Oil prices are impacting $BTC

Today's macroeconomic clues are:
The US has imposed additional sanctions on Iran,
targeting international companies and ships.

At the same time,
market rumors suggest that the US-Iran deal
is almost finalized.
It may seem distant,
but the first impact is on oil prices.

Sanctions on ships and companies
→ Oil transport becomes more uncertain,
traders should add a risk premium
to oil prices.

If oil prices rise
→ Inflation expectations won't easily give way,
the room for Fed rate cuts
will be reevaluated by the market.
Slower rate cuts
→ US bond yields remain supported,
the dollar also won't easily fluctuate.
In this scenario, the crypto market
becomes more sensitive.
With high interest rates still in play
→ Capital tends to stay
in the dollar and short-term bonds,
$BTC risk assets
could be the first to get shorted.
But history has another side.

If the US-Iran deal actually happens
→ The oil risk premium should retreat,
inflation pressure decreases,
the market will reprice
rate cuts and liquidity.
Therefore, today $BTC
is not just watching the candlesticks.
It's keeping an eye on:
whether oil prices will go out of control,
whether US bonds will loosen up,
whether ETF funds will keep flowing out.
The fear and greed index stands at 23,
indicating that sentiment is cold.
But volume is still active,
capital hasn't disappeared,
it's just waiting
for the macroeconomy to stabilize.
If this trend continues,
when dollar liquidity improves,
$BTC and high liquidity altcoins
will be the first to benefit.