factcheck

I’ll admit, I’m a little late to the party with this review. I’ve spent the last few days sitting with my notes from the recent AMA, trying to digest everything that was shared. But honestly? The insights were so impactful that I felt I had to put them into words. For me, and I suspect for many other listeners, the speaker provided a much-needed reality check on how markets actually move and the hidden dangers of the "speed-first" culture in crypto
The Great Illusion: Social Influence vs. Macro Liquidity
One of the biggest "aha!" moments came when the speaker dismantled the idea that social media sentiment is the primary driver of market direction. In a world where we spend hours refreshing our feeds, it’s easy to think that a viral tweet or a trending hashtag is moving the needle
The reality is much colder: Macro liquidity is the ocean, and social media is just the spray on top
The Misinformation Trap: Speed vs. Accuracy
The conversation then shifted to a more dangerous trend: the weaponization of information. In crypto, we are obsessed with being "early." We want to catch the move before anyone else does. But that speed is exactly what bad actors exploit
We’re seeing a rise in viral tweets that are either completely fabricated, taken wildly out of context, or designed solely to farm engagement revenue. The speaker’s warning was clear: The market’s biggest risk right now isn’t volatility, it’s misinformation.
The AI Frontier: Seeing is No Longer Believing
Perhaps the most sobering part of the AMA was the discussion on AI. We are already seeing AI-generated videos that look incredibly convincing. As this technology improves, the line between a "real source" and a "deepfake" will practically disappear
If you aren't verifying your sources today, you are essentially gambling on a hallucination. The "motto" to live by moving forward? Verify, don't just trust
Final Thoughts: The New Playbook
If I had to boil down the learnings from this session, it would be this: Accuracy beats speed every single time
Winning in this market requires a disciplined approach to information. We need to stop chasing the noise of social media and start focusing on sound macro logic and rigorous fact-checking. Speed might get you into a trade faster, but only accuracy will keep your portfolio alive in the long run
What about you? Has a "fake news" headline ever caught you off guard, or are you already a master of fact-checking? Let’s keep the conversation going, the more we share our processes, the stronger we become as a community 📈🌊

