GEMINI

#Bitcoin’s MVRV has cooled off and is now trading close to its long term average, with the previous +1 standard deviation extreme fully reset. Valuations are moving toward levels that have historically provided better risk to reward opportunities, although the market has not yet entered the deeply undervalued zone typically seen near major cycle bottoms.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

During the previous 24 hours, 137,720 traders saw their positions liquidated, pushing the total liquidation amount to $418.80 million. The largest individual liquidation took place on Bitget, involving an #ETHUSDT_UMCBL order valued at $26.10 million.

Mining difficulty didn’t stay low for long. After winter storms temporarily shut down several operations and caused a brief dip, the network has already recalibrated. As miners brought their machines back online and hash rate recovered, the latest adjustment pushed difficulty right back up.

It’s a clear example of how responsive the #Bitcoin network is. External disruptions may slow things down for a moment, but the system quickly adapts and restores balance, keeping block times steady and the chain moving forward.

Market conditions have shifted as the 90D SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio moves below 1. This indicates that loss realization is now dominating over profit taking, which typically reflects weaker sentiment and tighter liquidity. In past cycles, the ratio has remained below 1 for several months before recovering. A sustained move back above this level would signal improving confidence and a healthier flow of capital into the market.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Overnight borrowing costs between banks are easing as the Federal Funds Effective Rate declines. This shift usually signals that policymakers are moving toward looser financial conditions. As funding becomes cheaper, liquidity across the system tends to improve. An increase in liquidity often benefits assets that respond strongly to capital flows, including Bitcoin and other risk driven markets.

A familiar pattern is forming as the #Binance Buying Power Index returns to previous low levels. This typically signals a temporary cooldown rather than a breakdown, showing that the market is pausing, liquidity is tightening, and aggressive buying has slowed. In past cycles, similar compressions have often been followed by upward moves once demand picks up again, making this setup historically lean more bullish than bearish.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

On February 6, the 7D EMA of Net Realized Profit and Loss hit -$1.24B per day, reflecting heavy realized losses from recent investors. It has since recovered to -$0.48B per day, suggesting that the pace of selling has eased. Even so, the market remains under pressure, with many participants still closing positions at a loss as the base formation phase continues.

#Ethereum is facing pressure in an already weak market environment, and recent data shows signs that whales are stepping back. The average #ETH order size on #Binance has been steadily decreasing since the start of the year, which suggests that large investors are reducing their activity.

This decline means big players may be cutting exposure or waiting for clearer market direction. With fewer large orders in the books, the market can become more sensitive to volatility and sudden price moves.

Retail inflows have dropped to a 9 year low. The average monthly #Bitcoin sent to Binance from retail investors is now around 384 BTC, the lowest level since 2017. For comparison, in January 2021, retail investors were sending nearly 2,700 #BTC per month. This shows retail participation is currently very weak compared to the last bull cycle.

La începutul anului, perspectiva instituțională pentru #Bitcoin era clar negativă. Când #BTC a trecut de $60,000, Gap-ul Premium Coinbase a scăzut la -$96, arătând o cerere slabă din partea investitorilor profesioniști, în timp ce fluxurile nete ale ETF-ului Bitcoin spot au avut o medie de -$210M, reflectând ieșiri de capital puternice. Această presiune de vânzare combinată a apăsat greu pe piață.

Acum situația se îmbunătățește. Gap-ul Premium #coinbase s-a restrâns la -$23.8, indicând că presiunea de vânzare se diminuează, iar fluxurile nete #ETF s-au recuperat la -$19M, ceea ce înseamnă că ieșirile s-au încetinit semnificativ. Deși ambele metrici sunt încă ușor negative, direcția s-a schimbat. Dacă devin pozitive, ar putea oferi un suport mai puternic pentru Bitcoin și îmbunătăți condițiile generale ale pieței.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Din 13 decembrie, indicele Coinbase Premium #Bitcoin a rămas sub zero, cu excepția zilelor de 5 ianuarie și 14 ianuarie.

The market structure currently reflects a strongly defensive stance. Put open interest sits well above spot exposure, showing clear preference for downside protection. In the February expiry, the main concentration lies between $70K and $60K. Looking further out, longer dated contracts extend lower, building from $50K down toward $30K into year end.

Hedging demand remains steady across different maturities. On the upside, call options are clustered above $120K in the second half of the year, suggesting participants are comfortable selling strength while keeping protection against deeper downside risks. At this stage, there are no visible signs of a sharp rebound developing.

În ultimele 24 de ore, un total de 70.428 de comercianți au fost supuși lichidării, aducând pierderile cumulate la 151,21 milioane de dolari. Cea mai mare lichidare unică a avut loc pe Bybit, implicând o #BTCUSDT comandă în valoare de 2,01 milioane de dolari.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Dealerii au gamma scurt între 70K și 58K, așa că, dacă prețul începe să scadă în acea gamă, hedging-ul lor ar putea accelera vânzarea. Pe de altă parte, există un cluster de gamma puternic în jurul valorii de 75K, ceea ce sugerează că acel nivel ar putea acționa ca o zonă de recuperare. Sub 70K crește riscul de scădere, în timp ce o mișcare spre 75K ar putea susține o recuperare pe termen scurt.

#Ethereum’s corectarea recentă pune acum o presiune reală asupra balenelor, deoarece profiturile nerealizate s-au transformat în negative în toate grupurile majore de deținători mari, inclusiv portofelele care dețin între 1k și 10k ETH, între 10k și 100k ETH și chiar 100k+ ETH. Ceea ce face ca această situație să fie interesantă este că #ETH nu a revenit nici măcar la minimul său din aprilie, ceea ce înseamnă că deținătorii mari se află deja pe pierderi pe hârtie înainte de un test complet al suportului major.

Dacă prețul scade și mai mult, unele balene ar putea face față unei presiuni mai mari pentru a vinde, ceea ce ar putea crește volatilitatea pe piață. În același timp, perioadele în care deținătorii mari sunt sub stres au coincis adesea cu formarea minimelor pe termen mediu, iar pentru moment ETH reușește încă să își mențină nivelurile cheie.