OnChain Analytics

Goldman just folded on their $5,400 gold target after ONE Warsh meeting

Goldman slashed their 2025 gold target by $500 to $4,900/oz (from $5,400). Why? Fed's not cutting rates this year. Period.

Here's the kicker: Goldman held that $5,400 target through January's ATH (~$5,600) AND through March when gold bled 10%+ (worst monthly drop since 2013). They kept saying "central bank buying is intact, structure hasn't changed."

Then Kevin Warsh runs his FIRST FOMC meeting and suddenly 9 out of 18 board members signal rate HIKES this year. Zero signaled that in March. Warsh straight up said "Fed missed inflation targets for years, time to get serious."

Goldman Economics now pushing Fed cuts to June 2026 and December 2026 (was December 2025 and March 2026). That's a full year delay. Rob Kaplan (Goldman VP, ex-Dallas Fed) told Bloomberg rate hikes could come as soon as September if CPI doesn't cool.

May CPI just printed 4.2% YoY (highest since April 2023, up from 3.8% in April). Energy spiked 23% from Iran tensions before the peace deal. Core CPI still at 2.9%, way above Fed's 2% target.

Goldman's scenarios:
- Bear case: Gold drops to $4,400 by year-end if Fed actually hikes
- Bull case: Gold rips past $6,000 by year-end
- $1,600 spread, one variable: rates

$BTC down 20%+ YTD, tracking gold's 25% drop from ATH. Same reason: high rates = opportunity cost for non-yielding assets vs bonds and deposits. HashKey's Tim Sun says we need inflation down, rates down, and liquidity up before Risk-on returns.

Goldman cutting targets after a 25% gold dump screams sell-side capitulation. Bad news might be priced. But next CPI print and Warsh's September stance will be the real tell.

Is this the accumulation zone or do we wait for clearer Fed signals?

$JAHM just flipped green 🐒

+1.47% on the 24h. Available on Coinbase & Phantom.

Next stop: $1.4M floor 💎🚀

🙈🙉🙊

$10.6B in $BTC options expire June 26 — 80% are about to die worthless

Most Call strikes sit at $80K+ from Q1 euphoria. $BTC now at $62.5K with 6 days left. Zero chance those print.

Here's what happened:

April: Strategy bought 34,164 $BTC at $74,395 avg. Market went full degen, stacked Calls at $80K expecting new ATH.

Mid-May: Spot ETFs bled $2B+ outflows. $BTC dumped 10% from highs.

June 1: Strategy sold $BTC for the first time in years (32 coins to pay STRC dividends). Their weekly buys dropped to 1,587 $BTC — lowest all year. STRC trading below $100 par. Funding dried up.

June 17: Deribit data shows 80% of contracts ($8.6B) are OTM. Most Calls clustered at $72K+, 15% above spot.

Max Pain sits at $74K — 18% pump needed. Historically $BTC gravitates there 60-65% of the time before Quarterly Expiry. But if $BTC stays under $70K Friday, Put holders walk away with $1-2.7B net advantage.

Bulls: "Short squeeze into Max Pain is textbook before big expiries."

Bears: "ETF outflows + Strategy slowing = no fuel. Max Pain is theory, not law."

Friday decides everything. Does $BTC close under $65K or rip to $74K?

BREAKING: Another one bites the dust at the Ethereum Foundation.

Hsiao-Wei Wang (co-exec director) just stepped down. That's yet another high-profile exit in 2024.

The $ETH Foundation board? Down to just 3 members now.

Vitalik thanked her for a decade of work, but let's be real — when execs keep walking out the door, it raises questions about internal dynamics.

Foundation drama aside, $ETH itself is holding up. But institutional confidence? That's another story when leadership keeps rotating.

Watch the narrative shift if more exits follow.

Alex Mashinsky just got hit with a lifetime CFTC ban from all regulated markets.

This wraps up the regulator's 2023 fraud case against him. Add that to his 12-year prison sentence and $48M+ forfeiture for torching Celsius.

Founder to felon speedrun complete. Another reminder: when CEXs and lenders blow up, retail gets wrecked and execs get cuffed.

Stay liquid, stay self-custodial.

🚨 $ETH funding crisis brewing

Former Ethereum Foundation insider Trent Van Epps dropping bombs: core dev needs ~$30M/year but funding model is broken.

EF treasury can't sustain this long-term. Meanwhile competitors are flush with VC cash and shipping faster.

This isn't FUD, it's math. If $ETH can't fund its own infrastructure while sitting on billions in treasury, that's a governance problem not a tech problem.

Watch how this plays out. Funding = velocity. No funding = stagnation.

