#pce
pce
402,605 views
697 Discussing
Hot
Latest
$BTC crashed from $61,962 to $58,572 — PCE 4.1% broke the bounce. What now?
$BTC just broke below $59K — and now $58,572.
The PCE inflation reading of 4.1% finally caught up. From the $61,962 high today, BTC has dropped more than $3,800. The 200-week moving average break that was temporarily repaired is now back in full force.
The Fear & Greed index dropped back to 17. The entire market is bleeding — $0G -8.12%, $ADA -3.51%, AIGENSYN -12.46%.
Only $AAVE is still green at +6.18%, but even that is down from the +11.47% it had earlier.
What happened? The PCE number was the catalyst, but the real cause was structure. BTC rallied nearly $3,000 from $59K to $62K in under 48 hours on thin volume. When the PCE data hit, longs that accumulated during that rally got squeezed out.
$58,115 was today's low. If that breaks, the next stop is the $56K-$57K range. If it holds, we could see a similar bounce pattern as yesterday.
CoinRadar's quantitative system is now re-evaluating the Trend Scores across all timeframes. The 1H and 4H scores that had turned positive are now flipping back to negative. Until the higher timeframe scores stabilize, any bounce should be treated as a relief rally, not a reversal.
The 200-week MA break is now confirmed for a second time. That's rare in Bitcoin's history. The next 24 hours will determine whether this is a deeper correction or a shakeout before a recovery.
Are you buying this dip or waiting for lower levels?
#Bitcoin #BTC #PCE #CryptoMarket
$BTC just broke below $59K — and now $58,572.
The PCE inflation reading of 4.1% finally caught up. From the $61,962 high today, BTC has dropped more than $3,800. The 200-week moving average break that was temporarily repaired is now back in full force.
The Fear & Greed index dropped back to 17. The entire market is bleeding — $0G -8.12%, $ADA -3.51%, AIGENSYN -12.46%.
Only $AAVE is still green at +6.18%, but even that is down from the +11.47% it had earlier.
What happened? The PCE number was the catalyst, but the real cause was structure. BTC rallied nearly $3,000 from $59K to $62K in under 48 hours on thin volume. When the PCE data hit, longs that accumulated during that rally got squeezed out.
$58,115 was today's low. If that breaks, the next stop is the $56K-$57K range. If it holds, we could see a similar bounce pattern as yesterday.
CoinRadar's quantitative system is now re-evaluating the Trend Scores across all timeframes. The 1H and 4H scores that had turned positive are now flipping back to negative. Until the higher timeframe scores stabilize, any bounce should be treated as a relief rally, not a reversal.
The 200-week MA break is now confirmed for a second time. That's rare in Bitcoin's history. The next 24 hours will determine whether this is a deeper correction or a shakeout before a recovery.
Are you buying this dip or waiting for lower levels?
#Bitcoin #BTC #PCE #CryptoMarket
Market update
PCE and GDP just dropped.
PCE came in as expected — no surprise, no panic. But it is still well above the Fed's 2% target. No rate cut argument here. GDP on the other hand came in strong — the economy is holding up better than feared. 📊
On paper that sounds good. But for $BTC and risk assets — a strong economy with sticky inflation is actually the worst scenario. Why? 👇
🌡️ PCE: still above 2% target — inflation not cooling fast enough
📈 GDP: strong — economy not weak enough to force Fed's hand
💵 DXY gaining strength — dollar up = pressure on risk assets
✂️ Rate cuts: not happening anytime soon
A strong economy gives the Fed zero reason to cut. Sticky inflation gives them zero room to cut. And a rising dollar pulls capital away from risk assets like $BTC . The three forces are aligned — and none of them are in $BTC 's favor right now. 😬
The situation is not favorable for a rally👁️
#PCE #GDP #DXY #Fed #DYOR*
PCE and GDP just dropped.
PCE came in as expected — no surprise, no panic. But it is still well above the Fed's 2% target. No rate cut argument here. GDP on the other hand came in strong — the economy is holding up better than feared. 📊
On paper that sounds good. But for $BTC and risk assets — a strong economy with sticky inflation is actually the worst scenario. Why? 👇
🌡️ PCE: still above 2% target — inflation not cooling fast enough
📈 GDP: strong — economy not weak enough to force Fed's hand
💵 DXY gaining strength — dollar up = pressure on risk assets
✂️ Rate cuts: not happening anytime soon
A strong economy gives the Fed zero reason to cut. Sticky inflation gives them zero room to cut. And a rising dollar pulls capital away from risk assets like $BTC . The three forces are aligned — and none of them are in $BTC 's favor right now. 😬
The situation is not favorable for a rally👁️
#PCE #GDP #DXY #Fed #DYOR*
Macro Alert: US PCE hits 4.1% - 3-year high 📈
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge just printed its most aggressive rise since April 2023. What this means for markets:
Supply shock → Energy costs bleeding into supply chains
Consumer squeeze → Spending up 0.7% but savings down to 3%
Rate pressure → Banks now pricing 1-2 more hikes this year
Crypto impact: Tighter liquidity short-term. In these conditions, many traders prioritize high-liquidity assets and risk controls.