Replay : https://www.binance.com/en/square/audio/replay?id=39933918288601
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Berezin spoke with David Lin on The David Lin Report, as equity markets posted a brief gain on reports of possible Iran ceasefire talks. He was skeptical the rally would hold.
I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that,” Berezin said, comparing equities to a bouncing ball descending a staircase. “It’ll bounce up for a while, but ultimately it’ll end up lower than where it started.”
The Nasdaq had already pulled back roughly 7.5% year to date at the time of the interview, with a trough decline of about 12% making it the worst start to a year since 2022. Berezin explained that stocks remain expensive, trading around 20 times forward earnings on peak profit margins. He called cash his preferred asset class for now.
On oil, Berezin pointed to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes, and noted that approximately 10% of world supply is currently being disrupted. Demand for oil is highly inelastic, he explained to Lin, meaning prices would likely need to double or triple to reduce consumption by 10%.
If we have a sustained decrease in global oil production of around 10%, then it’s very easy to see oil prices going to $200,” he said. Berezin added:
He noted that commodity traders have not followed equity investors into the recent rally, with oil prices remaining elevated above $100 a barrel. Berezin said that gap is a warning sign, given that commodity markets tend to be better informed about where energy prices are heading.
Recession probability for Europe and Japan sits closer to 50%, Berezin said, partly because higher oil prices hurt their terms of trade more than the United States. The dollar benefits in the short term from elevated crude, he added, but faces structural headwinds: a still-expensive valuation by purchasing power parity, decades of current account deficits, and central banks diversifying away from dollar reserves. He argued that gold stands to benefit from that diversification trend over the coming months and years, after a correction driven partly by retail profit-taking.
On the Iran conflict itself, Berezin said a negotiated resolution remains the base case but warned that a power vacuum following the killing of key Iranian leadership makes near-term compromise harder. He insisted that tougher political figures tend to rise in such environments, which works against a quick off-ramp.
The conversation shifted to artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on the broader tech sector. Berezin detailed that the disruption has moved well past software and now threatens social media companies. He argued that AI agents may increasingly deliver content directly to users, reducing the value of platforms like Instagram and Youtube from destinations to mere content repositories.
On AI hardware, Berezin pointed to a Wall Street Journal report on Caltech research showing sharply lower computational costs for large language models (LLMs). He drew a parallel to internet infrastructure: data transmission has grown at a cumulative pace of roughly 500,000% over 25 years, yet spending on that infrastructure has fallen as a share of GDP. He said AI could follow a similar path, rendering the projected trillions in data center spending unnecessary.
The irony could be that we end up with an AI-empowered world, but we don’t need like trillions of dollars in data centers to get there,” he said.
That scenario, Berezin remarked, would be bearish for copper and base metals in the short term but potentially bullish over the long term, since genuine AI-driven productivity gains would eventually create demand for physical resources that remain finite.
Asked about anticipated 2026 IPOs including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, Berezin said Anthropic was his pick if pressed, citing its positioning in business AI services and the advantage it would gain from lower compute costs. He also cautioned that a heavy IPO wave often signals a sector top.
He pushed back firmly on warnings from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10% to 20% within five years. Berezin stressed that economists know that productivity gains translate into income gains in equilibrium, and that any resulting inequality would likely trigger a fiscal and monetary policy response that prevents unemployment from rising sharply.
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Having explored foundational tools like oscillators, moving averages, and Fibonacci retracement, it’s time to delve into Elliott Wave Theory for analyzing bitcoin prices. This advanced technical analysis method focuses on identifying recurring price patterns, or “waves,” driven by market psychology. Understanding Elliott Wave offers a unique lens to anticipate bitcoin’s volatile cycles and potential trend reversals by mapping its distinct impulse and corrective wave structures.
Elliott Wave Theory, developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, is a technical analysis method based on the observation that crowd psychology drives financial markets in predictable, repetitive cycles. Forced into retirement by illness, Elliott meticulously studied decades of stock market data and concluded that prices move in distinct, fractal patterns reflecting swings between optimism and pessimism. He detailed his findings in “The Wave Principle” published in 1938.
