carrytrade
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The crypto carry trade can be attractive during periods of market stability, offering consistent yield opportunities. However, in times of high volatility, the same strategy can amplify risk and lead to rapid losses. Remember—an informed investor is a smart investor.
#Crypto #CarryTrade #Bitcoin #DeFi #RiskManagement #CryptoEducation
#Crypto #CarryTrade #Bitcoin #DeFi #RiskManagement #CryptoEducation
⚡ #BREAKING: Japanese government bond yields are surging — 10Y, 20Y, 30Y, and 40Y JGBs are hitting multi-decade highs 🚨
10Y JGB > 2%, 30Y ~3.4%+
This isn’t just local; it could ripple globally.
Why it matters:
Repatriation flows: Japanese investors, major holders of US Treasuries and foreign assets, may pull money back home as domestic yields rise, reducing demand for US debt.
Carry trade unwind: Higher JGB yields + stronger Yen squeeze leveraged traders, potentially forcing them to sell US stocks, gold, crypto, and other risk assets.
Global impact: Rising JGB yields act like a silent rate hike, draining liquidity and pressuring risk assets — even if the Fed pauses hikes.
Watch the 10Y closely; a sharp spike could trigger major market volatility. This could signal a classic carry trade unwind — historically a marker of big market shifts 🔄
💬 Binance crew — bullish on crypto or time to hedge? Share your thoughts 👇
$BROCCOLI714 $GUN $JASMY
#carrytrade #JGBYields #CryptoMarkets #bitcoin
10Y JGB > 2%, 30Y ~3.4%+
This isn’t just local; it could ripple globally.
Why it matters:
Repatriation flows: Japanese investors, major holders of US Treasuries and foreign assets, may pull money back home as domestic yields rise, reducing demand for US debt.
Carry trade unwind: Higher JGB yields + stronger Yen squeeze leveraged traders, potentially forcing them to sell US stocks, gold, crypto, and other risk assets.
Global impact: Rising JGB yields act like a silent rate hike, draining liquidity and pressuring risk assets — even if the Fed pauses hikes.
Watch the 10Y closely; a sharp spike could trigger major market volatility. This could signal a classic carry trade unwind — historically a marker of big market shifts 🔄
💬 Binance crew — bullish on crypto or time to hedge? Share your thoughts 👇
$BROCCOLI714 $GUN $JASMY
#carrytrade #JGBYields #CryptoMarkets #bitcoin
⚡ #BREAKING: Japan JGB Yields Spike — Global Markets on Alert 🚨
Japan’s bond market is roaring 📈
10Y, 20Y, 30Y, 40Y JGB yields are hitting multi-decade highs — 10Y over 2%, 30Y 3.4%+. This isn’t just local noise.
🔑 Why It Matters Globally:
• Repatriation Flows: Japanese investors may bring cash back home, reducing demand for US Treasuries.
• Carry Trade Unwind: Stronger Yen + higher yields = traders forced to sell US stocks, gold, crypto, and other risk assets to cover leveraged positions.
⚠️ Bigger Picture: Rising JGB yields act like a stealth global rate hike, sucking liquidity and hitting risk-on assets — even if the Fed stays calm.
📊 Watch the 10Y Closely:
Fast spikes could trigger serious volatility across markets. Classic carry trade unwind vibes here — the type that historically marks big turns. 🔄
💬 Binance Squad: Is crypto ready to hold strong, or time to hedge? Drop your takes 👇
$BROCCOLI714 $GUN $JASMY
#CarryTrade #JGBYield #CryptoMarkets #bitcoin
Japan’s bond market is roaring 📈
10Y, 20Y, 30Y, 40Y JGB yields are hitting multi-decade highs — 10Y over 2%, 30Y 3.4%+. This isn’t just local noise.
🔑 Why It Matters Globally:
• Repatriation Flows: Japanese investors may bring cash back home, reducing demand for US Treasuries.
• Carry Trade Unwind: Stronger Yen + higher yields = traders forced to sell US stocks, gold, crypto, and other risk assets to cover leveraged positions.
⚠️ Bigger Picture: Rising JGB yields act like a stealth global rate hike, sucking liquidity and hitting risk-on assets — even if the Fed stays calm.
📊 Watch the 10Y Closely:
Fast spikes could trigger serious volatility across markets. Classic carry trade unwind vibes here — the type that historically marks big turns. 🔄
💬 Binance Squad: Is crypto ready to hold strong, or time to hedge? Drop your takes 👇
$BROCCOLI714 $GUN $JASMY
#CarryTrade #JGBYield #CryptoMarkets #bitcoin
⚡ #BREAKING : Japan 10Y, 20Y, 30Y, 40Y JGB Yields Surging Hard — Global Markets on Edge 🚨
Something big is brewing in Japan right now 📈
Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields across the curve — especially 10Y hitting over 2%, 30Y around 3.4%+ — are spiking to multi-decade highs. This isn't just local noise.
Key points: • Repatriation flows: Japanese investors (huge holders of US Treasuries and foreign assets) might start bringing money back home as domestic yields become attractive again, cutting demand for US debt. • The Unwind: Stronger Yen + higher JGB yields are squeezing leveraged carry trades — traders forced to dump US stocks, gold, crypto, and other risk assets to cover cheap Yen borrowings.
