Erik Solberg

Šodien daudzas valstis ir neapmierinātas ar to, kā Amerikas Savienotās Valstis "iebiedē" citus caur sankcijām, kariem, tarifiem & tirdzniecības noteikumiem. Tomēr, neskatoties uz savu milzīgo parādu, ASV joprojām ir pasaulē visspēcīgākā valsts. Daži iemesli, kāpēc neviens nevar viņus izaicināt.
1. Dolāru slazds
Lielākā daļa pasaules tirdzniecības notiek ASV dolāros. Ja vēlaties iegādāties naftu, zeltu vai elektroniku, parasti jums ir nepieciešami dolāri.
Bet ASV kontrolē globālo banku "slēdzi." Ja kāda valsts neseko ASV noteikumiem, ASV var to atslēgt no pasaules naudas sistēmas. Tas padara par neiespējamu, ka šī valsts var iegādāties vai pārdot kaut ko starptautiski & Kad tas notiek, viņu imports apstājas, bankas sasalst, un cenas eksplodē nakti.

In the current market regime, most participants are blinded by the allure of upside volatility, often ignoring the mathematical certainty of tail risk. When we backtest $BTC since 2014 & $ETH since 2016, the data reveals a stark divergence between daily mean returns and the probability of portfolio ruin. While Bitcoin offers a modest daily mean return, its high standard deviation suggests that the "average" day is statistically unstable.

The real danger lies in the Expected Shortfall (ES). At a 99% confidence interval, our Monte Carlo models show that during extreme events, the average loss for ETH escalates to -20.20%. With historical minimum returns hitting -51.8% for BTC and -59.8% for ETH, it is clear that intraday liquidations can effortlessly bypass traditional stop-losses. In these scenarios, the "Buy the Dip" crowd and "Weak Hands" are nothing more than sacrificial exit liquidity for institutional algorithms.

Ultimately, the gap between a 29% pump and a 60% drawdown highlights the necessity of risk-adjusted returns over nominal gains. As we move toward 2026, survival will not be determined by conviction, but by who has stress-tested their portfolio against these fat-tail distributions.The market is designed to transfer wealth from the emotional "HODL" cult to the cold,data-driven elite. If you don't understand the math, you are the yield.
#TrumpNewTariffs #MacroAnalysis #BTCVSGOLD #Binance #WriteToEarnUpgrade

Tirgi darbojas kā izsoles. Pircēji un pārdevēji nepārtraukti sarunā vērtību. Kad viņi vienojas, darījumi pieaug. Kad viņi nepiekrīt, cena pārvietojas ātri.
Tirgus profils ir rīks, kas palīdz jums saprast šo procesu.

Apspriedīsim to detalizēti.
Kāpēc tirgus profils ir svarīgāks par cenu darbību?
Sveču/cenu darbība tikai parāda, kur cena pārvietojās. Savukārt, tirgus profils parāda pieņemšanu, noraidīšanu un līdzsvaru.

Tirgus profila struktūra, kas parāda kontroles punktu (POC), vērtības zonu un noraidīšanas astes — galvenās izsoles balstītas tirgus analīzes sastāvdaļas.

1. As Per Data (Merged Quantitative & Technical Overview) 📊

Spot Price & Levels 💰: $BTC is currently tradng between $68,762 - $69,694.
The chart identifies a (HVL) and Call Resistance pivot at $70,000.
Net Exposure (DEX/GEX) ⚖️: Net DEX remains deeply negative at -$3.59 Billion, indicating a strong downward "gravity" from market makers.
Block Trade Flow 💹: A massive influx of Call Buying (35,655 contracts) vs Put Buying (19,666 contracts). Whales are aggressively positioning for an upside move.