The theory identifies two primary wave types. Impulse (or motive) waves consist of five sub-waves (labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) and move in the direction of the main trend. Within this structure, waves 1, 3, and 5 advance the trend, while waves 2 and 4 represent smaller pullbacks.
Corrective waves consist of three sub-waves (labeled A, B, C) and move against the main trend, acting as interruptions. A core tenet is the fractal nature of these patterns. This means the same basic wave structures – five waves up followed by three waves down in a bull market, or vice versa in a bear market – repeat across all timeframes, from minute charts to multi-decade charts.
Analysts also frequently observe relationships between wave lengths adhering to Fibonacci ratios (like 38%, 50%, or 62% retracements). Bitcoin’s well-documented volatility and cyclical price movements make it a frequent subject for Elliott Wave analysis. Traders apply the theory to identify potential trend direction, continuation points, and reversals within the cryptocurrency’s price charts.
Applying Elliott Wave Theory to bitcoin (BTC) trading follows a structured process. First, traders identify the primary trend – whether bitcoin is in a bullish (uptrend) or bearish (downtrend) phase. This sets the context for labeling the waves.
Next comes the crucial step of labeling the waves according to their position and characteristics. In an uptrend, traders look for a developing five-wave impulse pattern upwards (1-2-3-4-5), expected to be followed by a three-wave corrective pattern downwards (A-B-C). The reverse applies in a downtrend.
Bitcoin traders use this wave identification to spot potential entry and exit points. Common strategies include looking for entry opportunities during the pullbacks of Wave 2 or Wave 4 within an uptrend impulse pattern, aiming to capitalize on the anticipated strong moves of Wave 3 or Wave 5. Traders often consider exiting long positions as Wave 5 matures or when the corrective A-B-C pattern begins. Conversely, corrective waves (A-B-C) signal caution for trend-following positions.
Analysis typically involves examining multiple timeframes. A five-wave impulse pattern visible on a weekly bitcoin chart might contain smaller, complete five-wave patterns within it on daily or hourly charts. This multi-scale analysis helps traders align their strategies with different time horizons.
Key rules help maintain consistency in wave counting: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1; Wave 3 cannot be the shortest among waves 1, 3, and 5; and Wave 4 must not overlap with the price territory of Wave 1. Violation of these core rules invalidates the wave count.
However, applying Elliott Wave Theory effectively requires significant practice. The interpretation can be subjective, leading different analysts to see different wave counts on the same bitcoin chart. Its probabilistic nature, rather than deterministic, means it suggests possibilities, not certainties.
Therefore, Bitcoin traders are generally advised to use Elliott Wave analysis in conjunction with other technical indicators – such as moving averages, oscillators like the relative strength index ( RSI), or volume analysis – for confirmation of signals and improved decision-making. It provides a framework for understanding market structure and psychology, but its application demands skill and disciplined risk management, especially in the fast-moving crypto markets.
As mentioned earlier, one of the inherent problems with Elliott Wave Theory lies in its deeply subjective nature—pinpointing where one wave concludes and another begins is often a matter of interpretation rather than empirical precision. Given that financial markets don’t arrive conveniently labeled, traders are left to lean on pattern recognition, contextual inference, and individual discretion when counting waves—a process that frequently spawns contention, even among seasoned analysts, with some critics dismissing the entire theory as little more than financial fortune-telling.
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Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $79,000 late Sunday following reports that Iran had submitted a proposal to the U.S. aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Market data show the cryptocurrency rose from just under $78,000 to a session high of $79,490 within three hours. It stayed above $79,000 until the early hours of April 27, when it plummeted to $77,500, effectively wiping out the gains made hours earlier.
The retreat erased more than $30 billion from bitcoin’s value and dragged its market capitalization back to $1.55 trillion. The price volatility, which Coinglass data showed exceeded 2.63%, resulted in approximately $56.8 million in bitcoin short liquidations over 12 hours, compared to $38 million in longs.
As reported by several media outlets, Iran delivered its proposal via Pakistani mediators, suggesting an extended ceasefire and the reopening of the strait in exchange for a pause in the U.S. naval blockade. While the U.S. Military’s initial strikes and pressure campaign may not have achieved desired results, the naval blockade of Iranian ports has seemingly turned the tables by depriving the country of a vital revenue source.
