๐๐BTC FUTURE ANALYSIS
BTC saw a massive rally toward the $120,000+ range in late 2025, but the monthly candles for November and December showed heavy profit-taking (long upper wicks).
โCurrent Price (Jan 2026): We are currently trading in a broad range between $89,000 and $96,500.
โBuyer Behavior: Institutional "Whales" are using this monthly consolidation to accumulate. Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) just disclosed a purchase of 13,627 BTC at an average price of $91,519. This provides a massive "floor" of support in the $90k region.
โ๐ Mid/Short-Timeframe Analysis (4h & 1h Charts)
โThis is where the immediate "Bear Flag" pattern you noticed is most visible.
โ1. Seller & Buyer Battle (Order Flow)
โSellers (The Resistance): The $96,500 level is acting as a "brick wall." Every time price approaches this, sellers (likely short-term speculators and "tourist" capital) dump supply to protect their positions.
โBuyers (The Support): Buyers are aggressively defending the $93,955 level. We see high buying volume whenever we dip toward $92k, as institutions try to match Strategyโs entry price.
โ2. Elliott Wave Perspective
โCurrent Structure: We are likely in a Corrective Wave 4 (Horizontal or Flag) on the 4h chart.
โThe Prediction: Corrective waves usually resolve in the direction of the previous major move. Since the move into this flag was a sharp drop from $100k+, the wave theory suggests one more "Wave 5" leg down to flush out late longs before a true bottom is found.
โ๐ฏ Future BTC Behavior & "Accurate" Trade Plan
โBased on the Bear Flag and the Net ETF Outflows ($681M recently), the most likely behavior is a liquidation hunt before a reversal.
โThe Signal: "The Springboard Trap"
โThe Move: Expect a "fake-out" pump toward $97,500 to trap early shorts, followed by a rapid breakdown below $93,955.
โThe Target: The price is likely headed for the $89,200 โ $90,500 order block. This is where the "big money" (Strategy and other whales) has its buy orders sitting.
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