⚠️ Bigger picture impact: Rising JGB yields are like a stealth global rate hike. They suck liquidity out of the system and hit risk assets everywhere — even if the Fed chills on hikes.
Keep a close eye on the 10Y — if it spikes too fast, we could see serious market volatility ahead.
This feels like a classic carry trade unwind signal... the kind that has marked major market turns in the past 🔄
💬 What do you think, Binance squad? Bullish on crypto holding strong, or time to hedge? Drop your takes 👇
$BROCCOLI714 $GUN $JASMY
#CarryTrade #JGBYields #CryptoMarkets #bitcoin
Something big is brewing in Japan right now 📈
Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields across the curve — especially 10Y hitting over 2%, 30Y around 3.4%+ — are spiking to multi-decade highs. This isn't just local noise.
Key points: • Repatriation flows: Japanese investors (huge holders of US Treasuries and foreign assets) might start bringing money back home as domestic yields become attractive again, cutting demand for US debt. • The Unwind: Stronger Yen + higher JGB yields are squeezing leveraged carry trades — traders forced to dump US stocks, gold, crypto, and other risk assets to cover cheap Yen borrowings.
⚠️ Bigger picture impact: Rising JGB yields are like a stealth global rate hike. They suck liquidity out of the system and hit risk assets everywhere — even if the Fed chills on hikes.
Keep a close eye on the 10Y — if it spikes too fast, we could see serious market volatility ahead.
This feels like a classic carry trade unwind signal... the kind that has marked major market turns in the past 🔄
💬 What do you think, Binance squad? Bullish on crypto holding strong, or time to hedge? Drop your takes 👇
$BROCCOLI714 $GUN $JASMY
#CarryTrade #JGBYields #CryptoMarkets #bitcoin
🚨 Yen Stablecoin Launch Sparks On-Chain Carry Trade Buzz! 🚨
Japan’s newly launched yen-pegged stablecoin is being positioned as a fresh funding vehicle for DeFi—thanks to the yen’s full convertibility and Japan’s ultra-low interest rates.
Rather than just another token, it could unleash a programmable version of the carry trade, where traders borrow cheap digital yen and chase high yields in dollar-linked DeFi pools.
📊 Why It Matters:
The yen flows freely across borders—unlike many Asian currencies—making it ideal for international DeFi use.
With domestic rates near 0.5%, borrowing yen digitally could become a low-cost funding strategy for yield-seeking crypto stacks.
Challenges remain: limits on redemption and Tokyo’s cautious regulatory stance mean adoption may take time. CoinDesk
🔥 Your Take?
Is this yen-stablecoin strategy the next big DeFi funding wave — or is it still too early and niche? 👇
#Stablecoins #DeFi #CarryTrade #CryptoNews #Japan
Japan’s newly launched yen-pegged stablecoin is being positioned as a fresh funding vehicle for DeFi—thanks to the yen’s full convertibility and Japan’s ultra-low interest rates.
Rather than just another token, it could unleash a programmable version of the carry trade, where traders borrow cheap digital yen and chase high yields in dollar-linked DeFi pools.
📊 Why It Matters:
The yen flows freely across borders—unlike many Asian currencies—making it ideal for international DeFi use.
With domestic rates near 0.5%, borrowing yen digitally could become a low-cost funding strategy for yield-seeking crypto stacks.
Challenges remain: limits on redemption and Tokyo’s cautious regulatory stance mean adoption may take time. CoinDesk
🔥 Your Take?
Is this yen-stablecoin strategy the next big DeFi funding wave — or is it still too early and niche? 👇
#Stablecoins #DeFi #CarryTrade #CryptoNews #Japan
🆘🆘🆘Get ready for BoJ when they will increase their interest rates . Carry trade will unfold ,and the correction will come🆘🆘🆘🫴 Stay tuned 🙏
#BoJ #BOJIntervention #carrytrade #Correction
#BoJ #BOJIntervention #carrytrade #Correction
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⚠️ Something bad is coming for crypto… it is moving behind the scenes and no one is talking 📉
After the recent drop, everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts, but the real danger may come from the Bank of Japan if it raises interest rates. This decision could trigger what is called Unwinding Carry Trade, where institutions pull their money out of risky markets like crypto and shift it to the Japanese yen.
The last two times the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, crypto experienced a sharp and sudden decline.
Many underestimate the situation… but the smart ones are preparing now before the shock occurs. (Check my next post for more information).
$TNSR $ZEC
#BoJ
#BankOfJapan
#carrytrade
#CryptoNews
After the recent drop, everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts, but the real danger may come from the Bank of Japan if it raises interest rates. This decision could trigger what is called Unwinding Carry Trade, where institutions pull their money out of risky markets like crypto and shift it to the Japanese yen.
The last two times the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, crypto experienced a sharp and sudden decline.
Many underestimate the situation… but the smart ones are preparing now before the shock occurs. (Check my next post for more information).
