danmalikiTHEBBI

ABN AMRO's Senior Economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen reviews China’s macro outlook after the Iran conflict, noting stronger early‑2026 data but slightly lower GDP forecasts. The bank now projects China’s 2026 growth at 4.6% and 2027 at 4.5%, while raising CPI forecasts for 2026 and 2027 as higher energy prices push inflation temporarily higher and delay further monetary easing.
Stronger data but conflict-driven headwinds
"China’s economy started the year on a strong footing (also see our recent China Macro Watch, On Iran, Trump-Xi, NPC and bullish data). The biggest improvement came from fixed investment, which turned back to growth in January/ February (+1,8% y/y) compared to a contraction of -3.8% in 2025. This turnaround was led by infrastructure spending, driven by local government bond issuance, but also by faster manufacturing investment and an easing slump in property investment.

As the world’s largest energy importer and the key destination of energy shipments crossing the Strait of Hormuz, China is impacted by the Iran conflict. We still think there are various cushioning factors (e.g. high oil buffers, access to Russian energy) that will mitigate the impact. However, downside risks have risen due to the conflict, taking into account direct effects, and also indirect ones such as the hit to global demand."
"All in all, we tweaked our quarterly GDP growth profile somewhat (stronger Q1, weaker Q2), and as a result slightly cut our annual growth forecast for 2026, to 4.6% (from 4.7%) – within the government’s target zone of ‘between 4.5% and 5%’, as announced earlier this month. We slightly raised our 2027 growth forecast to 4.5%, from 4.4%.
Despite ongoing domestic excess supply, the spike in energy prices will lead to higher (cost-push) inflation in the coming months, even though the impact is cushioned. Before the conflict erupted, CPI inflation rose to a two-year high of 1.3% y/y in February, driven by LNY spending, food prices and base effects. Core inflation jumped to a seven-year high of 1.8% y/y, while annual producer price deflation eased further.

#china #ChinaDrama

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When a design choice shifts privacy from a burden to an empowered choice, it's worth highlighting. Here is a draft post for your community and a summary of the core concept.

Community Post Draft:

I recently came across a fascinating perspective on Midnight, and it completely changed my view on how we handle transaction fees and privacy. The realization wasn't about complex technical specs, but rather a single, powerful design choice that reshapes our entire digital interaction.

Historically, privacy has felt like a massive compromise. You either shared everything for "free" services or paid steep "gas fees" on public blockchains to maintain some control. The old model was built on forced trade-offs, making us click "agree" because we felt we had no other choice.

Midnight’s brilliant shift is moving from this forced compromise to empowered tech.

Their core innovation decouples network governance from network usage with a two-token system:

1. NIGHT: A capital asset for staking and governance.

2. DUST: A shielded, non-transferable resource that automatically regenerates by holding NIGHT. It’s used exclusively for transaction fees, keeping fee details private.

Why this one choice is everything:

• Autonomy: We get to decide what we share. There’s no "all-or-nothing" deal. We can use services without a total data drain.

• Predictability: Enterprises and regular users gain cost stability. You don't burn your valuable voting power or capital assets just to perform a basic data transaction. DUST is a renewable resource, not a fluctuating financial barrier.

• A "Gasless" Experience: Developers can hold NIGHT to generate enough DUST to cover transaction fees for their users. Applications can be "free" at the point of interaction, making the tech feel smoother and more respecting of boundaries.

This small design choice by IOG and the Midnight foundation is a powerful step toward making privacy a standard feature, not a compromise. It empowers users, removes friction, and makes tech work for us, not on us.

I'm curious to hear your thoughts. What small design choice in your favorite tech has given you a sense of empowerment or autonomy?

Let's discuss.

Summary: Privacy as an Empowered Choice

This concept marks the shift from forced trade-offs—where you must "pay" for a service with your data or a hefty fee—to a system of empowered tech where tools are designed to work for you without exploiting your privacy. This isn't just a technical change; it's a fundamental change in the digital value exchange.

Key principles of this shift include:

• The End of "All or Nothing": We move away from binary choices. Tech like On-Device Processing means the intelligence lives on your hardware, not in a massive, snooping cloud.

• Data Sovereignty: You own your digital identity and can "revoke" access. Technology like Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) lets you prove information (e.g., that you're over 18) without revealing the underlying sensitive data.

• Transparency and Granular Control: You should be able to toggle specific permissions rather than clicking one single "Agree" button. Companies must explain why they need info, allowing you to decide if the benefit is worth the share.

• Psychological Freedom: When you are no longer being "watched," your digital behavior becomes more authentic, free from the "chilling effect" of constant data harvesting.

This shift occurs when tools allow you to control data without losing functionality. It’s the move from forced trade-offs to empowered tech.

1. The End of "All or Nothing"

Historically, digital privacy felt like a sacrifice: you either shared everything to get "free" services or stayed offline. Now, Privacy-Enhancing Tech (PETs) and On-Device Processing mean you get the smarts without the snooping.

• Old Way: Apps upload your data to a cloud to learn about you.

• New Way: AI models run locally on your hardware. Your data stays put, but the "smart" features still work.

2. Granular Control

Privacy feels like a choice when you can toggle specific permissions rather than clicking a single "Agree" button.

• Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP): A tech that lets you prove something is true (like being over 18) without revealing the underlying data (like your birth date).

• Data Minimization: Services only collect what is strictly necessary for the task at hand.

3. The Value Exchange

When privacy is a choice, you decide the "price" of your data.

• Sovereignty: You own your digital identity and can "revoke" access at any time.

• Transparency: Companies explain why they need info, and you decide if the benefit (like a better recommendation) is worth the share.

4. Psychological Freedom

When you don't feel "watched," your digital behavior becomes more authentic. It removes the "chilling effect" where people self-censor because they know their data is being harvested for long-term profiles.

Would you like me to find some specific tools or platforms that prioritize this kind of user-led privacy?

#TrumpSaysIranWarHasBeenWon #OilPricesDrop #US-IranTalks #US5DayHalt

Pentru a reprezenta vizual conceptele Rețelei Midnight și abordarea sa față de confidențialitatea digitală, am generat o serie de imagini care conceptualizează funcția rețelei, arhitectura sa și aplicațiile sale în lumea reală.

1. Conceptualizarea Divulgării Selective și a Sistemului cu Două Token-uri

Prima vizualizare este o infografică detaliată care prezintă relația dintre cele două token-uri ale Rețelei Midnight și abordarea "Zero-Knowledge" pentru confidențialitate.

Această imagine reprezintă:

• Divulgare Selectivă: În colțul din dreapta sus, vezi o metaforă pentru identitatea utilizatorului, unde un utilizator poate împărtăși atribute specifice, verificate (cum ar fi fiind "peste 18" sau "credential valid") fără a dezvălui întreaga sa set de date personale subiacente (data nașterii, numele complet). Aceasta este esența abordării "privatității raționale".