Trade majors like $BTC $SOL and more on with deep liquidity, low fees, and advanced risk tools.
Stay informed. Stay disciplined.
#Macro #PCE
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge just printed its most aggressive rise since April 2023. What this means for markets:
Supply shock → Energy costs bleeding into supply chains
Consumer squeeze → Spending up 0.7% but savings down to 3%
Rate pressure → Banks now pricing 1-2 more hikes this year
Crypto impact: Tighter liquidity short-term. In these conditions, many traders prioritize high-liquidity assets and risk controls.
Trade majors like $BTC $SOL and more on with deep liquidity, low fees, and advanced risk tools.
Stay informed. Stay disciplined.
#Macro #PCE
$BTC recovered $1,658 from $58,115 PCE low. Back at $59,773. Same bounce pattern for a second day.
$BTC is climbing back toward $60,000.
From the PCE panic low of $58,115, BTC has recovered $1,658 to $59,773. The 24h loss is now only -1.22%.
The Fear & Greed index is at 15 — but price is moving in the opposite direction. That's the definition of a divergence.
Today's timeline tells the full story:
- Pre-PCE: BTC near $61K, market waiting
- PCE 4.1% hits: BTC drops to $58,115 in minutes
- Whale capitulation (7-year dormant ETH holder sells): market absorbs
- Recovery begins: BTC climbs back through $59K, then $59.7K
- $ADA flat at 0.00%, $AAVE +6.88% for a third day
The bounce from $58,115 mirrors the bounce from $59,102 yesterday. Both times, the selling was met with aggressive buying below $59K. That pattern — two failed attempts to break and hold below $59K — creates a short-term support level.
CoinRadar's system notes that consecutive intraday bounces from the same price zone with increasing volume is a structural support signal. The 1H Trend Score, which had flipped negative during the PCE drop, is already recovering toward neutral.
$60K is the next test. If BTC closes the daily candle above $59,700, the PCE selloff will have been fully absorbed within a single session.
Same pattern as yesterday: get scared, sell low, watch it bounce.
#Bitcoin #BTC #PCE #CryptoMarket
$BTC is climbing back toward $60,000.
From the PCE panic low of $58,115, BTC has recovered $1,658 to $59,773. The 24h loss is now only -1.22%.
The Fear & Greed index is at 15 — but price is moving in the opposite direction. That's the definition of a divergence.
Today's timeline tells the full story:
- Pre-PCE: BTC near $61K, market waiting
- PCE 4.1% hits: BTC drops to $58,115 in minutes
- Whale capitulation (7-year dormant ETH holder sells): market absorbs
- Recovery begins: BTC climbs back through $59K, then $59.7K
- $ADA flat at 0.00%, $AAVE +6.88% for a third day
The bounce from $58,115 mirrors the bounce from $59,102 yesterday. Both times, the selling was met with aggressive buying below $59K. That pattern — two failed attempts to break and hold below $59K — creates a short-term support level.
CoinRadar's system notes that consecutive intraday bounces from the same price zone with increasing volume is a structural support signal. The 1H Trend Score, which had flipped negative during the PCE drop, is already recovering toward neutral.
$60K is the next test. If BTC closes the daily candle above $59,700, the PCE selloff will have been fully absorbed within a single session.
Same pattern as yesterday: get scared, sell low, watch it bounce.
#Bitcoin #BTC #PCE #CryptoMarket
59K Is the New 60K. Here Is Why That Matters.
Bitcoin tested 59K multiple times. Every single time it bounced back.
June 5. Bounced. June 24. Bounced again. Today. Same story.
Here is the problem. Each bounce is getting weaker. The rebounds are smaller. The volume is drying up. This is what a dying support level looks like. It holds until it does not.
The PCE data is everything. Hot print. 59K breaks. 50K next. Cool print. Relief rally to 65K.
Everything hinges on this one number. I am watching closely.
