashed a wake-up signal! ⚠️
Volatility spiked +4.60% to 17.75 breaking out from its calm base zone after weeks of compression. 📈
This could be the calm before the next market storm 🌪️
If volatility keeps climbing above 20, brace for turbulence in equities. 🚨
#DJIA #VIX #VolatilityIndex #Stock market
Volatility spiked +4.60% to 17.75 breaking out from its calm base zone after weeks of compression. 📈
This could be the calm before the next market storm 🌪️
If volatility keeps climbing above 20, brace for turbulence in equities. 🚨
#DJIA #VIX #VolatilityIndex #Stock market
#VIX $BTC #GOLD
***Turbulent Ground (17–23 range) → *Current zone***
*VIX is sitting right on the edge of this zone around ~20.**
* This indicates **rising tension** in the market.
* Investors are starting to hedge.
* Risk is increasing but **not yet alarming**.
* VIX 18–22 often precedes **short-term S&P pullbacks** of –3% to –7%.
***For crypto:***
* Rising VIX usually means :
* Short-term BTC pullbacks,
* Altcoins become more volatile,
* Flight to safety (BTC > Alts).
***Turbulent Ground (17–23 range) → *Current zone***
*VIX is sitting right on the edge of this zone around ~20.**
* This indicates **rising tension** in the market.
* Investors are starting to hedge.
* Risk is increasing but **not yet alarming**.
* VIX 18–22 often precedes **short-term S&P pullbacks** of –3% to –7%.
***For crypto:***
* Rising VIX usually means :
* Short-term BTC pullbacks,
* Altcoins become more volatile,
* Flight to safety (BTC > Alts).
See original
⚠️☄️ Triple Witching Day is today
#ФРС has already lowered the rate by 25 basis points — the main event is ahead: today (September 19) there is a large quarterly expiration of derivatives.
❗️What is important now:
🎭 Triple Witching Day: futures on indices, options on indices, and stock options all expire on the same day. This usually intensifies movements.
💥 According to #SpotGamma , about $6.3 trillion in options are expiring this week — one of the largest volumes.
🗓 #VIX -expiration and the Fed decision are already behind us — now the market reaction may be intensified by the "Witching Friday".
🧱 At the end of the month — the quarterly expiration of the "JPMorgan collar": in case of a downturn, it can provide local support to the market.
📌What traders should do:
-Check positions and hedge (especially for short-term options).
-Monitor volatility and liquidity near opening/closing.
-Daily plan — in advance, without improvisation.
‼️IMPORTANT: Leave reactions under the posts to understand if it is useful to you or not.
#ФРС has already lowered the rate by 25 basis points — the main event is ahead: today (September 19) there is a large quarterly expiration of derivatives.
❗️What is important now:
🎭 Triple Witching Day: futures on indices, options on indices, and stock options all expire on the same day. This usually intensifies movements.
💥 According to #SpotGamma , about $6.3 trillion in options are expiring this week — one of the largest volumes.
🗓 #VIX -expiration and the Fed decision are already behind us — now the market reaction may be intensified by the "Witching Friday".
🧱 At the end of the month — the quarterly expiration of the "JPMorgan collar": in case of a downturn, it can provide local support to the market.
📌What traders should do:
-Check positions and hedge (especially for short-term options).
-Monitor volatility and liquidity near opening/closing.
-Daily plan — in advance, without improvisation.
‼️IMPORTANT: Leave reactions under the posts to understand if it is useful to you or not.
**📈 HISTORY SAYS: BUY WHEN THERE'S BLOOD IN THE STREETS**
You've heard the legendary phrase: **"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."** It turns out this isn't just wisdom—it's a statistically proven strategy.
Decades of data from the S&P 500 (1991–2022) show that spikes in the **Volatility Index ($VIX)**—the market's "fear gauge"—have been some of the most powerful buy signals in history.
**🎯 The "Fear Threshold" for Massive Gains**
The data reveals a clear line in the sand where panic turns into profit:
- **VIX > 33.5 (Extreme Fear):** When fear peaked, the market roared back with an **average 12-month return of +27%**.
- **VIX 28.7 – 33.5 (High Fear):** Still delivered an impressive **+16% return** in the following year.
**😌 Complacency Pays, But Panic Pays MORE**
Even buying in calm markets worked, but the real alpha was in buying the panic:
- **VIX 11.3 – 12.0 (Complacency):** Solid **+15% return**.
- **Conclusion? Buying at a VIX of 12 feels safe, but buying at a VIX of 33 is where life-changing money is made.**
**⚡ The Crypto Connection**
While this is equity data, the psychology is universal. In crypto, extreme fear—seen in rapid liquidations, negative funding rates, and a plummeting Crypto Fear & Greed Index—has consistently marked major bottoms.
When the charts look the most terrifying and weak hands are selling at a loss... that's historically when the foundations for the next bull run are laid.
**The lesson is clear: The greatest opportunities are born from the deepest fears.**
$DOT $DASH $DEEP
**Follow for more actionable market insights!**
#Trading #Investing #VIX #Crypto #FearAndGreed
You've heard the legendary phrase: **"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."** It turns out this isn't just wisdom—it's a statistically proven strategy.
Decades of data from the S&P 500 (1991–2022) show that spikes in the **Volatility Index ($VIX)**—the market's "fear gauge"—have been some of the most powerful buy signals in history.
**🎯 The "Fear Threshold" for Massive Gains**
The data reveals a clear line in the sand where panic turns into profit:
- **VIX > 33.5 (Extreme Fear):** When fear peaked, the market roared back with an **average 12-month return of +27%**.
- **VIX 28.7 – 33.5 (High Fear):** Still delivered an impressive **+16% return** in the following year.
**😌 Complacency Pays, But Panic Pays MORE**
Even buying in calm markets worked, but the real alpha was in buying the panic:
- **VIX 11.3 – 12.0 (Complacency):** Solid **+15% return**.
- **Conclusion? Buying at a VIX of 12 feels safe, but buying at a VIX of 33 is where life-changing money is made.**
**⚡ The Crypto Connection**
While this is equity data, the psychology is universal. In crypto, extreme fear—seen in rapid liquidations, negative funding rates, and a plummeting Crypto Fear & Greed Index—has consistently marked major bottoms.
When the charts look the most terrifying and weak hands are selling at a loss... that's historically when the foundations for the next bull run are laid.
**The lesson is clear: The greatest opportunities are born from the deepest fears.**
$DOT $DASH $DEEP
**Follow for more actionable market insights!**
#Trading #Investing #VIX #Crypto #FearAndGreed
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