macrofinance

THE 4-YEAR CYCLE OF #bitcoin HAS BROKEN AFTER THE 2024 HALVING?

The year 2025 closes with a very different fact from Bitcoin's history: the annual profit is down about -6%, even though BTC previously peaked around 126,000 USD in October.
For more than a decade, Bitcoin has often moved in a 4-year cycle associated with halving:
The year after halving is usually a strong boom year.
Profits often reach hundreds to thousands of percent.
👉 2025 is the first time this rule is no longer true.
Prices have not maintained the upward momentum; the cycle of "the year after halving = major bull run" has been broken.
Why is this happening?
The market size is larger, making it difficult to multiply several times like in the early stages.
Institutional money, ETFs, and monetary policy make BTC increasingly tied to macroeconomic factors.
Volatility is "compressed" by conditional liquidity, no longer increasing according to a simple model.
📌 Important point:
This is not necessarily a bad signal, but a sign of a more mature market. Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative cyclical asset to a macro-financial asset, where profit expectations must be more realistic and holding periods longer.
The 4-year cycle may not be "dead," but it is no longer an absolute guiding principle. Those who still use the old model to predict the future are likely to be "re-taught" by the market.
#CryptoMarket
#MacroFinance

GOLD MARKET: BANKS QUIETLY WITHDRAW - SYSTEMIC RISK SIGNALS ARE BUILDING

China's largest bank has just announced it will cease providing precious metals trading agency services for individual investors on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

Simply put: the bank does not want to continue acting as an intermediary, does not want to maintain margin accounts, and does not want to bear the risk of sharp price fluctuations. They choose to withdraw.

The important point is not whether to "close or not", but when.

When the market is calm, banks are willing to open the door for leveraged trading. But when volatility rises, they are always the first to leave the table. Not because they predict prices, but because they see systemic risk building up.

🚨 It is important to understand correctly:
What is being cut is paper trading (margin, intermediaries, leverage).
The demand for physical gold and silver is not disappearing.
Financial history shows a familiar rule:
Banks always protect their balance sheets first, while retail investors often realize the story last.
And this is not 2011.
This is 2025, when the financial system is much tighter.
If capital gradually withdraws from "paper" metals and seeks refuge elsewhere, crypto - especially Bitcoin - will be the natural destination. At that point, the matter of $BTC surpassing its peak will only be a matter of time.
#CryptoMarket
#MacroFinance

BREAKING UPDATE FOR U.S. CITIZENS 🇺🇸💸
👀 Keep a close eye on these tokens:
$WCT | $ZRX | $TRADOOR
The U.S. Treasury Secretary has announced that Americans may receive massive tax refunds next year.
Due to retroactive tax cuts introduced under Trump, millions of households could see an extra $1,000–$2,000 added to their refunds.
📌 Why this is important:
A sudden wave of extra cash at a national scale can:
• Increase consumer spending
• Strengthen retail and business activity
• Push momentum into stocks and high-risk assets
• Quietly funnel liquidity into crypto markets
When millions gain unexpected liquidity, markets usually react — even before the news fully spreads.
This is more than just a tax refund.
It’s a liquidity surge that could send shockwaves across the economy.
💡 Stay sharp — liquidity always moves first.
#USMarkets #TaxRefunds #CryptoTrends" #LiquidityFlow #MacroFinance

[SPECIAL COVERAGE] Gold Hits Record $4,450 ATH as Capital Flows Diverge from Bitcoin
Tuesday, December 23, 2025 | 11:00 PM EST | New York City
Gold has officially shattered resistance, hitting a historic All-Time High of $4,450 per ounce as global fiscal uncertainty persists 🏆.

This monumental surge reflects a massive flight to safety by central banks and institutional giants seeking stability amidst currency debasement 🌍.

However, a significant divergence is emerging as capital begins to choose between physical and digital scarcity 📈.

Institutional liquidity is currently divided between the millennia-old track record of Gold and the volatile growth potential of Bitcoin 🏛️.

While Gold has outperformed almost every major asset class in 2025 with a 65% gain, Bitcoin remains in a complex consolidation phase ₿.
$TRX

This performance gap is sparking a heated debate over which asset truly serves as the ultimate "safe haven" during geopolitical stress 🚀.
$BNB

On-chain intelligence reveals that while younger demographics still favor "Digital Gold," traditional hedge funds are rotating back into precious metals 💎.
$SOL

This rotation is driven by Gold's proven resilience during the recent 2025 "debasement trade" where crypto volatility spooked conservative treasuries 📊.