Technical CVD & Liquidity 💎: The 4H chart shows "Accumulations from the buyers" in the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) at the current lows, while highlighting "Huge Sellside Forced Liquidity" (stop-loss pockets) resting on the left.
Volatility Profile 🌪️: IV has stabilized at 47%, down from the 81% panic zone.IV Percentile is at 82.5%, suggesting options are still relatively expensive but the immediate "fear" has subsided.
2. Deep Analysis: The Quant-Technical Divergence 🔍

Our Quant Model reveals a high-stakes battle between institutional accumulation & dealer-driven price suppression.
The Accumulation Absorption 🛒: The technical chart shows a clear CVD accumulation at the $68k range.
Aligns perfectly with the 35k+ Call contracts bought in block trades. Whales are buying the dip.
However, Net DEX is -$3.59B, dealers are hedging these calls by selling the underlying, keeping price “stuck” despite buying pressure.

The $70,000 Gravity Flip ⚡:The HVL ($70k) is the line in the sand.As long as price is below $70,000, we are in a Negative Gamma Regime. Any bounce is likely to be sold off by dealers.
Reclaiming $70k is the only way to trigger a "Gamma Squeeze."
Upside Targets (The Golden Pocket ): If $70,000 is reclaimed, the chart points to $76,000 - $78,000 (Golden Pocket) and the Value Area High (VAH).
Heavy Call Resistance ($72k - $80k) starts to build up in the GEX profile.
3. Institutional Sentiment & Expected Moves 🏦

Strategic Outlook 📈: Large institutions are "Strategically Bullish but Tactically Cautious."
Bottom Fishing 🎯: Actively using $68k level to build long-biased spreads (Call Spreads/Call Diagonals).
They do not expect a total collapse to $60k (Major Put Support).
Anticipating a Squeeze ⏱️: High volume of calls for Feb 27 expiry suggests timing a move for late February.
Risk Management 🛡️: Despite the buying, "Put Bias" (Skew) is still in the red zone.
They are keeping downside protection in case $68,000 (0DTE Support) fails.
4.Market Sentiment Scale (1-100) 📊

Current Score: 49/100
Verdict: Neutral-to-Short Build-up (Transitioning) ⚖️
Reasoning: The score has improved from 32 to 49. We are on the verge of a Neutral (50) flip.
Why not above 50? Because the price is still below the HVL ($70k) and Net DEX is still negative. Until the price breaks the dealer's sell-wall at $70,000, the "Short Build-up" remains the dominant mechanical force, even if Whales are trying to buy.
Our Practical Trading Strategy (The Quant Model Way) 📝:
The Short Trap ⚠️: Avoid shorting aggressively here because the CVD Accumulation and Whale Call Buying are massive.This is a potential trap for late bears.
The Confirmation ✅: Wait for a 4H close above $70,200.
Once the HVL is reclaimed, the negative DEX will turn into a tailwind (short covering), and the path to the Golden Pocket ($76k) opens up.
Stop Loss 🛑: A clean break below $68,000 invalidates the accumulation thesis and would likely trigger the "Forced Liquidity" cascade shown on your chart.
#MarketRebound #MarketSentimentToday #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again #BTC走势分析

If you're active in crypto from 2024 & earlier, chances are, you heard about MANTRA and its token, $OM. Not because it quietly built something revolutionary, but because it delivered one of the most dramatic boom-and-bust cycles and now trying to rise from the ashes.
Early Days: 2020-2023
MANTRA’s journey actually started in a fairly unremarkable way. Back in 2020, it launched on Polkadot’s RioChain as a generic DeFi platform fighting for attention in an overcrowded market. For years, $OM traded like a forgotten asset, stuck between $0.02 and $0.15. By October 2023, it had sunk to around $0.0173, a level that practically screamed
"Nobody Cares about You"

The Evolution: From DeFi Shadow to RWA Spotlight (2024)
In mid 2024, MANTRA embraced the hottest buzzword of the cycle " RWA" & suddenly, the project was no longer an ordinary DeFi project. Partneships with with UAE giants, like MAG Group ($500M+ in real estate assets) and Zand Bank & the acquisition of crucial licenses from VARA (Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority), effectively made $OM as the "Regulated King" of RWA.

The market reacted aggressively. After the mainnet launch, $OM exploded. By the end of 2024, the token was trading near $3.83.