$TNSR $ZEC
#BoJ
#BankOfJapan
#carrytrade
#CryptoNews
Japan Pulled The Plug On Global Leverage
The sudden volatility in $BTC was not a crypto-specific event; it was a global margin call triggered by one of the most powerful macro forces in finance: the Yen carry trade. When Japan’s 2-year bond yield spiked past 1%, it signaled a critical shift in the world’s cheapest borrowing market. For years, massive funds borrowed ultra-cheap JPY to dump into high-risk assets—including crypto. That easy money just got expensive.
As the carry trade unwinds, funds must liquidate holdings across the board. Stocks and gold felt the pressure, and $BTC was no exception. This macro fear pushed Bitcoin below key support, initiating a devastating chain reaction. The market was already choked with leverage, meaning the initial macro push instantly triggered stop-loss cascades. What looked like random selling was actually a highly predictable sequence: macro shock leads to forced selling, which culminates in a leverage wipeout across assets like $ETH. Stay rational. The chain reaction is always the same.
Not financial advice.
#Macro
#Bitcoin
#Liquidity
#Crypto
#CarryTrade
🌊
The sudden volatility in $BTC was not a crypto-specific event; it was a global margin call triggered by one of the most powerful macro forces in finance: the Yen carry trade. When Japan’s 2-year bond yield spiked past 1%, it signaled a critical shift in the world’s cheapest borrowing market. For years, massive funds borrowed ultra-cheap JPY to dump into high-risk assets—including crypto. That easy money just got expensive.
As the carry trade unwinds, funds must liquidate holdings across the board. Stocks and gold felt the pressure, and $BTC was no exception. This macro fear pushed Bitcoin below key support, initiating a devastating chain reaction. The market was already choked with leverage, meaning the initial macro push instantly triggered stop-loss cascades. What looked like random selling was actually a highly predictable sequence: macro shock leads to forced selling, which culminates in a leverage wipeout across assets like $ETH. Stay rational. The chain reaction is always the same.
Not financial advice.
#Macro
#Bitcoin
#Liquidity
#Crypto
#CarryTrade
🌊
Japan Is About To Force Sell Your BTC
The biggest macro threat nobody is talking about just flashed red. Japanese 20-year bond yields just hit levels unseen since 1998. This is not a local problem; this is a global liquidity bomb aimed straight at risk assets.
For decades, the Yen Carry Trade was simple: borrow cheap JPY, buy high-yielding overseas assets like US bonds, stocks, and crypto. As JPY yields rise, that trade reverses. The cost of borrowing JPY skyrockets, forcing global investors to sell off their overseas holdings—including $BTC and potentially $XRP—to repay expensive Yen debt. This repatriation event tightens global liquidity suddenly and violently. Prepare for increased short-to-medium term volatility. The easy money era is ending.
Not financial advice. Trade smart.
#Macro
#Liquidity
#CarryTrade
#BTC
#Japan
🚨
The biggest macro threat nobody is talking about just flashed red. Japanese 20-year bond yields just hit levels unseen since 1998. This is not a local problem; this is a global liquidity bomb aimed straight at risk assets.
For decades, the Yen Carry Trade was simple: borrow cheap JPY, buy high-yielding overseas assets like US bonds, stocks, and crypto. As JPY yields rise, that trade reverses. The cost of borrowing JPY skyrockets, forcing global investors to sell off their overseas holdings—including $BTC and potentially $XRP—to repay expensive Yen debt. This repatriation event tightens global liquidity suddenly and violently. Prepare for increased short-to-medium term volatility. The easy money era is ending.
Not financial advice. Trade smart.
#Macro
#Liquidity
#CarryTrade
#BTC
#Japan
🚨
JAPAN RATE HIKE BOMBSHELL $BTC ALERT
BoJ decision Dec 18–19. This is NOT a drill. Japan is hiking rates. Carry trades are unwinding. Global liquidity is draining. Historically, $BTC retraces 42–77 days after these moves. A hike this week could trigger a short-term dip. The macro impact could be fading, but the risk remains for all high-risk assets. Position now or regret it.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
#CryptoRisk #SmartMoney #CarryTrade 💥
BoJ decision Dec 18–19. This is NOT a drill. Japan is hiking rates. Carry trades are unwinding. Global liquidity is draining. Historically, $BTC retraces 42–77 days after these moves. A hike this week could trigger a short-term dip. The macro impact could be fading, but the risk remains for all high-risk assets. Position now or regret it.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
#CryptoRisk #SmartMoney #CarryTrade 💥
⚡ MACRO BREAKING: Japan's Historic Policy Shift Incoming ⚡
🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan is preparing to flip the switch.
📊 Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai signals:
· 🎯 Policy rate could hit ~1.0% by June–July
· 🧭 Long-term neutral rate near ~1.75%
⚠️ This isn't just a rate hike — it's the end of an era.
Japan is exiting decades of ultra-easy money.
🌍 Global Ripple Effects:
· 🌊 Global liquidity tightens
· 💴 Yen carry trades unwind
· ⚡ Risk assets (including crypto) face volatility
🔥 CRYPTO MACRO IMPACT:
· Less yen liquidity worldwide
· Capital rotation out of risk-on plays
· Short-term turbulence before stability returns
📈 Are You Ready?