By seeking an end to the blockade and an extension of the ceasefire, Iran signaled it may be ready to make a giant concession to end a war that has devastated the global economy. However, some observers noted that Tehran’s proposals appear to relegate a key issue that led President Donald Trump to launch strikes: the nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade, they say, are products of the war that both parties might use to exit a conflict that lacks a clear off-ramp for the U.S.
While Middle East tensions have fueled bitcoin’s rise in recent weeks, some analysts believe the price action indicates the cryptocurrency is exiting a bear market. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, said a breakout above $84,000 and $87,000 would be evidence that “we’re done with the bear market.”
If you look at the statistical impact of the previous crash to $60,000, there’s been only one scenario where the markets have hit new lows: the fourth quarter of 2022 during the FTX collapse,” van de Poppe said.
Although he conceded a cataclysmic event similar to FTX could happen again, van de Poppe asserted that, statistically, a new all-time high is typically reached in less than 12 months following such a collapse.
As of 3:30 a.m. EDT on April 27, market data show bitcoin has gained approximately 15% since the start of the month. The rally has helped narrow the cryptocurrency’s year-to-date losses to 11%, down from a peak of more than 20% seen at the end of March
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It was another session of see-saw price action for bitcoin on April 29, as the leading digital asset swung from a base just above $76,000 to a peak of $77,800 before tumbling just below the $75,000 mark. This late-day volatility followed the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated decision to leave interest rates unchanged.
The cryptocurrency’s movement appeared to mirror global equities, continuing a broader market trend of marginal daily losses that had persisted since Monday. According to daily chart data, bitcoin remained range-bound near $76,200 until late Tuesday, when it ignited the first of two significant rallies within a 24-hour window. The initial surge propelled the asset past the $77,000 psychological threshold, where it consolidated for several hours.
However, a second wave of buying pressure beginning around 5:30 a.m. EDT drove the price to a brief high of $77,882 before a sharp sell-off effectively erased the session’s progress. By 1 p.m. EDT, bitcoin was trading near $75,100, representing a 1.3% decline over 24 hours—a move that flipped its weekly performance into negative territory. Despite the immediate retracement, the asset remains on track to close April with double-digit gains, even as its market capitalization remains throttled at $1.52 trillion.
In his final press conference as Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell—who has recently faced personal broadsides from Trump administration officials—justified the Federal Open Market Committee’s hold stance by citing escalating Middle East tensions and “sticky” energy inflation. With Brent crude prices rebounding to levels seen before the U.S.-Iran temporary ceasefire, economists are sounding the alarm that the window for a “soft landing” is rapidly closing, raising the specter of a global recession
Still, reports that the Trump administration intends to maintain a strict blockade on Iranian oil signal that a diplomatic resolution remains elusive. In fact, after the latest talks proved to be a damp squib, the rhetoric from Washington has turned increasingly hawkish. Figures such as retired four-star Gen. Jack Keane are reportedly advocating for kinetic action as the primary lever to force Tehran back to the negotiating table.
However, analysts warn that a resumption of strikes on Iranian targets would almost certainly trigger a regional conflagration, with retaliatory strikes likely targeting critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf states.
Meanwhile, analysts warn that even tentative signs of easing around the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be enough to stabilize market sentiment. The market, they assert, is no longer trading only the risk of Middle East conflict; it is beginning to price the possibility that the global energy market could revert to a regime dominated by price wars and market-share competition.
According to a Bitunix analyst, this shift matters significantly for bitcoin and the crypto economy.
This shift matters through the inflation and liquidity channel,” the analyst explained. “A renewed rise in energy prices would directly constrain the market’s ability to price aggressive Federal Reserve easing. BTC may still maintain a relatively strong risk-asset structure in the short term, but if elevated oil prices persist for longer, expectations for future liquidity conditions could once again come under pressure.”
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Bitcoin regained its stride Monday, bouncing back above $80,000 after early morning jitters tied to Middle East tensions. Though the top cryptocurrency dipped to a session low of $78,203 around 6:30 a.m. EDT, it surged past $80,500 by midmorning, effectively erasing its losses and reclaiming momentum from Sunday night’s rally.
Prior to that intraday dip, bitcoin had surged to a commanding $80,617, marking a fresh three-month peak. This aggressive rally pushed the asset’s total market capitalization north of the $1.6 trillion milestone—a psychological breakthrough that solidified the narrative that the industry has finally emerged from its latest “ crypto winter.”