Ignored Project → Market Darling
The Peak: The $9 Illusion (Feb 2025)
January 2025 was pure vertical price action. Institutional adoption Narrative + Extreme speculation made OM to touch new ATH: $8.99 – $9.04 on February 23, 2025

📉 The Massacre: "Black Sunday" (April 13, 2025)
Then came the wipeout. Within hours:
Price collapsed from $6.30 → $0.37 ~92% Crash

A brutal crash that annihilated many portfolios.But Why this Crash happened?
Supply Expansion: Shortly before the crash, 888M+ new OM tokens minted, Supply doubled (890M → 1.78B)
Whale Movement:On-chain data from Arkham showed:17 large wallets(Laser Digital linked) moved 43.6M tokens to exchanges.

Liquidity Gap:
Sunday night with thin order books and heavy leverages, conditions & timings were perfect for a liquidation cascade.
⚖️ The Fallout: Lawsuits and "Damage Control"
After the crash, the team moved into damage control mode.CEO JP Mullin rejected insider selling allegations and blamed CEX liquidations.To calm investor anger, Mullin burned 150M team tokens (with ~300M total planned).
On May 6, 2025, Burwick Law launched an investigation, alleging insiders dumped before the crash and misled investors. By the end of 2025, $OM was trading around $0.069

Full Circle: Quiet beginnings → explosive success → brutal collapse → survival attempt.
🔄 The Resurrection: 2026 Migration & Rebrand
As of February 2026, MANTRA is attempting a reset. Between December 2025 and January 2026, its ERC-20 tokens were retired and migrated to the native chain. On January 19, 2026, a 1:4 redenomination went live, where 1 OM became 4 MANTRA tokens, expanding supply. On February 13, 2026, #Binance confirmed migration support. The old OM will be delisted on March 2, followed by the new #MANTRA ticker launch on March 4.
My Honest Opinion:
I don’t know whether OM / MANTRA will ever reclaim its former highs , only time can answer that. What I do know is that investors who lived through the $9 collapse haven’t forgotten. The real challenge isn’t price recovery, but whether trust can truly be rebuilt. History shows that only a handful of projects manage a genuine revival after a crash of this scale; most fade into irrelevance.
What’s your view? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.
#MarketRebound #writetoearn #EducationalContent

Right now, #Ethereum is on a critical junction.A Short Term Rally is on the cards but overall structure is still BEARISH. Lets break it down 👇
1. Technical Structure: The "Liquidity Grab" Zone:
POC Acceptance: Price continuously is trading below Point of Control (POC) levels which is confirming sellers have the upperhand.
A potential bounce expected to VAH (Value Area High) & to Imbalance Zone(Approx $2,300 - $2,380) to grab upisde liquidity before continuing Downtrend.
$2200-$2,380 levels confluance with Fib.Golden Ratio (50%-61.8%) which may turn out to be a Resistance Area.
Retailers might consider this bounce as " Trend Reversal" but its a tactic to grab upside liquidity and to Trap BULLS.

2. Order Flow: CVD Divergence & Seller Dominance
CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) also confirming the Bearish Bias:
Aggressive buyers did try to breakout and gain some momentum & weaken the sellers pressure but Aggressive sellers + passive sellers are sitting at the top not giving them any chance of a breakout.

3. THE BIG BOYS: Institutional Hedging & Options Sentiment
While retail is hopeful, the institutions are betting on Downside:
The Put/Call ratio is at 2.2 - 2.5, meaning big institutions are buying protection against a massive drop.They have already "capped" the upside by selling Calls at $2,200 - $2,350. They don't expect it to go higher.The market is in a "Short Gamma" state. This means if the price starts slipping, mechanical selling will kick in, making the crash even faster.Right now, Historical Volatility > Implied Volatility. The market is primed for a huge move, and it’s likely downward.
📉 My Analysis & Targets
Market is in a "Tinderbox" situation right now where even a small negative catalyst can trigger a massive sell-off.
Major Support: $1,417 -$1587
Resistance zone ($2190 -2300+) : Wait for the Rejection here and Take Trade after that. Ride the Trend 📉 Not Against It.
#ETH #BullTrap #MarketRebound #PEPE‏

