Pelin Ay

Interest in Bitcoin is Falling

Recently, the price has fallen sharply, retreating to around 70K. During this decline, there are strong negative spikes in netflow, indicating that investors are withdrawing BTC from exchanges during the drop. However, occasional positive spikes also show that liquidity for selling hasn't completely disappeared during the decline. The importance of the Binance chart becomes apparent here. Coins flowing into the exchange while the price is falling indicate that selling pressure continues.

In the most recent part of the chart, netflow is generally in negative territory, meaning BTC continues to flow out of exchanges. Despite this, the price remains weak, and the recovery after the drop appears limited.

Objectively speaking, coins are being withdrawn from exchanges, but the price is still not generating strong demand. Therefore, momentum remains weak, and the price direction remains under downward pressure.

In short, there is liquidity outflow, but because demand is insufficient, the price structure remains weak. $BTC

Izskatās, ka Asteram ir grūti pārspēt 0.8$ šajā tirgus vidē. #Aster mūs ir padarījusi par daudz naudas tās sākotnējās kotēšanas laikā. Es domāju, ka mums vajadzētu iegādāties arī dažas īsās pozīcijas 😅 $ASTER

Ethereum is at the mid-range resistance of its falling trend. A daily close above $2118 could push it up to $2500. A trend reversal would only occur with a break above this resistance. Until then, the falling trend seems likely to continue. $ETH

Bitcoin has once again broken above its upward trendline. If it makes a daily close above $72,750, we might see some movement for #altcoins. However, a close above $81,500 is necessary to officially declare an upward trend. $BTC

BNB ir uzkrājies $660-$570 diapazonā. Es tirgošos šajā diapazonā, līdz notiks izlaušanās. Virziens tiks noteikts ar izlaušanos. Tā kā galvenā tirgus tendence ir lejup, samazināšanās varbūtība ir augstāka. $BNB

XRP Whales Gathering Selling Liquidity

The ratio on the chart is hovering around 0.912. This means aggressive sell orders outnumber buy orders. The side selling via market orders is dominant. The side acquiring liquidity is mostly sellers. In short, there is aggressive selling pressure on the order flow side.

The price is around $1.34 and appears weak. Because the ratio is below 1, market orders aren't trying to push the price up. Buyers may be passively waiting with limit orders. Price movement isn't supported by aggressive buying flow.

The side acquiring liquidity is sellers, and the side providing liquidity is buyers. So, there aren't any buyers in the market; however, there isn't aggressive demand pushing the price upward.

If the price remains weak and the ratio is below 1: The market is moving towards selling pressure in terms of order flow.

Since there is a correlation between the ratio and price on this chart, it seems that selling pressure will continue for some time. $XRP

Silver failed to break the $95 resistance level, but this resistance is now weak. I think it will break through. The trend is still upward. $75 is strong support. $XAG

Zelts nespēj pārtraukt savu vidējā tendences pretestību ($5340). Skaidrāka virziena aina parādīsies, kad tiks pārtraukta zona, ko esmu iezīmējis ar dzeltenu kasti diagrammā. Es negaidu lielu kritumu #Zeltā šajā kara vidē. Jebkuri kritumi būs sekli un īslaicīgi. $XAU #XAUUSD

Kastes atbalsts: $4987
Kastes pretestība: $5385

Sui is maintaining its downward trend and there is liquidity at $0.52, so I expect the price to gradually fall to this level. $SUI

Chainlink continues its downtrend and I would say it's in a resistance zone. Depending on the market, it could continue to fall as far as $5. $LINK

LTC has formed a bearish flag within a downtrend. Target: $32
$LTC

If the Reaction Rise is Over, Let's Continue the Fall
The structure that stands out in the chart is the irregular but sharp spikes. This means that transfers are not consistently high; however, there are significant jumps at certain moments. These sudden increases usually indicate short-term selling liquidity in the market. When miners send assets directly to exchanges, these assets are usually sent for trading, not for storage; therefore, market participants monitor this data as an early signal of potential selling supply.

In the last section, transfer amounts are generally in a low range but progress with sharp jumps. This structure tells us two things:

1- There is no continuous selling pressure
2- However, periodic liquidity releases are occurring

Miners transfer to exchanges from time to time to cover their costs or realize profits. The reason why transfers to large exchanges are particularly monitored is that these platforms are the selling points with the highest trading volume. Therefore, transfer spikes are considered important for understanding the short-term supply side of the market.

