The shine around crypto treasury firms may be facing its first real stress test. According to NYDIGâs head of research Greg Cipolaro, the premium between share prices and net asset value (NAV) for major Bitcoin-holding companies like Strategy and Metaplanet is narrowing fastâeven as Bitcoin itself hovers near record levels.
This compression signals investor unease over supply unlocks, share issuance, and profit-taking. For traders, itâs a warning: volatility could spike as treasury firms navigate financing rounds and potential shareholder exits.
Why Premium Compression Matters
Treasury firms exploded in popularity on Wall Street in 2024â25, scooping up hundreds of thousands of
$BTC to mimic the MicroStrategy playbook. Investors traditionally paid a premium for access to Bitcoin exposure via equities, but that premium is now fading:
Premium erosion = less confidence in treasury strategies.
Share issuance & unlocks = looming selling pressure.
Profit-taking = rotation out of overheated valuations.
Without intervention, Cipolaro warns, firms risk a âsubstantial wave of sellingâ once locked-up shares hit the market.
The Strategic Play: Buybacks
The most straightforward path to restore confidence? Aggressive share buyback programs.
By reducing supply, treasury firms can support share prices, rebuild investor trust, and re-establish a premium above NAV. Cipolaroâs advice is blunt: set aside capital now to defend shareholder value later.
The Bitcoin Balance Sheet
Treasury firms collectively hold ~840,000 BTC.
Strategy alone controls 637,000 BTC (76% share).
Monthly purchases have slowed sharply:
Strategyâs buys dropped from 14,000 BTC â 1,200
$BTC Other firms are buying 86% less BTC vs earlier in 2025.
Growth rates are cooling: Strategyâs monthly expansion fell from 44% (Dec 2024) â 5% (Aug 2025).
Bitcoin itself trades around $111,200, down ~10% from its $124K mid-August peak.
Investment Outlook
Near-term turbulence: Premium compression + share unlocks could trigger sharp drawdowns in treasury equities.
Medium-term catalyst: Buybacks or consolidation moves may spark sharp rebounds.
BTC itself remains king: While treasury firms stall, Bitcoinâs structural trendline keeps risingâstill up dramatically YoY.
For investors, the message is clear:
Speculative traders may front-run dips in treasury equities.
Long-term allocators may prefer direct
$BTC exposure to avoid NAV risks.
Contrarian play: If firms announce buybacks, compressed valuations could present high-upside entry points.
Assertive Takeaway
Treasury firms are facing their first big stress cycle. Some will falter under dilution and selling pressure. Others, if bold enough to deploy buybacks and smarter treasury strategies, could emerge stronger.
Either way, the bumpy ride = opportunity for investors who can separate short-term noise from long-term Bitcoin strength.
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