Smart money is already adjusting portfolios ahead of the shift.
👇 What's Your Take?
· 📈 Macro-driven breakout incoming?
· ⚠️ Short-term turbulence to navigate?
#BOJ #Japan #Yen #CarryTrade #BinanceSquare
$LUMIA
$RAVE
$DOLO
🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan is preparing to flip the switch.
📊 Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai signals:
· 🎯 Policy rate could hit ~1.0% by June–July
· 🧭 Long-term neutral rate near ~1.75%
⚠️ This isn't just a rate hike — it's the end of an era.
Japan is exiting decades of ultra-easy money.
🌍 Global Ripple Effects:
· 🌊 Global liquidity tightens
· 💴 Yen carry trades unwind
· ⚡ Risk assets (including crypto) face volatility
🔥 CRYPTO MACRO IMPACT:
· Less yen liquidity worldwide
· Capital rotation out of risk-on plays
· Short-term turbulence before stability returns
📈 Are You Ready?
Smart money is already adjusting portfolios ahead of the shift.
👇 What's Your Take?
· 📈 Macro-driven breakout incoming?
· ⚠️ Short-term turbulence to navigate?
#BOJ #Japan #Yen #CarryTrade #BinanceSquare
$LUMIA
$RAVE
$DOLO
Japan's inflation fell, even deflation MoM.
$BTC $SOL $SUI is very bullish, because Japan will be dovish again.
#carrytrade #JapanEconomy
$BTC $SOL $SUI is very bullish, because Japan will be dovish again.
#carrytrade #JapanEconomy
🚨 $BTC Just Got a Reality Check! 🇯🇵
The initial Bitcoin dip wasn't what you think. Forget the instant institutional sell-off – that was fast-fingered retail and algorithms reacting to the Japan rate hike headline.
Here's the deeper play: for years, the Japanese Yen’s rock-bottom rates fueled the “Yen carry trade.” Institutions borrowed cheap Yen, bought $USD, and chased higher yields (stocks, bonds… even $BTC ).Now? The US is leaning towards rate *cuts* while Japan is raising theirs. This crushes the carry trade – making Yen funding pricier and $USDC returns less appealing. That’s the real pressure building, and it hits *later*.
Expect more twists in 2026 as Japan continues to hike and the Fed potentially cuts. Buckle up. 🚀
#Bitcoin #Macroeconomics #CarryTrade #CryptoInvesting 📈
The initial Bitcoin dip wasn't what you think. Forget the instant institutional sell-off – that was fast-fingered retail and algorithms reacting to the Japan rate hike headline.
Here's the deeper play: for years, the Japanese Yen’s rock-bottom rates fueled the “Yen carry trade.” Institutions borrowed cheap Yen, bought $USD, and chased higher yields (stocks, bonds… even $BTC ).Now? The US is leaning towards rate *cuts* while Japan is raising theirs. This crushes the carry trade – making Yen funding pricier and $USDC returns less appealing. That’s the real pressure building, and it hits *later*.
Expect more twists in 2026 as Japan continues to hike and the Fed potentially cuts. Buckle up. 🚀
#Bitcoin #Macroeconomics #CarryTrade #CryptoInvesting 📈
🚨 $BTC Just Got a Reality Check! 🇯🇵
The initial Bitcoin dip wasn't what you think. It wasn’t institutions hitting the sell button – they move slower. It was retail and algorithms reacting *instantly* to the Japan rate hike news.
Here’s the play: for years, Japan’s super-low rates fueled the “Yen carry trade.” Institutions borrowed Yen, bought $USD, and invested in assets like stocks and… yes, $BTC .But now? The US is leaning towards rate *cuts* while Japan is raising theirs. This crushes the carry trade – making it expensive to fund and reducing returns. That’s the *real* pressure building, and it hits later.
Expect more volatility as this unfolds. 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year. ⏳
#Bitcoin #Macroeconomics #CarryTrade #Crypto 🚀
The initial Bitcoin dip wasn't what you think. It wasn’t institutions hitting the sell button – they move slower. It was retail and algorithms reacting *instantly* to the Japan rate hike news.
Here’s the play: for years, Japan’s super-low rates fueled the “Yen carry trade.” Institutions borrowed Yen, bought $USD, and invested in assets like stocks and… yes, $BTC .But now? The US is leaning towards rate *cuts* while Japan is raising theirs. This crushes the carry trade – making it expensive to fund and reducing returns. That’s the *real* pressure building, and it hits later.
Expect more volatility as this unfolds. 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year. ⏳
#Bitcoin #Macroeconomics #CarryTrade #Crypto 🚀
Japan’s BOJ Just Dropped a Christmas Bomb: Rate Hikes Are Coming in 2026! 🔥
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda went full “undercover boss” mode this week.
After 37 years of near-zero (and negative) rates – the longest “free money” era in history – he finally said it straight:
“Inflation is here, wages are rising, real rates are deeply negative. We’re done waiting. Rate hikes continue next year.”
Just a week ago he was still playing coy with “maybe, perhaps.” Now? Cards on the table – no more games.