In the current picture, there is no continuously rising transfer trend. This indicates that there is no systematic miner distribution. However, occasional high-volume transfers can create local selling walls during price upward attempts. This limits supply pressure as long as transfers remain low. However, sudden high transfers, as seen in the chart structure, can add extra selling liquidity to the market while the price is rising. This can cause rallies to progress more erratically and with more difficulty.

In summary, the current state of the chart shows that there is no constant distribution pressure from miners, but that selling liquidity is released into the market from time to time. This pattern is usually seen in markets where the price progresses with reaction rallies and pullbacks rather than strong trends. Since we are seeing a reaction rallies, it is not difficult to guess what will happen next. $ETH

The downtrend in Solana is nearing its end, which is an intermediate trend. The $100-$105 range acts as resistance. If it closes above $105 for three consecutive days, the downtrend will end. We suggest monitoring it. $SOL

To interpret the sharp reserve increase in January and the price crash in February, we understand that the most critical break in the chart is here. While miner reserves increased strongly, we immediately saw the price #bitcoin sharply decline to the 70K range. This type of structure generally confirms an accumulation of supply ready for sale.

In the current chart, #Bitcoin is showing weak consolidation around 71K, while miner reserves are still at high levels. This indicates that potential supply pressure has not been completely cleared. If reserve increase occurs with price weakness, the risk of selling continues. Although reserve increase seems to have stopped here, it is still quite high.

Especially during these geopolitically risky times, a liquidity squeeze in the market could initially lead to a flight from risky assets, and then to strong demand for cash and the dollar. If the war continues, in the short term, institutional investors may switch to a monitoring mode, miners may increase their selling tendency for safe cash flow, and high reserve levels may put pressure on prices. In this case, liquidity tests below 70K would not be surprising.

However, we know from past periods that in the medium to long term, if the war increases energy costs and mining costs, after a certain level, instead of selling, a supply restriction may be seen. This would increase risky assets in the medium term. Because small investors and whales can most easily transport their money through cryptocurrencies during international travel. In short, although the increase in reserves may cause a decline in the short term, this situation may turn positive in the medium to long term. $BTC

The total chart is very parallel to the #Bitcoin chart. If the amount of money in circulation exceeds 2.5 trillion, it might become interesting. A war environment always benefits risky assets. #Total

Ethereum is in an accumulation zone. The price is stuck between $2118 and $1764. There's a battle between buyers and sellers, and there's no clear winner yet.

$ETH is currently in a downtrend and near the mid-trend resistance. Therefore, considering securities like #bitcoin and #GOLD I don't think this resistance will be broken in the short term. $1350 stands out as a potential support level.

Bitcoin is defending the $64,800 support level well. However, we can't yet say the trend has reversed upwards. A close above $81,500 is necessary for a trend reversal.

The $72,750 resistance is also a very strong one. It hasn't been breached for days. My bias is still short, but I will switch to watching if $72,750 is broken. $BTC

XRP Binance Chart Consolidation Alert

On a macro scale, XRP experienced a strong and high-volume upward breakout in the last quarter of 2024. Following this, the price tested above $3 with intense volatility. After this peak, the structure entered a period of significant weakening. The current price has fallen to around $1.3.

A clear descending trend line has formed in the XRP price since the last peak, with falling troughs and peaks. The SMA(14), SMA(30), and SMA(50) are sloping downwards, and the price is below these averages. This combination technically confirms that the trend direction is still downward.

While volume was strong and explosive during the initial upward movement, it decreased in the subsequent period. There were occasional sharp sell-off candles during the decline, but a sustainable recovery volume did not materialize. This indicates that the buying side is weak in the market, and the reaction movements are temporary.

The $1.3 support level has worked before. The price is currently just above this area. The descending trend line on the upside is acting as dynamic resistance.

So, the chart shows a downtrend at the top and is stuck at a horizontal support line at the bottom, waiting for a breakout to determine the direction.

In summary:
Medium term downtrend
Negatively sloped averages
Falling peak – falling trough structure
Weakening momentum

Considering all these factors, a downward breakout in price seems more likely. $XRP

Gold is at an upward trend resistance level. If it breaks through this resistance this week due to war news, I think it could reach $6000. $XAU

A war environment always benefits #Gold and #Silver. I had already mentioned that the $70-74 range is a strong support level for silver per ounce. The news came later. Now we need to watch the $96 resistance level. If this resistance is broken, we could see very sharp increases. We will clarify this further after the opening of global stock markets tomorrow. $XAG