The narrative of Bitcoin as a direct gold replacement is facing its toughest test as market correlation weakens significantly 🛡️.

Despite the divergence, some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap remains its primary long-term advantage over expanding gold mine production 📈.

As the global financial system adapts to a "higher for longer" interest rate regime, the battle for dominance between these two assets continues 🌐.

This evolving dynamic highlights a fundamental shift in how modern investors approach wealth preservation and risk ⚖️.

#GoldATH #Bitcoin #StoreOfValue #MacroFinance

NEW YEAR DON'T ASK THE CRYPTO HOLDERS ABOUT PROFITS OR LOSSES 😅
The investment performance comparison table since the beginning of the year shows an interesting paradox:
📈 Silver, gold, investment funds, and even the VN-Index all recorded strong increases.
📉 Meanwhile, Bitcoin is in the red, becoming the asset with the worst performance in the group.
This reflects the context of 2025:
– Cash flow prioritizes defensive assets against macroeconomic instability
– Crypto is under pressure from liquidity, derivatives, and short-term sentiment
– The cycle does not disappear, but coming early or late are two different stories
The financial market is not fair over the short term.
Those holding assets "at the right cycle" ride the wave completely,
those holding assets "ahead of the cycle" must... be patient.
👉 Therefore, this New Year, when you meet anyone holding crypto, don't ask about profits or losses.
They are not losing – they are just waiting for the right moment.
#CryptoMarket
#MacroFinance

FED INJECTS LARGE LIQUIDITY ONCE AGAIN AFTER COVID – WHAT SIGNALS FOR THE MARKET?
On December 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York injected 16 billion USD into the banking system through overnight repos. This is the second-largest amount since COVID, exceeding the 13.5 billion USD injection in early December.
Essentially, the Fed is lending short-term cash to banks, taking U.S. Treasury bonds as collateral, to address year-end liquidity stress.
The main reasons stem from:
Closing books on December 31: banks need cash to meet capital safety standards.
The consequence of prolonged quantitative easing: the surplus liquidity in the system has been depleted.
The Fed's continuous intervention in December indicates that the system is genuinely thirsty for capital, forcing the Fed to revert to its role as the “lender of last resort.” This implies that the era of liquidity tightening has reached its limit, and money may flow back in a mandatory manner, no longer being a choice.
In the coming days, the scale of repos may increase before cooling down in early January 2026.
For the risky asset market, liquidity is a necessary condition – the remaining task is to wait for the cash flow to start flowing.
#FedLiquidity #MacroFinance

Silver Becomes the Third-Largest Asset — What Changed?

Silver’s recent rise has propelled it into uncommon ground. As prices climbed fast, the estimated worth of above-ground silver briefly rose enough to put it among the world’s top three assets by total market value. This wasn't a slow climb it was a rapid repricing.
The move shows more than just speculative energy. Silver sits where monetary hedges meet industrial needs. On one hand, ongoing worries about budget shortfalls, increasing debt costs, and future interest rate cuts have renewed interest in hard assets. On the other, silver's use in solar panels, electronics, and energy transition technologies has tightened long-term supply stories.

Unlike stocks, silver doesn't depend on growing profits. Its value returns when trust in financial statements fades or when real yields fall. That dual nature a way to store value and an industrial metal makes silver especially responsive to big economic changes. When both factors line up, prices can move dramatically.

It's also worth noting that global asset rankings change. As stock prices and commodity markets shift daily, positions can change fast. But even a brief move into the top tier suggests something more significant: money is moving towards real scarcity.
Silver’s moment near the top of the global asset list is less about news stories and more about what markets are quietly reconsidering.

#Silver #PreciousMetals #MacroFinance

🇨🇳 China Redefines the Global Financial Order.

