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📊 WIN RATE & FEAR-GREED INDEX (FGI) ANALYSIS — updated through 2025-10-25
Daily community scalping win-rate data shows the FGI–win rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.10). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the “Extreme Greed” zone remains the riskiest for performance.
🔍 Quick take
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags the win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat it as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with days)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 45.54% — n=110
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.21% — n=126
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=214
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the overall average (44.92%) by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 55.45% • Neutral 48.41% • Greed 45.33% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a wholesale strategy shift).
➤ FGI <20: small sample — handle with care; priority remains order management.
#FGIInsights #TradingPerformance
Daily community scalping win-rate data shows the FGI–win rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.10). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the “Extreme Greed” zone remains the riskiest for performance.
🔍 Quick take
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags the win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat it as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with days)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 45.54% — n=110
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.21% — n=126
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=214
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the overall average (44.92%) by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 55.45% • Neutral 48.41% • Greed 45.33% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, favor early profit-taking when momentum fades.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to warrant a wholesale strategy shift).
➤ FGI <20: small sample — handle with care; priority remains order management.
#FGIInsights #TradingPerformance
📊 WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS — updated to 2025-09-27
Daily community win rate data shows the FGI–win rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.07). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the “Extreme Greed” phase continues to be the riskiest zone for performance.
🔍 Quick take
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) does not show a clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample size and should be treated as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.82% — n=94
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.32% — n=123
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.95% — n=205
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the 44.79% average win rate by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 51.06% • Neutral 52.85% • Greed 47.32% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
This reinforces that “Extreme Greed” is where discipline should be tightened the most, while Fear/Neutral deliver relatively stable performance around the average.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, and favor earlier profit-taking when momentum weakens.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences among Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to justify a wholesale strategy change).
➤ FGI <20: small sample; handle cautiously, with focus on order management.
#TradingStats #FGIInsights
Daily community win rate data shows the FGI–win rate correlation remains very weak (≈ -0.07). Win rate does not track FGI linearly; the “Extreme Greed” phase continues to be the riskiest zone for performance.
🔍 Quick take
In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) does not show a clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≥80) drags win rate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample size and should be treated as indicative only.
📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)
😨 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5
😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.82% — n=94
😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.32% — n=123
😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.95% — n=205
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)
Share of days above the 44.79% average win rate by band:
Extreme Fear 60.00% • Fear 51.06% • Neutral 52.85% • Greed 47.32% • Extreme Greed 12.00%.
This reinforces that “Extreme Greed” is where discipline should be tightened the most, while Fear/Neutral deliver relatively stable performance around the average.
📈 Implications for scalping
➤ FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, and favor earlier profit-taking when momentum weakens.
➤ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences among Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to justify a wholesale strategy change).
➤ FGI <20: small sample; handle cautiously, with focus on order management.
#TradingStats #FGIInsights
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