AriaNaka

1. Forming bias → what I expect?
2. How to enter?
A scenario ≠ a prediction.
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1. Form bias → what I expect → what I bet on
Forming a bias is important as it’s your framework for positioning.

You’re not making a prediction → you’re forming a rough idea of the direction of the market on a certain timeframe.
If you have enough reasons to think the probability of a certain direction is good enough, you can decide to bet on that bias. You can start thinking about and planning your entry and invalidation.
You can have a daily bias, a weekly bias, or a higher timeframe cycle bias.
The latter is what I’m going to do here.
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So, let’s form my macro bias for the crypto market.
Where are we now, and what do I expect to happen next in the bigger picture?
After that, we’ll look at how I plan to get involved.
> Macro Bias forming:
1. Cycle Structure
To form a macro bias, let’s look at the structure.
With structure, I don’t mean the last few candles or the most recent price action; I mean the structure of the entire cycle.
Instead of thinking in time (like a 4-year cycle) or in terms of price increase/decrease, let’s think in terms of structure.
Here's a good representation of a textbook cycle structure:

- Stage 1: bull
- Stage 2: bear (range low forms)
- Stage 3: accumulation below macro range (deviation)
- Stage 4: reclaim macro range & breakout of stage 3 range
- Stage 5: bull into range high, and eventually more parabolically into new highs (above macro range)
It tells you a lot about what to expect in terms of price action, where to enter in terms of risk/reward, where invalidation levels are, and where to get the hell out.
But it doesn’t tell you how price will get there.
In some examples, price reclaims the macro range low and starts stage 4, then almost parabolically shoots up to the range high and stage 5 (like in the example above).
But in other examples, it fully respects the cycle structure, yet instead of quick continuation, it retraces the entire macro range low reclaim pump back into the range low and grinds there for a year, before completing the cycle. (FET as example below)

Interestingly, if you look at the FET cycle example above, you can see that within the bigger macro cycle, a full mini cycle has formed with all the stages. All within stages 4 and 5 of the macro cycle.
As I said, sometimes the macro cycle stages play out quickly and aggressively. Sometimes we get pullbacks, which can come in different places and formats.
One thing that is often similar with these pullbacks and breaks within a bigger cycle is that they often form mini-cycle structures.
And the breaks of these mini-cycle stages (like stage 3 accumulation into stage 4) often happen around key levels of the macro range.

With these two, for example (above), their mini cycles happened after prices reached the macro range highs of the macro cycle, already in stage 5.
But we could see that the parabolic part into new highs of the macro cycle was still missing.
The mini cycles formed and were savage, with over 70% price declines, and they took 1+ year.
But the eventual breakouts of the mini cycle stage 3 happened at a key level (the range low zones here), and the mini cycle played out and rolled back into the macro cycle and its parabolic phase.
> Bitcoin’s current Cycle Structure
If we now take a look at Bitcoin’s cycle structure, I get a sense of unfinished business in the parabolic part into new highs of stage 5, and a potential mini cycle structure forming.

We do not know yet how exactly it will look, but instead of predicting → react.
Watch the key levels, wait, and look for a potential mini cycle stage 3 range, and look for a breakout and reclaim.
My take here:
- Currently in a mini cycle downtrend without confirmation of reversal yet.
- Looking for a mini cycle stage 3 to develop and a breakout around a key level.
- The current range high has potential, but as long as we don’t get the breakout and reclaim, we could: a) range for a lot longer, or b) later this year drop lower to form a mini cycle bottom around one of the other key levels: mid-range → range low zones.
- Not fading a reversal because I expect the macro cycle structure to pick up again with its most parabolic part after.
- We do not know yet how exactly it will look, but instead of predicting → react.
Watch the key levels, wait, and look for a potential mini cycle stage 3 range, and look for a breakout and reclaim.
Don’t predict, gamble, by trying to catch knives everywhere.
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Bias forming — Part 1: Structure recap
The bias is that after this mini-cycle resolves, Bitcoin continues in the macro cycle structure into the most parabolic part.
Let’s move on to another factor that plays a role in forming my bias:
2. Stocks & Gold
Stocks:
I’ve been posting about this since 2023, but Bitcoin has lagged behind many stocks this bull cycle since 2022.
Same cycle structures, just Bitcoin catching up 100–300 days later.
Same range low reclaims, stages, bla bla.