As markets focus on $BTC volatility and meme coin trends, Beijing has quietly executed a move with far greater implications for global finance🌍

For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the backbone of international trade — underpinning oil, gold, and major commodity settlements. 💵
Now, China is accelerating a shift toward the yuan (CNY) as a settlement currency, partnering with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and several African economies. 🇨🇳

Beyond rhetoric, China is deploying the digital yuan (e-CNY) and CIPS — its alternative to SWIFT — establishing a parallel global payments infrastructure. 🏦

📊 Strategic Implications:

🌏 Global trade is gradually diversifying away from the U.S. dollar

💼 The effectiveness of U.S. sanctions is diminishing

🐉 China is strengthening its influence over global liquidity and capital flows


This marks not a temporary adjustment, but the early stages of a systemic monetary realignment — signaling that the financial center of gravity may be shifting East. 🔄

#China #DeDollarization #GlobalMarkets #BRICS #MacroFinance $BTC

💥 BREAKING: GOLD GEOPOLITICS SHIFT 🌏🟡
In November, China bought $961M of gold from Russia, setting a record for the largest bilateral gold deal in history 🏆💰.
2025 (Jan–Nov) Highlights:
Total Russian gold imports: $1.9B 📊
~9× YoY increase 🔥
China accelerating de-dollarization 💱
Russia securing sanctions-resistant buyers 🛡️
Central banks stacking hard assets aggressively 🏦
This isn’t just commerce — it’s a strategic realignment in global finance 🌐⚡.
📈 Implication: Long-term bullish for gold and commodities markets 🟡💎
#Gold #ChinaRussia #DeDollarization #Commodities #MacroFinance
$XAU

Silver didn’t gain 67% this year.
It climbed over 100% — a miss of nearly 40% by mainstream financial media.
And honestly, that’s the least interesting part.

Digging deeper revealed something far more important:

🔹 Silver lease rates surged to 39% in October, a level last seen in 1980. Physical silver is now being flown between New York and London, highlighting a widening gap between paper contracts and real metal — something not witnessed in decades.

🔹 Copper markets are no longer unified. The price gap between COMEX and LME exploded to 26% in mid-year, compared to a long-term norm below 1%. The world no longer trades on a single copper price — the US has one, and the rest of the world has another.

🔹 China quietly rewrote the rules on rare earths. Any product containing more than 0.1% Chinese rare earth material now requires Beijing’s approval for global sale. This effectively places much of the world’s advanced manufacturing under policy control.

🔹 In August, the US Pentagon announced a $500M cobalt purchase. Two months later, it was scrapped — markets had already moved beyond government response speed.

🔹 According to the IEA, processing power for critical minerals became more concentrated, not less, between 2020 and 2024. The top three countries now control 86%, up from 82%. Billions spent on diversification achieved the opposite result.

🔹 Central banks accumulated nearly 700 tonnes of gold in just nine months. This marks the fourth year in a row of heavy buying — not for trading, but for long-term strategic positioning.

The takeaway is clear:

The systems that defined commodity markets for the last 40 years are fracturing at once.
Location matters more than resource size. Regulation outweighs price signals. Physical supply is overtaking financial abstraction.

This isn’t a prediction.
It’s already unfolding.

#BTC #BitcoinVsGold #commodities #MacroFinance

#TrumpTariffs

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📢 **#TrumpTariffs: Trade Tensions & Crypto Implications**

Trump’s tariffs made headlines in 2018—and the ripple effects are still felt.

🛑 Tariffs on Chinese goods.
🔩 Levies on steel & aluminum.
🚜 Retaliation from global partners.

The result?
💥 Market volatility
📦 Supply chain disruption
📈 Inflationary pressure

For many, this uncertainty raised one big question:
**What’s a reliable store of value when fiat falters?**

💡 *Enter crypto.*
As traditional markets wobbled, BTC and decentralized assets started gaining ground as **alternatives to fiat-bound economies.**

Now, with tariff talks resurfacing in 2025, will history repeat—and boost the case for digital assets once again?

\#BinanceSquare #TrumpTariffs #TradeWar #CryptoNews #BTC #MacroFinance

💵 U.S. Money Supply (M2) Hits All-Time High 🚨

While inflation headlines have faded, something huge is quietly happening behind the scenes…

📈 The M2 money supply — which includes cash, checking, and savings deposits — is now at its highest level ever.

After a brief dip post-COVID, the printers are humming again. The Fed may not be calling it QE, but the data doesn’t lie.

Why does this matter?

🧨 More dollars = less value per dollar
🛑 Your savings are quietly being devalued
🪙 Hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate become even more attractive as hedges

This is why institutions are turning to crypto.
This is why Bitcoin was created in the first place.

👀 Watch what they print. Follow what they fear.

$BTC
#M2 #MoneySupply #Bitcoin #CryptoHedge #Inflation #USD #SoundMoney #MacroFinance #BTC #Web3

First Corporate Bitcoin Treasury Sells BTC A Signal in the New Wave of Institutional Adoption

In a noteworthy development, one of nearly 200 newly formed Bitcoin treasury companies has officially sold a portion of its BTC holdings, marking the first recorded liquidation in this new era of corporate Bitcoin adoption.