What is your bet. Bounce or breakdown.
#bitcoin $BTC #BTC #supportlevel #PCE #CryptoMarket
Bitcoin tested 59K multiple times. Every single time it bounced back.
June 5. Bounced. June 24. Bounced again. Today. Same story.
Here is the problem. Each bounce is getting weaker. The rebounds are smaller. The volume is drying up. This is what a dying support level looks like. It holds until it does not.
The PCE data is everything. Hot print. 59K breaks. 50K next. Cool print. Relief rally to 65K.
Everything hinges on this one number. I am watching closely.
What is your bet. Bounce or breakdown.
#bitcoin $BTC #BTC #supportlevel #PCE #CryptoMarket
U.S. inflation rose higher than expected in May, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index reaching 4.1% year-over-year. This is the first time inflation has crossed 4% in about three years, showing that price pressures are increasing again in the economy.
A major reason behind the rise is higher energy costs linked to tensions in the Middle East. The US-Iran conflict pushed oil and gasoline prices up, making everyday expenses more expensive for consumers, even though prices have slightly eased after a temporary ceasefire.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also increased to 3.4%, showing that inflation is not just driven by energy but is spreading across the economy. This keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve, which aims to keep inflation around 2%.
The Fed recently kept interest rates unchanged, but its projections suggest rate hikes could happen later this year. Financial markets are already expecting a possible increase as early as September if inflation continues to stay high.
Despite rising prices, consumer spending remains strong, increasing by 0.7% in May. People are still spending due to tax refunds, stock market gains, and savings, helping support economic growth in the short term.
While the economy is still growing, inflation is rising faster than wages, which could reduce spending in the future. If this trend continues, the Fed may raise rates, which could slow down both the economy and financial markets.
Another risk is that if borrowing costs rise while household savings continue to decline, consumers may sharply cut back on spending in the coming months. That shift could slow overall economic growth and increase the chances of a broader downturn, especially if inflation remains stubbornly high at the same time.#PCE #USPCEInflationHits4.1% #Inflation
A major reason behind the rise is higher energy costs linked to tensions in the Middle East. The US-Iran conflict pushed oil and gasoline prices up, making everyday expenses more expensive for consumers, even though prices have slightly eased after a temporary ceasefire.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also increased to 3.4%, showing that inflation is not just driven by energy but is spreading across the economy. This keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve, which aims to keep inflation around 2%.
The Fed recently kept interest rates unchanged, but its projections suggest rate hikes could happen later this year. Financial markets are already expecting a possible increase as early as September if inflation continues to stay high.
Despite rising prices, consumer spending remains strong, increasing by 0.7% in May. People are still spending due to tax refunds, stock market gains, and savings, helping support economic growth in the short term.
While the economy is still growing, inflation is rising faster than wages, which could reduce spending in the future. If this trend continues, the Fed may raise rates, which could slow down both the economy and financial markets.
Another risk is that if borrowing costs rise while household savings continue to decline, consumers may sharply cut back on spending in the coming months. That shift could slow overall economic growth and increase the chances of a broader downturn, especially if inflation remains stubbornly high at the same time.#PCE #USPCEInflationHits4.1% #Inflation
🚨 BREAKING: Key U.S. Inflation Data Just Dropped Markets Got Exactly What They Expected!
The latest Core PCE inflation data has been released, and the numbers came in exactly as forecast.
📊 Core PCE: 0.3%
✅ Market Expectation: 0.3%
No surprises. No shockwaves.
Core PCE remains one of the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation indicators, making this release a critical signal for risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
With inflation meeting expectations, traders will now be watching closely for the market's next move and any clues regarding future Fed policy decisions.
⚡ Crypto markets often react sharply to major macroeconomic data. Will this neutral reading provide stability, or is volatility still around the corner?
$SYN $JUP $PUMP
#USNews #BREAKING #PCE #TaikoSaysL2IncidentNoUserFundLoss #Inflation
The latest Core PCE inflation data has been released, and the numbers came in exactly as forecast.
📊 Core PCE: 0.3%
✅ Market Expectation: 0.3%
No surprises. No shockwaves.
Core PCE remains one of the Federal Reserve's most closely watched inflation indicators, making this release a critical signal for risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
With inflation meeting expectations, traders will now be watching closely for the market's next move and any clues regarding future Fed policy decisions.
⚡ Crypto markets often react sharply to major macroeconomic data. Will this neutral reading provide stability, or is volatility still around the corner?