Currently, most of these stocks are still in the same macro cycle, but most of them have already completed or are completing the final part of it, the parabolic phase.
Bitcoin, being Bitcoin, is late again.

So yes, after looking at Bitcoin’s cycle structure, and now also at how Bitcoin has been lagging behind stocks, both strengthen my developing bias towards macro cycle continuation after this mini cycle plays out.
Again: we don't need to exactly mimic Google and bottom here (could but don't need to). Everything's cycle structure internally can play out differently. But yet, you still look at the same things;
A) Bias forming by macro stage structure
B) Key level for reversal possibility
C) Mini cycle stage 3 bottom and breakout
Gold:
Bitcoin and Gold are still very correlated.
If you haven’t looked deeper into that relationship, it makes sense that people find it strange Bitcoin isn’t running while Gold is.
The similarities make it seem logical that if money flows into one, it should partially flow into the other.
You can see the “Bitcoin failed” posts going around, and I get it.
But if we look closer:
a) they are very correlated, yet often inverted on immediate moves, and
b) on the bigger picture, it’s more of a lead–lag relationship, not simply “going up together.”
Bitcoin has moved up before while Gold was running, but it never had its real parabolic phase while Gold itself was going parabolic.
Gold is currently still in its macro cycle, in the parabolic phase.
Can we really expect Bitcoin to go parabolic while Gold is having one of its biggest parabolic moves ever?

So far, Bitcoin has often gone parabolic after Gold finishes its parabolic move.
2013:
It’s not a perfect example, since Bitcoin didn’t exist during Gold’s multi-year mega rally.
But Bitcoin’s first major cycle started after Gold topped and entered a multi-year correction.

So yes, it makes sense for Bitcoin and Gold to move together, as they share many similarities. If the world likes Gold for some reason, it’s logical that it might like Bitcoin too.
And yes, it doesn’t seem like they move together right now — because they don’t, at least not in the same way.
Historically, they do move within the same cycle, just not at the exact same time. They move within the same period, but with a delay.
It’s more like money flows into Gold first, and at some point starts spilling over into Bitcoin.
2021:
Once again, you can see they move within the same cycle structure, but Gold constantly front-runs Bitcoin.
When Gold printed a stage 3 bottom and moved into stage 4 (yellow), Bitcoin was still in a bear market —> stage 2.
When Gold started its rally from stage 4 toward the highs and the end of the cycle (stage 5), Bitcoin was only forming a stage 3 bottom (blue circle).
When Gold finally topped the cycle in a parabolic stage 5 move (purple), Bitcoin began its own stage 5 parabolic move.

Macro Bias – Recap:
1. Bitcoin's Cycle Structure
- The macro cycle is clearly still missing the parabolic part.
- It looks like Bitcoin is forming a mini-cycle within the bigger cycle.
Expectation:
The parabolic part to come after the mini-cycle resolves.
Plan:
Enter after stage 3 of the mini-cycle forms around one of the key macro range levels.
2. Stocks:
- Some major stocks have been forming a clear macro cycle structure.
- Bitcoin has followed a very similar cycle structure, but constantly lagging around 100–300 days behind.
- I’ve been tracking this relationship since 2023.
3. Gold
- Historically, Bitcoin does not perform well when Gold goes up hard, let alone when Gold goes parabolic.
- Gold is currently working on one of the biggest parabolic moves of our lifetime.
- In previous cycles, Bitcoin only went truly parabolic after Gold finished its move.
- Bitcoin has gone up while Gold was rising (for example, in 2019 from ~3k to ~13k), but while Gold kept pushing higher, Bitcoin formed a mini-cycle and retraced from 13k to 4k.
- After Gold finally topped its macro move, it was Bitcoin’s time to run —> from 4k to 68k (see charts above).
As you can see here, in the previous cycle, we could have caught this move by catching the mini-cycle breakout at the range lows.
But there was another chart where this rotation became visible early on: the Gold/BTC chart.
It all started after that chart reclaimed the range low and the mini-cycle began to play out, which eventually transitioned into a bigger cycle.
Currently, BTC/GOLD is at a similar spot, below the range low. Once again, nothing is confirmed until we actually reclaim it. As long as we're below it can go on for a long time or even fall deeper. But I'm keeping an eye out for a potential reclaim and trigger.