While the sale represents only a small share of total holdings, it’s symbolically significant signaling that corporate treasuries are beginning to actively manage their Bitcoin positions rather than simply holding passively.

This move highlights a shift toward more sophisticated treasury strategies, where companies balance exposure, manage volatility, and treat Bitcoin as an active reserve asset much like foreign currency or gold.

Context:

Nearly 200 companies have added BTC to their balance sheets in recent months.

Most continue to accumulate, but this marks the first partial liquidation from the new cohort.

The decision underscores Bitcoin’s growing maturity as a corporate financial instrument.

Even as some take profits or rebalance, the broader trend remains clear Bitcoin is now a strategic asset in the corporate world, not just a speculative bet.

#CorporateTreasury #InstitutionalAdoption #CryptoNews #DigitalAssetSecurity #MacroFinance

🚨 BULL RUN ALERT: Dominance Data Signals Green Light! 🟢
Despite recent market volatility and an 18% drop in total market cap, key dominance metrics suggest the Bull Run is far from over! 📈
BTC Dominance (BTC.D) is currently around 59.2% to 61.84%, a level technical analysts are watching closely.
The Contrarian Signal
Market analysts like Matthew Hyland and Collin Talks Crypto highlight that the BTC Dominance chart is showing a bearish trend with a negative RSI and a bear flag pattern.
Historic Signal: A drop in BTC.D below 49% has historically been the final signal of the $BITCOIN
cycle top. With dominance still significantly higher, experts believe there is substantial room for the price to rise before the final peak!
Altseason Prep: A sustained drop in BTC.D from these levels often signals the start of a massive $ALT
Season (as seen in 2017 and 2021), leading to rises across all cryptocurrencies.
Price & Macro Catalysts
Current Price: $101,805 - $102,398 (following a small daily drop)
Volume: Daily trade volume is strong, currently around $60B - $85B.
Macro Headwinds Turning: Experts point to the lack of euphoria or overheating at the recent high ($126,080) and major regulatory/monetary shifts on the horizon (like the potential end of US Fed's QT in December) as fuel for the next leg up.
Investors are advised to watch for a concession in $BTC
BTC.D as the next major opportunity for broad cryptocurrency gains! 👀
#AltseasonWatch #CryptoCycle #BTCdominance #MacroFinance #CryptoAnalytics

💥 UPDATE 🚨

Billionaire Ray Dalio just told CNBC that around 1% of his portfolio is now in Bitcoin! 🚀

When one of the biggest macro minds backs BTC, the signal is loud and clear. 👀

#Bitcoin #Dalio #CryptoInvesting #MacroFinance $BTC $ETH $BNB

$BTC Stands Firm as Investor Doubts December Fed Rate Cut 🚨

A prominent investor is casting doubt on a December Federal Reserve rate cut, calling it a “long shot.” Yet, despite the macroeconomic uncertainty, he remains confident in Bitcoin’s resilience. According to him, BTC is well-positioned to weather any policy moves, and he’s steering clear of making investment decisions based on rate-cut speculation.

As markets brace for potential turbulence, all eyes will be on Bitcoin to see if it can once again prove its “built different” reputation. The coming weeks could be pivotal for crypto investors.


#bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #MacroFinance

CME INCREASED PROBABILITY OF INTEREST RATE CUT: MARCH 2026 ON "THE RADAR"
After this morning's CPI report came in lower than expected, the CME FedWatch tool made a notable adjustment: the market is currently leaning towards the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates at the March 2026 meeting, which is the second meeting of the year 2026.
Specifically, the probability of an easing scenario has surpassed 50%, while the likelihood of maintaining rates has weakened significantly. This reflects an important message: investors believe that the trend of lowering inflation is strong enough for the Fed to begin the rate-cutting cycle, although not in a rush at the beginning of the year.
From a financial perspective, this is a medium-term supportive signal for risky assets. The expected decrease in interest rates helps lower capital costs, improve valuations, and strengthen cash flows into stocks, crypto, and growth assets. However, the market will still be sensitive to labor data and growth: if the economy slows down too quickly, the risk-on sentiment may be disrupted.
In summary, today’s CPI is not just "good news," but is also gradually shaping the 2026 policy roadmap. The market is starting to look further ahead – and price in accordingly.
#FedRateCut #MacroFinance