فلسطین

The crypto market is currently facing a structural challenge that goes beyond short-term price movements. According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, the present setup is being driven by a sharp increase in altcoin supply across the broader market while liquidity conditions remain constrained. This imbalance is mechanically diluting marginal capital flows, making it increasingly difficult for most altcoins to sustain rallies.
At the time of analysis, the total crypto market capitalization excluding #bitcoin stood near $943.46 billion, yet market breadth continues to deteriorate. Data from Binance shows that 83% of listed altcoins are trading below their 50-week moving average, a level widely regarded as a long-term trend filter. This indicates that weakness is not isolated to a few underperforming tokens but is spread across the entire altcoin market.
Darkfost highlighted that the situation briefly became even more extreme earlier this month. On February 7, more than 92% of Binance-listed altcoins were trading below the same 50-week threshold, marking a post-2023 cycle high in downside participation. This contrasts sharply with earlier bullish phases. In March 2024, only 6% of altcoins traded below the 50-week line, and in December 2024 the figure was just 7%. The current environment therefore represents a significant shift in market structure.

A major factor contributing to this weakness is Bitcoin’s unclear directional bias. Since peaking near $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has been in a broader downtrend and is currently hovering around the mid-$60,000 range, roughly 46% below its all-time high. When Bitcoin lacks a strong directional trend, higher-beta assets like altcoins tend to suffer from reduced capital allocation.
Macro conditions are further complicating the picture. Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the United States and Iran, combined with a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve in recent #FOMC‬⁩ minutes, have created a risk-averse environment. Such conditions are especially challenging for volatile assets, where liquidity sensitivity is high.
Darkfost emphasized why the 50-week moving average matters so much. It acts as a long-horizon separator between corrective phases and structurally constructive markets. When the majority of tokens remain below this level, rallies tend to be narrow, selection pressure increases, and broad “alt season” narratives struggle to gain traction without a decisive improvement in liquidity conditions.
In this regime, outperforming the market becomes less about broad beta exposure and more about understanding how market structure has changed. Capital is rotating selectively, favoring strong narratives, clear demand absorption, and coins showing relative strength rather than lifting the entire altcoin complex.
Until liquidity conditions improve and Bitcoin establishes a clearer trend, altcoin breadth may remain impaired. For traders and investors, this means discipline, selectivity, and structure awareness are more important than chasing broad market moves.

#altcoins #Binance
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