$SYN $JUP $PUMP
#USNews #BREAKING #PCE #TaikoSaysL2IncidentNoUserFundLoss #Inflation
Binance BiBi:
I see! The post says the latest U.S. Core PCE inflation data came in exactly as expected (0.3% vs. 0.3% forecast), meaning there were no major surprises for markets. It notes Core PCE is a key inflation gauge the Fed watches, so traders are now focused on what this implies for future Fed policy and how risk assets like Bitcoin and the broader crypto market might react, potentially with either stability or renewed volatility.
🚨 U.S. PCE DATA OUT 🇺🇸📊
📊 PCE YoY: 4.1% (Expected 4.1%)
📊 Core PCE YoY: 3.4% (Expected 3.4%)
⚖️ Inflation came exactly as forecast.
👀 Market impact:
➡️ No surprise = limited volatility
➡️ Fed policy still uncertain
➡️ Markets stay in wait-and-see mode
#PCE #Inflation #Markets 📉
📊 PCE YoY: 4.1% (Expected 4.1%)
📊 Core PCE YoY: 3.4% (Expected 3.4%)
⚖️ Inflation came exactly as forecast.
👀 Market impact:
➡️ No surprise = limited volatility
➡️ Fed policy still uncertain
➡️ Markets stay in wait-and-see mode
#PCE #Inflation #Markets 📉
$BTC FACES A MAKEOVER AFTER THIS PCE PRINT – 65.8% ODDS OF FED STAYING PAT IN JULY 🔥
The market is pricing a 65.8% chance the Fed holds rates steady in July, but the pressure for a hike is still very real. If tomorrow’s PCE comes in hot, the probability of a 25bp increase could spike instantly – and interest-rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin will feel it fast.
That means this is a binary event for $BTC . Either we get relief on a soft print, or volatility expands hard on a hawkish surprise. The setup is clean, but the decision is yours – are you holding through this data or waiting for confirmation?
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#BTC #Fed #PCE #Crypto
🔥
The market is pricing a 65.8% chance the Fed holds rates steady in July, but the pressure for a hike is still very real. If tomorrow’s PCE comes in hot, the probability of a 25bp increase could spike instantly – and interest-rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin will feel it fast.
That means this is a binary event for $BTC . Either we get relief on a soft print, or volatility expands hard on a hawkish surprise. The setup is clean, but the decision is yours – are you holding through this data or waiting for confirmation?
Not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
#BTC #Fed #PCE #Crypto
🔥
Core PCE and GDP data are dropping today. $BTC will react to these numbers for sure.
For GDP:
If the data comes in right as forecasted, we should see some sideways movement.
If it prints hotter than expected, that could spark an upside move.
Otherwise, downside continuation looks likely.
Note that PCE & GDP are inversely correlated. For PCE, lower is better.
#PCE
For GDP:
If the data comes in right as forecasted, we should see some sideways movement.
If it prints hotter than expected, that could spark an upside move.
Otherwise, downside continuation looks likely.
Note that PCE & GDP are inversely correlated. For PCE, lower is better.
#PCE
Verified
#PCE #BTC
📊 $BTC drew a new “line in the sand”: we are waiting for the stress test at 15:30
The round figure of $60k has temporarily lost its relevance. The new key support level for Bitcoin has become the $59,000 mark. This month the price has already bounced off this zone twice (in early June and just yesterday), which confirms the strength of buyers.
However, today this level will undergo a serious test of strength.
📌 At 15:30 Kyiv time, Core PCE data (the US Fed’s favorite inflation indicator) will be released. Forecasts are disappointing — growth to 3.3%–3.4% is expected (the highest since October 2023).
Two scenarios for the development of events:
🔴 Hot data (inflation is higher than forecast): The market will begin to lay the foundation for a possible increase in Fed rates. The dollar index (DXY) will continue the rally, and stocks and crypto will go into a dive. If $59,000 fails, the path to a deeper correction will open.
🟢 Cool data (inflation below forecast): Tensions are fading, the dollar is pausing growth, and bulls are getting the green light for a powerful rebound from the protected level of $59k.
Today, traders are focused exclusively on $59,000 and the release at 15:30. Get ready for volatility! 📉📈
📊 $BTC drew a new “line in the sand”: we are waiting for the stress test at 15:30
The round figure of $60k has temporarily lost its relevance. The new key support level for Bitcoin has become the $59,000 mark. This month the price has already bounced off this zone twice (in early June and just yesterday), which confirms the strength of buyers.
However, today this level will undergo a serious test of strength.
