As expected, $XRP retraces towards $1.33. If a higher low is to form, this is where the reaction should be taking place. Failing such, $1.30 on the 0.786 is also a potential to mark a low before a bullish rebound.
⚡️ UPDATE: Six new wallets on Polymarket netted roughly $1 M by betting on a U.S. strike on Iran, raising insider trading concerns — as most of these accounts were created just hours before the attack and placed concentrated “yes” bets on Feb. 28, the exact date the strikes began.
On-chain analysts flagged the timing and profit pattern as suspicious, likening it to potential privileged information use though definitive proof of wrongdoing hasn’t been established.
The controversy adds to broader debates over prediction markets trading on geopolitical events and calls for regulatory scrutiny.
$BTC Bitcoin Enters High-Risk Expansion Zone as On-Chain Heat Builds
The Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index has climbed into the upper percentile band, historically aligned with late-stage expansion phases. In previous cycles, sustained positioning in this zone reflected tightening liquidity conditions and rising speculative intensity. The current move is firm but not parabolic, indicating elevated cyclical pressure developing under structured demand rather than disorderly acceleration.
Drawdown from the all-time high remains comparatively shallow versus prior macro tops at similar percentile levels. This divergence suggests distribution has not reached saturation. Volatility percentile is increasing, yet it remains below historical blow-off conditions, reinforcing the interpretation of expansion with overheating characteristics instead of terminal exhaustion. Higher-timeframe structure continues to hold, limiting evidence of aggressive macro exit flows.
Adjusted MVRV is approaching the upper bubble threshold, but the magnitude of deviation from realized value remains materially lower than in prior euphoric peaks. Realized profit-taking is present, though not extreme, implying orderly redistribution rather than forced supply release. Long-term holder positioning remains relatively stable, while short-term holder profitability has expanded without reaching destabilizing levels.
From a macro-liquidity standpoint, Bitcoin resilience amid restrictive global conditions reflects a structurally stronger capital base. The current alignment between Cycle Extremes compression and moderated MVRV expansion signals late-cycle heat, but not confirmed climax behavior. Confirmation of distribution would require accelerating realized profits, sustained percentile compression, and breakdown of higher-timeframe support. Until such confluence emerges, the data supports a high-risk expansion regime rather than a completed cycle top.
$XRP closed with a dragonfly doji candle and respected the $1.3000 Daily support. However, anything is possible due to geopolitics. Tomorrow is the Weekly transition. Above the $1.3820 resistance it can push higher if the breakout remains stable 😈