BlackCat Trading Mindset

From my perspective, price is once again making a clear attempt to break through the $72,000 region — a level that carries both technical weight and psychological significance in the current environment.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the trend indicator has flipped back to green for the first time since $BTC was trading near $91,000. That shift matters. It signals a meaningful improvement in short-term momentum after an extended period of weakness.
Capital appears to be rotating back in — not aggressively enough to confirm a full higher-timeframe reversal, but sufficient to support the current push.
If $72,000 is reclaimed decisively and held with conviction, the next logical test sits around $76,000. Beyond that, the measured move from the ascending triangle structure projects toward the $85,000 area — aligning with the theoretical expansion range of the pattern.
That said, risk management remains essential. In my view, a true structural invalidation would only occur if price breaks down through the $65,000 trend support. Until that level is lost convincingly, the short-term structure continues to favor buyers.
For now, momentum is improving, structure is stabilizing, and upside pressure is building — but confirmation still depends on how price behaves around $72,000.
#BTC

Over the past two years, I’ve noticed a recurring rhythm in the altcoin market — a correction phase that tends to last roughly 120 days.
This isn’t just a short pullback. It’s nearly four months of sustained weakness — long enough for early optimism to fade and be replaced by doubt, frustration, and exhaustion.
If you study the Total3 chart since early 2024, the structure becomes clearer. Altcoins rally aggressively, momentum builds, narratives spread — and then the market slowly rolls over. What follows isn’t an instant collapse, but a grinding decline where nearly every bounce gets sold into.
Q1 2024 delivered a sharp drawdown. Later in the year, we saw another expansion phase — only for it to transition once again into a similar 120-day correction cycle. The repetition isn’t perfect, but the behavioral pattern is familiar.
To me, this reinforces something important:
Altcoin cycles do not move in straight lines. They rotate through phases — accumulation, expansion, distribution, decline, and reset.
Most participants only focus on the expansion phase. But structurally, the real groundwork is laid during the decline. That’s where leverage is cleared. Weak narratives fade. Capital consolidates. Positioning becomes lighter.
$XRP
That process is uncomfortable — but necessary.
Right now, price is revisiting a significant support region, while RSI is approaching the lower boundary of its range. That doesn’t automatically signal a reversal. But it does suggest that downside momentum may be compressing.
Compression matters.
Historically, prolonged downside phases tend to transition into base-building environments before a new impulse begins. Not instantly. Not dramatically. But gradually.
This feels less like chaos and more like transition.
Not confirmation of a new bull phase yet — but potentially the late stages of a reset cycle.
And in markets, late-stage resets often quietly precede new structural beginnings.
#BTC $BTC $ETH

On the weekly timeframe, $BTC is showing something important: structure hasn’t collapsed.
Despite the violent correction we just experienced, the weekly candle body is still holding above major support zones. Each push lower has been met with visible buying interest. Wicks are getting absorbed. Demand is stepping in where it needs to.
To me, that suggests the medium-term structure is not broken — even if volatility remains elevated.
Now zoom out and consider the magnitude of the recent drop. This was one of the sharpest corrections in Bitcoin’s history in terms of speed and intensity. Liquidity dried up quickly. Forced selling accelerated. Structurally, the short-term panic was arguably as aggressive — if not more mechanically violent — than what we saw during the 2020 COVID crash.
But here’s the nuance:
After extreme flushes, markets rarely form clean V-bottoms without some form of absorption phase.
Historically, when #Bitcoin experiences aggressive deleveraging events, price often stages meaningful relief rallies before confirming whether the ultimate cycle low is in — especially if another leg lower is still possible. Strong shakeouts reset leverage, but they don’t instantly rebuild confidence.
That’s why I don’t view this as a straight-line reversal environment.
However, as long as weekly support levels continue to hold, the probability leans toward recovery extension rather than immediate breakdown.
The key is simple:
– Weekly structure intact → recovery can expand
– Weekly support lost → deeper structural shift
For now, the higher-timeframe framework remains constructive. Not euphoric. Not confirmed bullish. But stable enough to allow further upside attempts.
In markets like this, structure matters more than emotion.
#BTC

#Bitcoin is on track to record its weakest first quarter since 2018 if current performance holds. On the surface, that sounds alarming. But historically, Q1 has often been one of the most volatile periods of the year for $BTC — sharp moves in both directions are not unusual.
Looking back over the past 13 years, there have been instances where Q2 simply followed Q1’s direction. But there have also been multiple years where the rest of the year completely diverged from the first quarter’s performance. In other words, three months rarely define the entire cycle.
So the real question isn’t whether Q1 is red or green.
The real question is: what is the structure telling us right now?
Is the broader market structure trending higher or rolling over?
Are higher timeframes aligned — or are we seeing early signs of local exhaustion?
Is momentum expanding — or compressing?
Over the past 1–2 years, Bitcoin hasn’t been moving in one clean, extended macro trend. Instead, it has rotated through multi-month expansions and contractions. Impulse. Pullback. Rotation. Repeat.
That means seasonality and quarterly statistics matter less than structure.
In environments like this, anchoring bias becomes dangerous. Traders who expect Q2 to “fix” Q1 can miss what price is actually doing. The market doesn’t owe anyone symmetry.
What matters now:
– Trend alignment across timeframes
– Liquidity positioning
– Volatility expansion vs compression
– Momentum confirmation, not calendar expectations
If structure shifts bullish, Q1 weakness becomes noise.
If structure deteriorates further, Q1 was simply an early warning.
Time periods create headlines.
Structure creates trends.
And in Bitcoin, structure always wins.

$BTC