📌 At 15:30 Kyiv time, Core PCE data (the US Fed’s favorite inflation indicator) will be released. Forecasts are disappointing — growth to 3.3%–3.4% is expected (the highest since October 2023).
Two scenarios for the development of events:
🔴 Hot data (inflation is higher than forecast): The market will begin to lay the foundation for a possible increase in Fed rates. The dollar index (DXY) will continue the rally, and stocks and crypto will go into a dive. If $59,000 fails, the path to a deeper correction will open.
🟢 Cool data (inflation below forecast): Tensions are fading, the dollar is pausing growth, and bulls are getting the green light for a powerful rebound from the protected level of $59k.
Today, traders are focused exclusively on $59,000 and the release at 15:30. Get ready for volatility! 📉📈
🚨 Bitcoin's Most important Level Right Now? $59,000
#Bitcoin briefly dropped to the $59K zone before buyers stepped in and pushed the price back above $60K. Interestingly, this is the second time this month that $59,000 has acted as a strong support level.
The market is now focused on Thursday's Core PCE inflation data......one of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauges.
📈 A cooler-than-expected reading could ease pressure on risk assets and help Bitcoin attempt another move higher.
📉 A hotter reading, however, could increase rate-hike fears and put the $59K support under serious pressure.
The last time Bitcoin bounced from this area, it rallied all the way to $67K. The question now is whether history will repeat itself.
👀 All eyes on inflation data and the $59,000 line in the sand.
#BTC #Crypto #Inflation #PCE $BTC
#Bitcoin briefly dropped to the $59K zone before buyers stepped in and pushed the price back above $60K. Interestingly, this is the second time this month that $59,000 has acted as a strong support level.
The market is now focused on Thursday's Core PCE inflation data......one of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauges.
📈 A cooler-than-expected reading could ease pressure on risk assets and help Bitcoin attempt another move higher.
📉 A hotter reading, however, could increase rate-hike fears and put the $59K support under serious pressure.
The last time Bitcoin bounced from this area, it rallied all the way to $67K. The question now is whether history will repeat itself.
👀 All eyes on inflation data and the $59,000 line in the sand.
#BTC #Crypto #Inflation #PCE $BTC
🚀 Bitcoin traders are bracing for major macro volatility as PCE and jobs data hit this week. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge will determine whether risk assets rally or sell off.
📊 Key takeaways:
• PCE index = Fed's inflation compass
• Strong data → hawkish Fed → BTC pressure
• Weak data → rate cut hopes → BTC rally
The dollar index (DXY) is surging, pushing BTC toward $59K support. Options volatility is spiking — expect sharp moves in both directions.
On-chain: SHIB burned 50B tokens in 24h as bulls take control of netflows. HYPE corrected 22% from ATH — spot demand will determine if the uptrend holds.
宏观市场正在重新定价，crypto处于十字路口。关注PCE数据，它将决定下一步方向。
#Bitcoin #Crypto #PCE #Macro #Trading
📊 Key takeaways:
• PCE index = Fed's inflation compass
• Strong data → hawkish Fed → BTC pressure
• Weak data → rate cut hopes → BTC rally
The dollar index (DXY) is surging, pushing BTC toward $59K support. Options volatility is spiking — expect sharp moves in both directions.
On-chain: SHIB burned 50B tokens in 24h as bulls take control of netflows. HYPE corrected 22% from ATH — spot demand will determine if the uptrend holds.