While several factors fueled the rise, some analysts tied the initial surge to reports that the U.S. Navy would escort shipping vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The risky move by the U.S. followed a weekend of sharp rhetoric between Washington and Tehran; the latter seized control of the vital shipping channel shortly after hostilities began.
While the blockade increased pressure on Iran, its refusal to give in to U.S. demands to reopen the strait to commercial ships has caused oil prices and inflation to rise. With the war increasingly unpopular at home, the Trump administration—eager to placate voters ahead of the midterm elections—began deploying warships to flashpoints to launch the escorts. U.S. officials revealed Monday that two American-flagged vessels had already passed through without incident.
However, reports of attacks on shipping vessels and claims by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that it repelled advancing U.S. Navy ships rattled markets. Although U.S. Central Command dismissed the Iranian version of events, the situation has clearly escalated. A fire at the Fujairah oil terminal and claims by the United Arab Emirates that it intercepted missiles launched from Iran underscored the growing danger.
For shipping companies, the latest episode suggests that unless the two belligerents reach a permanent peace agreement, normal transit through the channel will not resume. As a resolution stalls, economists say the prospects of a global recession are growing.
Following the skirmishes, oil prices rose, with Brent crude briefly reaching $115 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate jumping 3.3% to $105 per barrel. On Wall Street, the main indices were marginally lower at the time of writing after taking heavy losses earlier in the day. Bitcoin, conversely, reversed its early morning losses to bring its 24-hour gains back above 2%.
The price action saw nearly $270 million in leveraged bitcoin positions wiped out, with liquidated shorts accounting for close to $212 million. Overall, volatility across the cryptocurrency market resulted in $384 million in short bets and $170 million in long positions being liquidated.
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The early years of the decentralized finance (DeFi) boom were defined by a wild west approach to interoperability. As the blockchain ecosystem fractured into dozens of competing networks, the industry rushed to build “bridges”—digital conduits designed to move value across these isolated islands.
While these third-party bridges addressed a genuine market need, they arrived with severe architectural flaws. According to Przemek Kowalczyk, co-founder and CEO of Ramp Network, the problem wasn’t the intention behind these tools, but the inherent risk in their design.
Traditional third-party bridges typically operate on a “lock-and-mint” mechanism. To move an asset from Ethereum to Solana, for example, a user locks their original tokens in a smart contract on the source chain. The bridge then mints a wrapped or synthetic representation of that asset on the destination chain.
This architecture creates a massive honeypot for hackers. Because security often depends on a small set of validators or a narrow coordination layer, the attack surface is expansive. If the central vault holding the original assets is compromised, the wrapped tokens on the other side become effectively worthless. This fragility has led to billions of dollars in losses through high-profile exploits over the past several years.
The industry is now undergoing a fundamental shift away from these traditional structures. In their place, native swap-based approaches are becoming the standard for cross-chain interoperability. Unlike bridges that rely on synthetic representations, native swaps allow users to exchange assets across chains directly. Liquidity is sourced across multiple networks, and the transaction settles into the destination asset itself.
That removes several of the trust assumptions that made many early bridges fragile,” Kowalczyk explains. By settling directly into the native asset of the destination network, the need for “wrapped” tokens—and the centralized risks associated with them—is eliminated.
As the underlying rails of DeFi become more robust through native swaps, the way users interact with those rails is also changing. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) agents is shifting DeFi from a manual environment to an automated one.
Kowalczyk notes that agent frameworks like Openclaw are moving from experimental tools into broader integration. This transition signals a shift from theory to infrastructure, where execution becomes continuous and data-driven.
Agents can monitor liquidity, rebalance positions, adjust collateral, and route swaps without human input,” Kowalczyk says. For experienced participants, this represents a significant efficiency gain; for new users, it lowers the barrier to entry by handling the technical “heavy lifting” in the background.
This evolution is colliding with traditional finance (TradFi), particularly through the rapid adoption of stablecoins. For legacy companies that generated revenue from slow, expensive cross-border payments, stablecoins represent a paradigm shift.