Tirgus šodien ir satraukts, 2026. gada 13. februārī, kad ASV valdība publicē inflācijas (CPI) datus par janvāri. Kamēr lielākā daļa cilvēku skatās tikai uz vienu lielu skaitli, patiesībā ir trīs noslēpti faktori, kas ietekmē tirgu.
1. "Paslēptā" inflācijas skaitlis
Virsraksta skaitlis tiek gaidīts, ka samazināsies līdz 2.5% (samazināts no 2.7%). Tas izklausās pēc labām ziņām, bet eksperti ir noraizējušies par "Pamat CPI." Tas ir preču, piemēram, apģērbu un pakalpojumu, cenas, izslēdzot pārtiku un gāzi. Bankas, piemēram, JP Morgan un Goldman Sachs, sagaida, ka šis skaitlis paliks "lipīgs" ap 0.34% mēnesī. Ja šis skaitlis nesamazinās, tas nozīmē, ka inflācija patiesībā nav pazudusi, un Federālā rezervju sistēma, visticamāk, turpinās uzturēt augstas procentu likmes ilgāk.

[WASHINGTON/TEHRAN — FEB 12, 2026] – The geopolitical floor just dropped. After a grueling three-hour closed-door session at the White House, President Donald Trump and PM Benjamin Netanyahu have emerged with no definitive agreement on Iran.
For the crypto markets, this "inconclusive" result is the ultimate red flag. While the masses are sleeping, the smart money is already positioning for a massive volatility spike.
1. The "Midnight Hammer" Threat: History is About to Repeat
In a chilling post on Truth Social today, Trump explicitly reminded Tehran of Operation Midnight Hammer—the June 2025 stealth strikes that decimated Iran’s nuclear core.
"Last time Iran decided they were better off not making a Deal, they were hit with Midnight Hammer. It did not work well for them. Hopefully, this time they will be more reasonable." — Donald Trump
$TRUMP isn't just bluffing; he’s setting the stage for a 2026 sequel. When the "Hammer" drops, liquidations follow. In 2025, the crypto market saw a $20 Billion wipeout in under 2 hours.
2. The $70,000 Trap: Why the Support is Fragile
Bitcoin is currently hugging the $70,000 psychological level, but the sentiment is turning "Extreme Bearish."
Technical analysts warn that if negotiations in Oman (Round 2) fail this weekend, BTC could see a flash crash to $60,000 or lower.
The "Armada" Factor: The US has moved a massive naval armada, including the USS Abraham Lincoln, into the region. A single kinetic "accident" in the Strait of Hormuz will send the DXY (Dollar Index) skyrocketing, sucking the life out of risk assets like BTC and ETH.
3. Iran’s Secret Weapon: The Crypto Squeeze
Reports indicate that the IRGC now controls nearly 50% of Iran’s crypto ecosystem. As the US Treasury tightens the noose on "Sanction Evasion," Binance users should be wary of sudden regulatory "Black Swan" events or exchange-specific FUD that could freeze liquidity during a conflict.
🛡️ YOUR 48-HOUR SURVIVAL PLAN
​Watch the Omani Mediators: Any "walk-out" by Iranian negotiator Abbas Araghchi is your signal to move to USDC/USDT​Hedge with Gold/Stables: The "Board of Peace" initiative by Netanyahu is a diplomatic shield, but the military buildup suggests the shield is thin.
Instead of reacting emotionally: Know your liquidation levels. Respect volatility expansion, Avoid oversized directional bets.Because the real danger isn’t war headlines.It’s being overleveraged when volatility explodes.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
Trump wants a "Grand Bargain," but Netanyahu is demanding a "Total Reset" of Iran’s missile power. With Iran refusing to budge on its ballistic arsenal, the diplomatic path is narrowing.
The Hammer is raised. Don't be under it when it falls.
$TRUMP $AVNT #CZAMAonBinanceSquare #USIranStandoff #eth #Binance #WhaleDeRiskETH