The market reaction? Pure shock.
Wall Street carry trade kings who’ve been borrowing cheap yen for decades are scrambling. The legendary “yen funding pool” is closing shop.
No more easy arbitrage. Japanese assets are getting re-priced fast.
Big picture shift:
Stop asking “how low can the yen go?”
Start asking “how high will Japanese rates climb?”
This isn’t just a policy tweak. It’s the end of a 30+ year era – and the start of real volatility.
Global liquidity, carry trades, even risk assets like $BTC could feel the ripple.
Japan’s “Lying Flat King” just stood up. And he’s not going back to sleep.
Ready for what’s next? 👀
#BOJ #JapanRates #Yen #CarryTrade #Cryptowatch
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda went full “undercover boss” mode this week.
After 37 years of near-zero (and negative) rates – the longest “free money” era in history – he finally said it straight:
“Inflation is here, wages are rising, real rates are deeply negative. We’re done waiting. Rate hikes continue next year.”
Just a week ago he was still playing coy with “maybe, perhaps.” Now? Cards on the table – no more games.
The market reaction? Pure shock.
Wall Street carry trade kings who’ve been borrowing cheap yen for decades are scrambling. The legendary “yen funding pool” is closing shop.
No more easy arbitrage. Japanese assets are getting re-priced fast.
Big picture shift:
Stop asking “how low can the yen go?”
Start asking “how high will Japanese rates climb?”
This isn’t just a policy tweak. It’s the end of a 30+ year era – and the start of real volatility.
Global liquidity, carry trades, even risk assets like $BTC could feel the ripple.
Japan’s “Lying Flat King” just stood up. And he’s not going back to sleep.
Ready for what’s next? 👀
#BOJ #JapanRates #Yen #CarryTrade #Cryptowatch
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🚀Japan's monetary policy meeting time for short-term and long-term market considerations, has the opportunity arrived?
1 First, let's talk about the chip structure -- not great. From the perspective of a solid market, it doesn't look comfortable enough.
2 The Japanese monetary policy meeting is a buying opportunity worth paying attention to. Note that I said opportunity; risk-sensitive money seeks certainty.
Let's first talk about Japan:
Why pay attention to the monetary policy meeting? It's not the general opinion of 0.75 on the market's impact. If executed as planned, there seems to be no problem, and it is fully digested. The focus is on whether there will be any unexpected issues.
Now let's talk about Japan and the US:
Under the trend of interest rate cuts, the dollar tends to weaken, and the pressure on the Japanese exchange rate is a positive trend, which is beneficial in the long term.
Now let's talk about liquidity:
Currently, there seems to be no major issues with market liquidity (when there are issues, I tweeted about it on November 4th, and if there are liquidity problems again, I will likely tweet about it), and the long-term trend of easing has begun. The logic of capital outflow is valid.
From a deleveraging perspective, there are two important time periods to note.
1 Clarity to eliminate unexpected issues.
2 The last market accumulation explosion of Carry Trade in August developed from July to August, and there are clues in the market, especially in the 24 hours before the explosion. This is not alarmist but a neutral statement. Previously, I discussed Carry Trade chip structures and other issues on Twitter; if interested, please look for it yourself, I won't elaborate further.
Summary:
1 Danger is an opportunity; the trend of quantitative easing coexists with crisis, and opportunity outweighs danger.
2 The unsightly chip structure is a fact, and the reopening dates of Europe and the US are also there.
3 As a left-side investor, the long-term trend is the key principle. This moment is worth focusing on, seeking crisis and short-term (three months) certainty, gradually looking for opportunities to build positions in escaping top chips.
The above does not constitute investment advice; it is a self-summary and sharing of knowledge and action. Different opinions are welcome for discussion.
#日本加息 #carrytrade #流动性
1 First, let's talk about the chip structure -- not great. From the perspective of a solid market, it doesn't look comfortable enough.
2 The Japanese monetary policy meeting is a buying opportunity worth paying attention to. Note that I said opportunity; risk-sensitive money seeks certainty.
Let's first talk about Japan:
Why pay attention to the monetary policy meeting? It's not the general opinion of 0.75 on the market's impact. If executed as planned, there seems to be no problem, and it is fully digested. The focus is on whether there will be any unexpected issues.
Now let's talk about Japan and the US:
Under the trend of interest rate cuts, the dollar tends to weaken, and the pressure on the Japanese exchange rate is a positive trend, which is beneficial in the long term.
Now let's talk about liquidity:
Currently, there seems to be no major issues with market liquidity (when there are issues, I tweeted about it on November 4th, and if there are liquidity problems again, I will likely tweet about it), and the long-term trend of easing has begun. The logic of capital outflow is valid.
From a deleveraging perspective, there are two important time periods to note.
1 Clarity to eliminate unexpected issues.
2 The last market accumulation explosion of Carry Trade in August developed from July to August, and there are clues in the market, especially in the 24 hours before the explosion. This is not alarmist but a neutral statement. Previously, I discussed Carry Trade chip structures and other issues on Twitter; if interested, please look for it yourself, I won't elaborate further.