Top 2 Solana plays rn:

$ZBCN
$JAHM — already up 9%

Both listed on Coinbase. If you're not watching these you're ngmi 🎯

Brutal week for $BTC. Fed hawk Kevin Warsh spooked the market + US-Iran deal uncertainty = $67k rejected hard, dumped to $62.3k. No clear direction yet, just chop.

Meanwhile the big boys are positioning:

• Morgan Stanley filing for cheapest $ETH & $SOL ETFs
• BlackRock launched a Bitcoin income ETF
• Illinois passed some anti-crypto tax law (watch this)
• Whales quietly stacking $BTC to 3-month highs

Price bleeding but institutional appetite isn't. Classic accumulation phase vibes.

Top 100 movers today:

$BEAT +20.5% — leading the pack
$DEXE +13.7% — strong follow
$NIGHT +3.4%
$QNT +2.8%
$ETC +2.5%

$BEAT and $DEXE showing real momentum. Rest are noise. Watch for volume confirmation before aping.

Morgan Stanley just filed amended S-1s for spot $ETH and $SOL ETFs.

0.14% sponsorship fee — literally the cheapest in the world for both assets.

Oh, and they're including staking for extra yield.

TradFi giants are now competing on fees AND yield mechanics. This is how you know institutional demand is real.

The floodgates are opening.

Market makers, exchanges, and crypto companies are running a coordinated scam on retail. They're colluding to pump bags, manipulate order books, and dump on you.

This is how the sausage gets made in crypto. Not your keys, not your coins—but also not your liquidity, not your fair price.

Stop trusting CEXs blindly. Stop chasing green candles without understanding who's on the other side of your trade.

$BTC and the broader market aren't just driven by fundamentals—they're driven by who controls the liquidity and the narrative.

Stay sharp. Question everything. Trade like the house is rigged—because it is.

$XRP sitting at a critical inflection point right now.

2-month RSI just tagged 50 — this is the line in the sand. Hold above = momentum holds. Break below = deeper correction incoming.

EGRAG CRYPTO pointing out a long-term ascending triangle forming, but here's the reality: none of that matters until $XRP clears the resistance overhead.

This is a make-or-break zone. Watch the structure, not the hopium.

80% of $BTC transactions today are worth less than a cup of coffee. Real demand? Lowest in 3 years.

800k transactions per day sounds bullish until you realize 80% are under 0.01 $BTC per tx. Some as small as 546 sats (~$0.30). You can't even buy a bottled water with that.

So where's the real money?

CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno dropped the numbers: sub-0.01 $BTC txs now make up 80% of daily volume, up from 44% in 2023. He calls it "Protocol-Driven Activity" — basically, it's not people moving money. It's protocols spamming the chain.

The culprits? Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20, and timestamping services. These protocols use OP_RETURN to inscribe data on-chain without creating actual spendable outputs. High tx count, zero economic value.

Mempool is now at 128k pending txs — highest in 16 months. Most are low-fee spam, but if this keeps up, anyone needing urgent transfers will get rekt by gas fees.

Here's the kicker: while on-chain activity looks busy, actual $BTC demand is collapsing. US ETFs are bleeding outflows at the fastest rate since launch in early 2024. Network Activity Index crossed long-term trend for the first time since mid-2024, but it's all smoke.

Imagine the highway packed with tiny delivery scooters carrying pocket change, while the armored trucks carrying real money are nowhere to be found.

For DCA folks, you're fine for now. But if you're trading or need fast settlements, watch out — fee spikes could hit you out of nowhere.

The debate:

Bulls say Runes and Ordinals prove $BTC is evolving beyond just money. Miner revenue from fees helps offset post-halving block reward cuts.

Bears say this is just spam dressed up as innovation. Block space should be for real economic transfers, not on-chain data storage with zero financial value.

Next 3 months will tell us if this traffic is real growth or just noise.

So what do you think — is this a sign of a growing ecosystem or just meaningless spam clogging the network?

Strive CEO Matt Cole bezeichnet das $STRC & $SATA Blutbad als ein "Leverage Liquidation Event" — kein Kreditproblem.

Seine Einschätzung: Überleveragierte Trader wurden mit Margin Calls ins Verderben getrieben. Die Kaskade hatte nichts mit den Assets selbst zu tun.

Cole vergleicht es mit früheren Treasury-Leverage-Explosionen — "sichere" Sicherheiten, die Degen in wahnsinnige Risiken locken.

TLDR: Verwechsle erzwungenes Verkaufen nicht mit Fundamentaldaten. Das war ein Liquiditätsengpass, kein Projekt-Todesspirale.