Kowalczyk argues that the institutions that thrive will be those that stop viewing stablecoins as competition and start viewing them as infrastructure. Stablecoins compress settlement times and run 24/7, bypassing the traditional delays of correspondent banking.
Once someone experiences value moving at any hour and clearing in minutes, slower alternatives feel broken,” Kowalczyk observes.
While USD-pegged stablecoins currently dominate the market—reflecting the dollar’s role in global trade and reserves—the landscape is diversifying. Kowalczyk suggests that global competition with the dollar is not necessarily the right framework for other currencies.
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UThe ban applies to fintechs and payment firms, closing the back-end payment rail for cross-border flows, but individual crypto investors can still buy and hold assets.
Payments between an eFX provider and its foreign counterparty must move through a foreign exchange transaction or a non-resident real-denominated account in Brazil, with cryptocurrencies barred as an option.
A remittance firm cannot take reais from a customer, convert the funds into USDT, USDC or bitcoin and settle the payment abroad on a blockchain
The rule does not ban crypto trading. Investors can still buy, sell, hold and transfer cryptocurrency through authorized virtual asset service providers under Resolution BCB No. 521, which took effect February 2. Resolution 561 closes the back-end payment rail used by regulated eFX firms.
The change targets companies like Wise, Nomad and Braza Bank that had built stablecoin settlement into cross-border flows. Nomad, for example, uses Ripple's network to move funds between Brazil and the U.S. and settle in stablecoins, while Braza Bank issued a real-backed stablecoin on the XRP Ledger.
Brazil's crypto market is moving $6 billion to $8 billion a month, with stablecoins accounting for roughly 90% of volume, per Receita Federal data. The country ranked fifth in global crypto adoption in 2025, up from tenth a year earlier. About 25 million Brazilians hold or transact in crypto.
The resolution also restricts eFX to BCB-authorized institutions: banks, Caixa Econômica Federal, securities and FX brokers, and payment institutions acting as e-money issuers or acquirers. Firms without authorization can keep operating but must apply by May 31, 2027. They must use segregated accounts for client funds and file detailed monthly reports.
Resolution 561 expands eFX in one direction. Providers can now handle transfers tied to financial and capital market investments in Brazil or abroad, capped at $10,000 per transaction. The same limit applies to digital payment solutions not integrated with e-commerce platforms.
The rule is the second front in a broader regulatory push. In March, industry associations representing more than 850 companies pushed back against extending Brazil's IOF financial transaction tax to stablecoin operations.
Brazil's regulator is drawing a line for crypto to exist in the market, but not as eFX settlement infrastructure.
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The gains came after Apple (AAPL) joined peers with an earnings report that improved sentiment across the industry. The companies, which include Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN), all reported double-digit revenue growth earlier this week.
The earnings reports helped risk assets rise as renewed confidence in the AI growth story pulled investors back into equities and crypto, though the bounce so far reflects relief buying rather than conviction that a new rally has begun.
In a note shared with CoinDesk, crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin said the market is dealing with “short-term pressure with still-mixed structural factors,” including reduced rate-cut hopes, ETF outflows and higher geopolitical risk.
Crypto prices held this week even as oil surged and spot bitcoin ETFs saw more than $400 million of outflows as April came to a close.
Oil remains a key factor. Higher crude prices from the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could feed inflation, making central banks less willing to cut interest rates. That can weigh on crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more attractive.
The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% this week, though the four dissenting voices are the most since 1992. Mercado Bitcoin said the decision and the absence of clear rate-cut signals led markets to reprice policy expectations.
“In the short term, the market should remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data,” the company's head of research, Rony Szuster, said. “In the medium term, the structure remains dependent on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.”
Jerome Powell’s chairmanship at the Fed ends on May 15, and Kevin Warsh is expected to chair the June FOMC meeting,which could induce volatility given Warsh’s favor for tightening monetary policy.
The key test remains at $80,000. A break could draw new buyers, while a failed move may trigger selling if leveraged longs unwind. Stay alert!
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The Conservative and Labour parties argued Nigel Farage broke Commons rules by not declaring the £5 million, but Reform UK said it was an exempt, personal, unconditional gift.
Farage confirmed the gift in an interview with the Daily Telegraph, saying it was meant to keep him "safe and secure for the rest of my life" after a milkshake was thrown at him in 2019 and a firebomb attack on his home last year.