宏观市场正在重新定价，crypto处于十字路口。关注PCE数据，它将决定下一步方向。
#Bitcoin #Crypto #PCE #Macro #Trading
🎯 Mentor note: Thursday 8:30AM is a triple data dump — PCE + Jobless Claims + GDP all at once. The PCE is the one that matters most right now. This is Warsh's first real post-FOMC inflation data point — any sign inflation is cooling after Hormuz reopened and he will be under pressure to signal a cut at the next meeting. Any surprise higher and $BTC gets hit again. Have your plan ready before Thursday morning. 💪
#GDP #PCE #Inflation #DYOR*
#GDP #PCE #Inflation #DYOR*
🔴 HIGH IMPACT — Thursday June 25
PCE Price Index (May) 🔥 biggest of week
📅 8:30 AM ET · Forecast: ~3.6% YoY · Prev: 3.8%
Inflation readings have come in higher than expected recently as the extended conflict in the Middle East kept energy prices elevated. While the recently signed peace plan has oil prices back down, the impact on inflation is likely to continue for the time being. This is the first PCE after Hormuz reopened — the market will look for any early sign of cooling. Even a small drop from 3.8% would be bullish for $BTC . 🌡️
#PCE #Inflation #Fed #DYOR*
PCE Price Index (May) 🔥 biggest of week
📅 8:30 AM ET · Forecast: ~3.6% YoY · Prev: 3.8%
Inflation readings have come in higher than expected recently as the extended conflict in the Middle East kept energy prices elevated. While the recently signed peace plan has oil prices back down, the impact on inflation is likely to continue for the time being. This is the first PCE after Hormuz reopened — the market will look for any early sign of cooling. Even a small drop from 3.8% would be bullish for $BTC . 🌡️
#PCE #Inflation #Fed #DYOR*
Tonight at 8:30 PM PCE, with core PCE expected at 3.4%. Fed’s Williams has made it clear—"inflation is undeniably high," pushing the 2% target out to 2028. Against this backdrop, the trading framework is simple:
Three scenarios:
· Core PCE ≤ 3.4%: it’s already sold off hard; downside may be exhausted, possibly leading to a rebound
· 3.4%-3.5%: within expectations, likely choppy and weak
· > 3.5%: another wave lower; BTC could test 55,000-58,000
But more important than the forecast data is—where you are before the data. This afternoon, BTC was around 60,000: four consecutive red daily candles, and the fear index at 13. At this position, there’s a hard rule for data trading: don’t bet on direction.
My three pre-PCE discipline rules:
1. Cut position size to 30% of normal. In a two-way data move, going full size is basically betting on odds
2. Wait 5 minutes after the data before acting. The price in the first minute is often liquidity plunder—don’t treat it as fuel
3. If you trade, trade with the trend direction; don’t bottom-pick. After a big drop, the first green candle is not a reversal signal—it’s shorts covering
Let’s review the trading notes from this morning—an ultra-fear + rapid rebound structure already showed up once in the early session. If tonight’s PCE comes in line with or better than expectations, that structure may repeat. But if it misses to the upside, then it won’t be a structure—it’ll be a trend.
My principle: before PCE, I only observe, never guess. The data decides—I follow.
#交易笔记 #PCE #交易纪律
Three scenarios:
· Core PCE ≤ 3.4%: it’s already sold off hard; downside may be exhausted, possibly leading to a rebound
· 3.4%-3.5%: within expectations, likely choppy and weak
· > 3.5%: another wave lower; BTC could test 55,000-58,000
But more important than the forecast data is—where you are before the data. This afternoon, BTC was around 60,000: four consecutive red daily candles, and the fear index at 13. At this position, there’s a hard rule for data trading: don’t bet on direction.
My three pre-PCE discipline rules:
1. Cut position size to 30% of normal. In a two-way data move, going full size is basically betting on odds
2. Wait 5 minutes after the data before acting. The price in the first minute is often liquidity plunder—don’t treat it as fuel
3. If you trade, trade with the trend direction; don’t bottom-pick. After a big drop, the first green candle is not a reversal signal—it’s shorts covering
Let’s review the trading notes from this morning—an ultra-fear + rapid rebound structure already showed up once in the early session. If tonight’s PCE comes in line with or better than expectations, that structure may repeat. But if it misses to the upside, then it won’t be a structure—it’ll be a trend.
My principle: before PCE, I only observe, never guess. The data decides—I follow.
#交易笔记 #PCE #交易纪律
Verified
The market sentiment has definitely shifted. We were previously guessing about rate cuts in a few months, but now the expectations for rate hikes have quietly risen. Tonight's core PCE is the first real test.
Inflation stickiness is proving to be more stubborn than we thought, with expectations directly above the previous values. Plus, with the initial jobless claims and GDP final values coming out together, if the data exceeds expectations across the board, the narrative around rate hikes will accelerate, and market volatility will be more pronounced.
Everyone, make sure to manage your positions well and pay attention to risk control.
#PCE #通胀
Inflation stickiness is proving to be more stubborn than we thought, with expectations directly above the previous values. Plus, with the initial jobless claims and GDP final values coming out together, if the data exceeds expectations across the board, the narrative around rate hikes will accelerate, and market volatility will be more pronounced.
Everyone, make sure to manage your positions well and pay attention to risk control.
#PCE #通胀
One of the most important economic news items today is the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, along with data on U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and initial jobless claims, at 3:30. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve balance sheet will be announced at 11:30.
#PCE #GDPSteadyPCE2.1Down
#PCE #GDPSteadyPCE2.1Down
Log in to explore more content