Summary:
1 Danger is an opportunity; the trend of quantitative easing coexists with crisis, and opportunity outweighs danger.
2 The unsightly chip structure is a fact, and the reopening dates of Europe and the US are also there.
3 As a left-side investor, the long-term trend is the key principle. This moment is worth focusing on, seeking crisis and short-term (three months) certainty, gradually looking for opportunities to build positions in escaping top chips.
The above does not constitute investment advice; it is a self-summary and sharing of knowledge and action. Different opinions are welcome for discussion.
#日本加息 #carrytrade #流动性
$BTC $ETH $SOL
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, with the probability rising to 90% based on positive inflation and wage growth data. Governor Ueda and Deputy Himino have reinforced these expectations by stating that discussions on a rate hike will be held. Political stability after the election and government support for the BoJ's independent decisions are also key factors.
The Japanese yen surged sharply, making it the best-performing G10 currency this week, driven by speculative position adjustments, despite increased USD/JPY volatility ahead of the decision.
Looking at previous events, Bitcoin pumped more than 10% before Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin conference on July 29, 2024 (US time: Night, July 28, 2024). Subsequently, the market peaked due to a "sell the news" reaction and a correction, worsened by the BoJ's rate hike of 0.25%, which forced foreign investors to sell their paper asset holdings in the market. Bitcoin’s market dropped 30% from its peak after that. The culmination occurred on August 5 with a carry trade event that triggered a 14% Bitcoin drop in a single day.
If history is likely to repeat itself, as retail crypto traders are already euphoric about Trump, signaling a temporary market peak. The BoJ has already hinted at a rate hike, with the right momentum expected after Trump’s inauguration. Bitcoin is projected to drop by 15% from its peak after the Trump event, with the carry trade peak anticipated on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 (assuming a similar scenario of a 5-day lag after the BoJ hike).
Predicted Dip Range: $88K – $92K
Red: Trump event
Blue: BoJ rate hike
Green: Deepest dump
Source: Tradingview, Reuters, Tradingeconomics
#carrytrade #BEARISH📉
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, with the probability rising to 90% based on positive inflation and wage growth data. Governor Ueda and Deputy Himino have reinforced these expectations by stating that discussions on a rate hike will be held. Political stability after the election and government support for the BoJ's independent decisions are also key factors.
The Japanese yen surged sharply, making it the best-performing G10 currency this week, driven by speculative position adjustments, despite increased USD/JPY volatility ahead of the decision.
Looking at previous events, Bitcoin pumped more than 10% before Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin conference on July 29, 2024 (US time: Night, July 28, 2024). Subsequently, the market peaked due to a "sell the news" reaction and a correction, worsened by the BoJ's rate hike of 0.25%, which forced foreign investors to sell their paper asset holdings in the market. Bitcoin’s market dropped 30% from its peak after that. The culmination occurred on August 5 with a carry trade event that triggered a 14% Bitcoin drop in a single day.
If history is likely to repeat itself, as retail crypto traders are already euphoric about Trump, signaling a temporary market peak. The BoJ has already hinted at a rate hike, with the right momentum expected after Trump’s inauguration. Bitcoin is projected to drop by 15% from its peak after the Trump event, with the carry trade peak anticipated on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 (assuming a similar scenario of a 5-day lag after the BoJ hike).
Predicted Dip Range: $88K – $92K
Red: Trump event
Blue: BoJ rate hike
Green: Deepest dump
Source: Tradingview, Reuters, Tradingeconomics
#carrytrade #BEARISH📉
See original
🇯🇵#日本加息 Is it a case of rain on an already leaky roof, or is it a case of undue worry? (Part One)
🔥 The Bank of Japan has issued a strong signal for interest rate hikes, and the market believes the probability of a rate hike on December 19 has soared to 64%-76%.
🔥 The 2-year yield has broken 1% for the first time since 2008.
🔥 The yen's exchange rate is at a historical low, having once fallen below 157.9 against the dollar.
👉 Many people have been discussing Japan's rate hikes in recent days, primarily out of fear of a large retreat from 'arbitrage trading,' which could trigger a wave of stock sell-offs related to arbitrage trading, and even a double hit on both stocks and bonds.
⏳ In times of panic, even crises that have not materialized become crises.
⏳ In times of rising markets, looming crises may go unnoticed.
👉 What pressure does the yen face?
The significant interest rate differential is a major source of the massive and ongoing outflow pressure on yen capital. This pressure is one of the core driving forces behind yen depreciation and has created a self-reinforcing vicious cycle.
⏳ Depreciation expectations → Capital outflow → Intensified depreciation → Reinforced depreciation expectations and further outflow.
When the interest rate differential changes rapidly, the logic of arbitrage may cease to exist, or even lead to a rush to exit, note that it is rapid. (We will discuss the logic of arbitrage opportunities later)
👉 Looking back at the June 2024 carry trade incident:
It was triggered by the market's strong expectation that the Bank of Japan would begin historic tightening, leading to a collapse of the yen's exchange rate (once breaking 160). Traders, concerned about future losses, preemptively sold Japanese government bonds, causing the yield on the 10-year bonds to surge past the psychological barrier of 1%, which in turn triggered concerns about rising market interest rates impacting corporate valuations and potential massive losses for financial institutions, eventually leading to a self-fulfilling double hit on both stocks and bonds before an actual rate hike had even occurred.