The $BTC pressure is real and Saylor's empire is showing cracks.

$STRC dropped from $100 to $82, bounced back to $88 but still bleeding. $MSTR has been dumping for days straight.

The elephant in the room: Will Saylor be forced to sell $BTC?

If $BTC dumps, alts are going to get absolutely rekt. This could cascade hard.

Watch the $MSTR chart closely. If it breaks key support, we might see forced liquidations that nuke the entire market.

Stay liquid. This isn't FUD, it's risk management.

$2.1B in crypto options expiring TODAY — $1.9B in $BTC, $234M in $ETH.

Max pain at $65k. We're trading well below that.

Greeks Live flagging the obvious: if $BTC loses $60k support and holds below, expect acceleration to the downside. Liquidity vacuum opens up fast.

Watch the tape. This isn't a dip to fade yet — it's a breakdown setup until proven otherwise.

KUB Chain just launched Community Burn — voluntary token destruction, no refunds, no price guarantees.

$KUB holders can send coins to the burn wallet from May 19 to June 30. Everything gets incinerated permanently at the official burn address early Q3, with full TX hash transparency.

This isn't Binance's corporate buyback model. KUB is putting supply control directly in the community's hands — aligning with their Whitepaper V4.0 decentralization push.

Context: KUB already burns quarterly from network fees (101K+ $KUB torched in Jan). This adds a voluntary layer on top.

Key disclaimers:
• Coins sent = gone forever
• Zero price pump guarantee
• User error = your loss
• Wrong address = no recovery

Reality check: After the Jan burn, $KUB price kept bleeding. Supply squeeze alone doesn't fix weak demand.

Community split:
• Bulls see this as rare proof of real decentralization in Thai crypto
• Bears ask: why burn your own bag when past burns didn't move price?

Deadline: June 30. Results drop early Q3.

Burn or hold? Your call.

⚠️ High-risk asset. DYOR before nuking your stack.

Upbit just listed 9 tokens on BTC/USDT pairs:

$PEAQ
$LIT (404M mcap)
$KMNO (133M mcap)
$MORPHO (1.3B mcap)
$GRAM
$LDO (281M mcap)
$PAXG (1.9B mcap)
$OSMO
$AMP

Korean exchange listings = instant volatility. Watch for the pump on low caps like $KMNO and $LIT. $MORPHO already at 1.3B but Korean retail loves DeFi narratives.

Upbit flow hits different. Track volume in the first 24h.

8 senior exits in 5 months. $ETH Foundation now has ZERO Co-EDs left.

Hsiao-Wei Wang just walked. 9 years deep in $ETH, last remaining Co-Executive Director. Her parting shot? "Ethereum is always bigger than any position, any organization, any era." Then ghosted.

She wasn't some mid-level dev. She was core protocol researcher since 2017—shipped Beacon Chain, The Merge, Shapella, Dencun. Vitalik himself called her role "possibly the hardest job at EF" when she took Co-ED in early 2024. Lasted 14 months.

2025 is a bloodbath year for EF talent:
- Tomasz Stańczak (Co-ED) out in Feb
- Tim Beiko, Josh Stark, Trent Van Epps, Carl Beekhuizen, Barnabé Monnot, Julian Ma all bounced
- 5 exits in May alone

Only Bastian Aue left holding the bag as solo ED now.

Meanwhile EF drops "Walkaway Test" doctrine in March—38-page manifesto saying $ETH must survive even if EF vanishes tomorrow. Vitalik echoes this in May: "EF is just one node, not the center." They're still deploying $9.86M in research grants Q1 alone, but the coordination layer is hollowing out fast.

Network runs fine. No tech issues. But who fills the gap when the people who aligned devs and community all leave at once?

Other L1s have active Foundations pushing narrative. $ETH chose radical decentralization and self-sufficiency. Philosophically pure. Tactically? Creates a vacuum.

Two camps forming:
- Worried: This is brain drain during $ETH's worst market cycle
- Zen: Smaller, protocol-focused EF is exactly what decentralization demands

One ED now steering the #2 L1 globally. Direction is clear. Manpower is not.

Your read—lean EF good for long-term resilience, or does $ETH need stronger institutional coordination right now?

$ASTER pumped 23% after Aster DEX dropped a tokenomics nuke: 99% of platform fees now go straight to buybacks.

For every token bought back, they burn an equal amount from reserves. Target? Cut total supply from 8B to 3B tokens.

Price already retraced but this is a massive upgrade from the old 80% model. Supply compression narrative is real.

Watch how buyback velocity plays out over the next few weeks. If volume holds, this could run again.