Harborne, a Thailand-based businessman with a 12% stake in stablecoin issuer Tether, made the payment in 2024. Farage announced his Clacton candidacy in early June last year and won the seat in July.
A Reform UK spokesman called the payment a "personal unconditional gift" given before Farage was elected and said his decision to stand as an MP was "entirely unrelated
The spokesman, the report added, said "We are confident everything has been declared in accordance with the rules."
The Commons code of conduct requires new MPs to register benefits received in the 12 months before their election, and says any benefit should be registered if there is doubt. Reform says the gift falls under the exemption for purely personal gifts.
The country’s main opposition Conservative Party wrote to Parliamentary Standards Commissioner Daniel Greenberg asking him to examine whether any of the funds were used to support political activity rather than security. Labour chair Anna Turley said Farage "appears to have broken the rules again."
Harborne gave Reform £9 million, then worth around $12 million, late last year in the largest single donation to a U.K. political party from a living person on record.
Earlier this month, BitMEX co-founder Ben Delo said in an op-ed he had given Reform £4 million ($5.1 million) since the start of the year.
The U.K. government imposed an immediate moratorium on crypto donations to political parties in March, citing the Rycroft review's warning that digital assets could be used to channel foreign money into U.K. politics.
The ban covers donations of any size and will be written into the Representation of the People Bill, with criminal penalties for non-compliance.
That same month, Farage invested £215,000 ($286,000) in Stack BTC, a London-listed bitcoin treasury company chaired by former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, taking a 6.31% stake through his investment vehicle Thorn In The Side.
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New data shows unusually high win rates in defense bets, building on research that 3% of traders drive prices and under 1% capture most profits.
Across political markets, such “longshot” bets typically succeed about 14% of the time. In military-linked contracts, success rates have topped 50% in some cases.
Markets tied to specific government policies, such as military and defense and foreign affairs, are harder to forecast using public information alone," the authors wrote, making them "more susceptible to information asymmetries," including insider trading or specialized knowledge.
In those markets, the gap between informed and uninformed traders may be widest, creating conditions in which a small group can consistently outperform not just by reacting faster, but by knowing more
For its part, Polymarket touts its market surveillance teams and cooperation with the Department of Justice on the Venezuela case. Trading on confidential knowledge is prohibited on the platform, as it is on Kalshi
The ACDC report's findings add to a growing body of research pointing in the same direction. A working paper from London Business School and Yale found that roughly 3% of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket.
Separate analysis from blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs showed that profits are even more concentrated, with fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. ACDC's contribution is to suggest where some of that edge may come from.
The report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study. Polymarket listed several date-specific contracts on whether a strike would occur. Markets tied to June 19 and June 20 expired without incident, and no longshot bets won.
The strike came at 18:40 ET on June 21. In the hours leading up to it, 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed across the contracts that ultimately resolved YES. Eight wallets shared about $1.8 million in profits, with one taking nearly $500,000.
The Pentagon had designed the operation to be unreadable from the outside, using decoy bombers and long-range stealth aircraft to avoid detection. Despite that, a small number of traders placed large, well-timed bets on the outcome.
The pattern extends beyond a single event. Across Polymarket’s military and defense category, the report found that in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution, winning longshot bets outnumbered losing ones, contrary to what market prices imply.
Longshot bets can outperform for other reasons, including mispricing or shifts in public expectations. But the consistency of the patterns, especially in markets tied to military decisions, suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages that others do not have.
ACDC, being a nonprofit research group funded through the Fund for Constitutional Government, has no surveillance product to sell, compared to Solidus Labs, whose own recent Polymarket analysis doubles as a marketing case for the platform it licenses to Kalshi.
ACDC's recommendations include identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on how granular contracts can become.
The report’s conclusion goes further, calling for “an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.”
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📊 Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady — What It Means for Markets