Transitioning to Part Two
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
🔥 The Bank of Japan has issued a strong signal for interest rate hikes, and the market believes the probability of a rate hike on December 19 has soared to 64%-76%.
🔥 The 2-year yield has broken 1% for the first time since 2008.
🔥 The yen's exchange rate is at a historical low, having once fallen below 157.9 against the dollar.
👉 Many people have been discussing Japan's rate hikes in recent days, primarily out of fear of a large retreat from 'arbitrage trading,' which could trigger a wave of stock sell-offs related to arbitrage trading, and even a double hit on both stocks and bonds.
⏳ In times of panic, even crises that have not materialized become crises.
⏳ In times of rising markets, looming crises may go unnoticed.
👉 What pressure does the yen face?
The significant interest rate differential is a major source of the massive and ongoing outflow pressure on yen capital. This pressure is one of the core driving forces behind yen depreciation and has created a self-reinforcing vicious cycle.
⏳ Depreciation expectations → Capital outflow → Intensified depreciation → Reinforced depreciation expectations and further outflow.
When the interest rate differential changes rapidly, the logic of arbitrage may cease to exist, or even lead to a rush to exit, note that it is rapid. (We will discuss the logic of arbitrage opportunities later)
👉 Looking back at the June 2024 carry trade incident:
It was triggered by the market's strong expectation that the Bank of Japan would begin historic tightening, leading to a collapse of the yen's exchange rate (once breaking 160). Traders, concerned about future losses, preemptively sold Japanese government bonds, causing the yield on the 10-year bonds to surge past the psychological barrier of 1%, which in turn triggered concerns about rising market interest rates impacting corporate valuations and potential massive losses for financial institutions, eventually leading to a self-fulfilling double hit on both stocks and bonds before an actual rate hike had even occurred.
Transitioning to Part Two
#套利交易 #CarryTrade #股债双杀
Howie1024
--
Steady Profit and Effective #逃顶 Review
If you are a steady investor, your goal is to win in the future and to take advantage of cycle dividends as much as possible. This content is suitable for you!
This content was posted on x last night, and the information about the 11.5 peak escape is also on x. If interested, I can transfer it over.
$NDX #纳斯达克 is as strong as expected, making a comprehensive review.
-2 months, the selling plan ratio of #BTC and altcoins, the K-line level is limited and did not sell at the highest point. Crypto began to show a weakening trend from -3 months. From the perspective of US stocks, facing profit pullback and continuation test.
-1 month, happened on 10.11, cost-effective accumulation of altcoins, after data analysis, facing reality delayed Christmas market expectations.
From October 27 to 30, the system liquidity red light gradually lit up, by November 3 it had become extremely serious, on November 4 gave up the buying plan, and adjusted the position ratio again. On November 5, a post was recorded, and on November 6, US stocks began to pull back. Crypto fell accordingly. Another line during this period was also the month of seven sisters' earnings reports, starting from #Tesla, where earnings reports were insufficient to support the stock price, and there were moments of self-doubt as to why the stock market was so strong? Tight liquidity is the clearest decision signal.
Since -3 months, I have been continuously screening altcoin targets and even did a new round of valuation calculations after 10.11. Because TEAM tends to favor low-frequency and left-side traders. Thus, I have also enjoyed the benefits of outperforming many non-contract right-side traders.
Later, during the worst liquidity in the crypto space, leverage was completely cleared. This behavior has often occurred in the past and belongs to calculating liquidity and yield ratios at the right time. In contrast, US stocks are relatively strong and unwilling to break down. We expect the compression of crypto by US stocks to replay, as in March to April, but the result was the opposite. Another factor is the SEC's pessimistic comments on interest rate cuts in December guiding the situation. Therefore, a series of scripts like showing you dead to force you to yield are staged, which have been tried and true.
On weekends and holidays, #SEC's "clever guidance" shows a clear hint of interest rate cuts, #polymarket data instantly reversed, and crypto stopped falling. #SEC has shifted from finding technical reasons to more explicit statements, and US stocks opened as expected.
Starting from November 5, the focus completely shifts away from specific targets and is basically focused on a macro perspective.
Exceeding word count, split into the next article.
If you are a steady investor, your goal is to win in the future and to take advantage of cycle dividends as much as possible. This content is suitable for you!
This content was posted on x last night, and the information about the 11.5 peak escape is also on x. If interested, I can transfer it over.
$NDX #纳斯达克 is as strong as expected, making a comprehensive review.
-2 months, the selling plan ratio of #BTC and altcoins, the K-line level is limited and did not sell at the highest point. Crypto began to show a weakening trend from -3 months. From the perspective of US stocks, facing profit pullback and continuation test.
-1 month, happened on 10.11, cost-effective accumulation of altcoins, after data analysis, facing reality delayed Christmas market expectations.
