GEMINI

On February 25 at 18:00 UTC, the same pattern showed up again. Smoothed Net Realized P&L crossed $5M per hour as price climbed to $69.4K, but it stalled just below $70K. Profit taking near that level continues to cap upside, and in this thin liquidity environment even modest selling pressure is enough to block recovery attempts.

When you zoom out, the long term trend is still clearly positive. The main concern right now is the recent correction, which has pushed short term investors deep into losses. The 1 to 3 month holders have a realized price around $90,000, and with BTC trading near $68,000, they are down roughly 24% on average. Around this realized price, the deviation bands sit at $153,000 on the high end, $126,000 above, $79,000 below and $56,000 at the lower extreme.

These levels often act as reaction zones since this group tends to respond quickly to price moves. In this cycle, #BTC has frequently corrected after reaching the upper extreme band, and from current levels, price still needs to climb further for these short term holders to return to comfortable profits.

Yesterday, Net Taker Volume on the 25HMA jumped to $1.13B per hour, one of the strongest buy imbalances in months. This shows heavy aggressive market buying, meaning traders were actively lifting offers instead of waiting.

It signals strong bullish pressure and high conviction from buyers. If this continues, price can push higher. If it fades, we may see a short pause or pullback.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

LSI is now rolling over and trending lower, which shows that the immediate stress in the market is easing. This shift has created short term relief, allowing price to push upward after moving through the 63K stress zone. Even so, the MA24h remains above 56, signaling that background pressure is still present.

The surface may look stable for now, but the broader structure has not completely normalized. So while buyers have gained temporary control and upward continuation is possible, the overall environment still carries underlying risk...

Glassnode’s full history GEX heatmap now highlights a build up of negative gamma around and below the current spot price, while the positive gamma barriers above are becoming thinner.

Because #BTC is trading in a short gamma zone, dealer hedging flows can increase volatility. Instead of absorbing price moves, hedging activity may add pressure in the same direction, making both upward and downward moves more aggressive.

#Bitcoin’s MVRVは冷却され、現在は長期平均に近い取引を行っており、前回の+1標準偏差の極端な値は完全にリセットされています。評価は歴史的により良いリスク対報酬の機会を提供してきたレベルに向かっていますが、市場はまだ主要なサイクルの底近くで通常見られる深く過小評価されたゾーンには入っていません。

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Mining difficulty didn’t stay low for long. After winter storms temporarily shut down several operations and caused a brief dip, the network has already recalibrated. As miners brought their machines back online and hash rate recovered, the latest adjustment pushed difficulty right back up.

It’s a clear example of how responsive the #Bitcoin network is. External disruptions may slow things down for a moment, but the system quickly adapts and restores balance, keeping block times steady and the chain moving forward.

Market conditions have shifted as the 90D SMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio moves below 1. This indicates that loss realization is now dominating over profit taking, which typically reflects weaker sentiment and tighter liquidity. In past cycles, the ratio has remained below 1 for several months before recovering. A sustained move back above this level would signal improving confidence and a healthier flow of capital into the market.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

銀行間のオーバーナイト借入コストは、フェデラルファンド金利が低下するにつれて緩和されています。この変化は通常、政策立案者がより緩やかな金融条件に向かっていることを示しています。資金が安価になると、システム全体の流動性が改善される傾向があります。流動性の増加は、ビットコインやその他のリスク主導の市場を含む資本フローに強く反応する資産にしばしば利益をもたらします。

A familiar pattern is forming as the #Binance Buying Power Index returns to previous low levels. This typically signals a temporary cooldown rather than a breakdown, showing that the market is pausing, liquidity is tightening, and aggressive buying has slowed. In past cycles, similar compressions have often been followed by upward moves once demand picks up again, making this setup historically lean more bullish than bearish.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

On February 6, the 7D EMA of Net Realized Profit and Loss hit -$1.24B per day, reflecting heavy realized losses from recent investors. It has since recovered to -$0.48B per day, suggesting that the pace of selling has eased. Even so, the market remains under pressure, with many participants still closing positions at a loss as the base formation phase continues.

#Ethereum is facing pressure in an already weak market environment, and recent data shows signs that whales are stepping back. The average #ETH order size on #Binance has been steadily decreasing since the start of the year, which suggests that large investors are reducing their activity.

This decline means big players may be cutting exposure or waiting for clearer market direction. With fewer large orders in the books, the market can become more sensitive to volatility and sudden price moves.

Retail inflows have dropped to a 9 year low. The average monthly #Bitcoin sent to Binance from retail investors is now around 384 BTC, the lowest level since 2017. For comparison, in January 2021, retail investors were sending nearly 2,700 #BTC per month. This shows retail participation is currently very weak compared to the last bull cycle.

年初めに、機関投資家の#Bitcoinに対する見通しは明らかに弱気でした。#BTC が$60,000を超えたとき、Coinbaseプレミアムギャップは-$96に落ち込み、プロの投資家からの需要が弱いことを示しました。一方、スポットBitcoin ETFのネットフローは平均-$210Mで、強い資本流出を反映しています。この売り圧力の合算は市場に大きな重しとなりました。

しかし、状況は改善しています。#coinbase プレミアムギャップは-$23.8に狭まり、売り圧力が緩和されていることを示しています。また、#ETF のネットフローは-$19Mに回復し、流出が大幅に鈍化したことを意味します。両方の指標はまだわずかにネガティブですが、方向性は変わりました。もしポジティブに転じれば、Bitcoinに対する強いサポートを提供し、市場全体の状況を改善する可能性があります。

Still Extreme Fear 👀

From December 13 onward, the #Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has remained below zero, except on January 5 and January 14.