The U.S. Federal Reserve has once again decided to keep interest rates unchanged, signaling a cautious approach as it continues to evaluate the direction of inflation and overall economic strength.

The benchmark interest rate remains within its current range, a move that was largely expected by markets. After an aggressive cycle of rate hikes in previous years, the Fed is now taking a wait-and-see stance, balancing the need to control inflation without putting too much pressure on economic growth.

Why did the Fed pause?

Several key factors influenced this decision:

- Inflation is easing, but still not fully at the Fed’s 2% target
- The labor market remains strong, with steady job growth
- Economic activity continues to show resilience despite high rates

By holding rates steady, the Fed is giving itself more time to assess whether inflation will continue to decline sustainably.

What did Powell say?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank is not in a rush to cut rates. He reiterated that decisions will remain data-dependent, meaning future moves will depend on inflation trends, employment data, and broader economic conditions.

At the same time, Powell acknowledged that if inflation continues to cool, rate cuts could be considered later — but not prematurely.

Market reaction

Financial markets responded cautiously:

- Stocks showed mixed movement as investors digested the Fed’s tone
- Crypto markets experienced slight volatility, reflecting uncertainty
- Bond yields remained relatively stable

The overall message from the Fed suggests that while the tightening phase may be over, the pivot to rate cuts is still uncertain.

What comes next?

All eyes are now on upcoming economic data, especially:

- Inflation reports (CPI, PCE)
- Employment numbers
- Consumer spending trends

These indicators will play a crucial role in shaping the Fed’s next move.

The bottom line:
The Fed is holding steady for now — not tightening further, but not easing either. For investors, this means navigating a period of uncertainty, patience, and data-driven expectations.

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The early bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle says bitcoin needs to drop to about $57,000 sometime in October before beginning its ascent. A market analyst disagrees.
Despite a double-digit gain thus far in April, we are very much still in a bitcoin fall.”
Terpin is often called 'the crypto Godfather' for his involvement in the industry around 2013, when the digital asset sector was still small and somewhat misunderstood by the mainstream. Among his many ventures, Terpin founded Transform Group, one of the first PR firms focused on blockchain companies, CoinAgenda, one of the first conferences in the space and BitAngels, a crypto angel investor group.
His bearish view for this cycle stands in contrast to the consensus among analysts that the February low around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most of these bullish analysts cited renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token’s resilience during the Iran conflict and the oil price spike as part of their outlook.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Terpin said that during Asian trading hours on Monday, “the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected, with the high price of oil a factor.” He explained that this is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation.
While Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been seen, he disagrees with the timeline, adding that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Capitulation is a phase in which long-term holders exit in large numbers, signaling a peak in selling pressure
Terpin makes a reasonable case for a later-cycle bottom, but I don’t believe bitcoin has fully capitulated yet,” Fernandes said. “Historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, and we’re definitely not there yet.”
Terpin insisted that the fundamentals point more toward a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom.
That indicates somewhere around $57,000,” he said, predicting that it will happen sometime in October, about the same timeline from last year when BTC first dipped below $100,000, followed by the October 10 crash, when $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in the largest single-day event on record.
Fernandes added that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin.
Liquidity conditions remain tight, and risk assets broadly are still adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment,” he said. “Until we see a more decisive shift in monetary policy or a true washout event in crypto markets, downside volatility remains likely.”
The author and entrepreneur also said bitcoin will not see an all-time high (ATH) this year.
However, Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, disagrees.
While I'm hesitant to ever disagree with the 'Crypto Godfather,' his take seems overly bearish to me,” Greenspan said. “We still have lots of room to run this year, given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest a new all-time-high (ATH) certainly seems plausible.”
AdLunam's Fernandes also said market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms.
Sentiment hasn’t reached the kind of extreme pessimism that typically marks cycle lows,” he said. “To me, that says we may still need one more leg down – whether or not it aligns exactly with the $57,000 to $59,000 range – before a sustainable base is formed.”
Regarding Terpin’s $100,000 level, Fernandes said it serves more as a psychological signal than a strict technical threshold.
“A true bull market is defined by structural higher highs and strong capital inflows, not just a single price level,” he said. “That said, the psychological effects of hitting $100,000 could trigger exactly that behavior,” Fernandes added
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