From October 27 to 30, the system liquidity red light gradually lit up, by November 3 it had become extremely serious, on November 4 gave up the buying plan, and adjusted the position ratio again. On November 5, a post was recorded, and on November 6, US stocks began to pull back. Crypto fell accordingly. Another line during this period was also the month of seven sisters' earnings reports, starting from #Tesla, where earnings reports were insufficient to support the stock price, and there were moments of self-doubt as to why the stock market was so strong? Tight liquidity is the clearest decision signal.
Since -3 months, I have been continuously screening altcoin targets and even did a new round of valuation calculations after 10.11. Because TEAM tends to favor low-frequency and left-side traders. Thus, I have also enjoyed the benefits of outperforming many non-contract right-side traders.
Later, during the worst liquidity in the crypto space, leverage was completely cleared. This behavior has often occurred in the past and belongs to calculating liquidity and yield ratios at the right time. In contrast, US stocks are relatively strong and unwilling to break down. We expect the compression of crypto by US stocks to replay, as in March to April, but the result was the opposite. Another factor is the SEC's pessimistic comments on interest rate cuts in December guiding the situation. Therefore, a series of scripts like showing you dead to force you to yield are staged, which have been tried and true.
On weekends and holidays, #SEC's "clever guidance" shows a clear hint of interest rate cuts, #polymarket data instantly reversed, and crypto stopped falling. #SEC has shifted from finding technical reasons to more explicit statements, and US stocks opened as expected.
Starting from November 5, the focus completely shifts away from specific targets and is basically focused on a macro perspective.
Exceeding word count, split into the next article.
The Yen Storm: Why the BOJ's Rate Hike Couldn't Stop the Slide
The Japanese yen is hovering around 156 to the US dollar as 2025 wraps up – still weak after a tough year, despite the Bank of Japan's bold move to hike rates to 0.75% in December (the highest since 1995). Instead of strengthening, the yen dipped further right after the announcement, highlighting a deepening challenge for Japan's currency defense.
Why is the BOJ struggling?
The core issue is the massive interest rate gap with the US (around 300-400 basis points), making yen assets less appealing. This has fueled a comeback in carry trades – borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher-yield assets abroad. Add in negative real interest rates (inflation at ~2.9% outpaces the policy rate), persistent capital outflows from Japanese investors seeking better returns overseas, and a fragile economy (Q3 GDP contracted ~0.6% QoQ), and the BOJ faces a tough dilemma: Hike too aggressively, and risk stalling growth; hold back, and inflation/depreciation spirals.
Past interventions (like trillions spent in recent years) have only provided temporary relief, and verbal warnings are losing impact. High public debt (>250% of GDP) limits fiscal firepower too.
Wall Street's view: Banks like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas (Societe Generale mentioned in similar contexts) are bearish, forecasting USD/JPY could hit 160-164 by end-2026 if differentials persist and BOJ tightening remains gradual.
Impact on everyday Japanese: Rising import costs are pushing CPI higher (~3% recently), squeezing real wages and household budgets.
Global ripple effects: The ~$20 trillion yen carry trade unwind could spark volatility in stocks, bonds, and yes – crypto markets. We've seen it before: Sudden yen strength forces deleveraging, hitting leveraged assets like Bitcoin hardest. If the 160 level breaks, watch for broader market turbulence.
Will 160 hold as the line in the sand? Or force a major BOJ intervention? And how might this currency battle spill into crypto in 2026?
#YenWeakness #BOJRateHike #CarryTrade
The Japanese yen is hovering around 156 to the US dollar as 2025 wraps up – still weak after a tough year, despite the Bank of Japan's bold move to hike rates to 0.75% in December (the highest since 1995). Instead of strengthening, the yen dipped further right after the announcement, highlighting a deepening challenge for Japan's currency defense.
Why is the BOJ struggling?
The core issue is the massive interest rate gap with the US (around 300-400 basis points), making yen assets less appealing. This has fueled a comeback in carry trades – borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher-yield assets abroad. Add in negative real interest rates (inflation at ~2.9% outpaces the policy rate), persistent capital outflows from Japanese investors seeking better returns overseas, and a fragile economy (Q3 GDP contracted ~0.6% QoQ), and the BOJ faces a tough dilemma: Hike too aggressively, and risk stalling growth; hold back, and inflation/depreciation spirals.
Past interventions (like trillions spent in recent years) have only provided temporary relief, and verbal warnings are losing impact. High public debt (>250% of GDP) limits fiscal firepower too.
Wall Street's view: Banks like JPMorgan and BNP Paribas (Societe Generale mentioned in similar contexts) are bearish, forecasting USD/JPY could hit 160-164 by end-2026 if differentials persist and BOJ tightening remains gradual.
Impact on everyday Japanese: Rising import costs are pushing CPI higher (~3% recently), squeezing real wages and household budgets.
Global ripple effects: The ~$20 trillion yen carry trade unwind could spark volatility in stocks, bonds, and yes – crypto markets. We've seen it before: Sudden yen strength forces deleveraging, hitting leveraged assets like Bitcoin hardest. If the 160 level breaks, watch for broader market turbulence.
Will 160 hold as the line in the sand? Or force a major BOJ intervention? And how might this currency battle spill into crypto in 2026?
#YenWeakness #BOJRateHike #CarryTrade
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