But also how BTC/USD looked in the previous cycle.
2. How to enter?
As mentioned before, this macro bias tells me how I want to position in the market, but not much about the short or medium time frames.
If we look at Bitcoin right now, we:
are still in a downtrend
broke below the macro range high, which now acts as resistance
have not formed a clear stage 3 of the mini-cycle yet, nor do we have a breakout
So the medium (and short) time frames are still about caution and patience for me.

Our bias was: - Mini-cycle → macro cycle continuation.
Our plan was: - Look for a mini-cycle stage 3 + breakout trigger around a macro range key level.
We have three key levels: the range high, mid-range, and range low.
These are the zones where I’ll be looking for a mini-cycle stage 3 base and an entry trigger.
- Scenario & option 1: the range high
We could range here for a while, take out the lows, etc. But that doesn’t really matter, because this isn’t a place where I want to take a position right now.
What I’d like to see is:
A nice base forming here (a potential mini-cycle stage 3)
A breakout back above the base and above the macro range high
A reclaim of the local range low we lost
In confluence with the trendline
These would be the entry triggers for me to start scaling back in.
The thesis also comes with a clear invalidation if we fall back below.

- Scenario & option 2: the mid-range
Maybe we fall deeper right away.
Maybe we fake out into the resistance above first.
Or maybe we even reclaim it, only to fail shortly after.

In that case, stage 2 (bear) of the mini-cycle likely isn’t finished yet, and we fall into the mid-range key level before forming a base somewhere there.
- Scenario & option 3: the range low

Well, if we don’t get a reclaim anywhere, or if it fails shortly after, we could in theory fall all the way back to the range low zone, or even briefly spike below it (who knows with this war).
In that case, we probably have a lot more time ahead of us and should just touch some more grass.
I don’t know, it doesn’t seem like the most likely scenario to me, but who am I....All I can do is prepare and act on whatever trigger I get.

Also, just like I don’t know which scenario we’ll get, I don’t know exactly how the path toward one of them will form.
I’ll be looking for the structure, which can develop in many different ways.
Maybe, if we move toward the range low or mid-range, we’ll first get some strange fake-out rallies toward the range high.
We watch, adapt, and update our plans as new information comes in.

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1. Mira veidojas ap problēmu, ko lielākā daļa AI lietotāju jau piedzīvo

Kamēr lielākā daļa blokķēdes diskusiju joprojām ir saistītas ar DeFi, tirdzniecības naratīviem vai slāņu skalēšanas debatēm, Fabric Foundation pieiet infrastruktūrai no cita virziena, būvējot sistēmu, kas paredzēta, lai koordinētu mijiedarbību starp mašīnām, pakalpojumiem un decentralizētām tīklam.
Šeit $ROBO loma kļūst daudz interesantāka nekā tipiskam kriptovalūtas žetonam.
Ja decentralizētā infrastruktūra galu galā atbalsta lielas mēroga robotikas sistēmas, automatizētus pakalpojumus vai mākslīgā intelekta vadītus aģentus, tīkla vide izskatīsies ļoti atšķirīga no šodienas lietotājiem orientētās blokķēdes darbības. Tā vietā, lai tūkstošiem cilvēku darījumu, tīkls varētu apstrādāt miljoniem automatizētu mijiedarbību katru minūti.