GEMINI

Short term holders were under heavy pressure when their average losses crossed 10 percent, which in this cycle usually marked a capitulation phase and the formation of a bottom. That phase now seems to be ending. STHs are still holding losses, but the pressure has eased, with the average loss around 6.4 percent, based on the gap between the current BTC price and the STH cost basis.

This matters because unrealized profit is not a negative signal, especially for short term holders. It is psychologically much easier to hold profits than losses. That said, this only applies up to a point. When unrealized profits grow too large, they often lead to selling and distribution. From here, the key thing to watch is how the market behaves as price moves closer to the STH cost basis.

Profit realization by long term holders has slowed significantly, with net profits now averaging around 12.8K #BTC per week. This is a sharp contrast to previous cycle tops, where weekly figures climbed above 100K BTC.

Selling activity remains present but at a much softer pace than in earlier distribution phases. This lower level of profit taking suggests reduced exit pressure from long term participants, reflecting a more restrained and patient market environment.

#Bitcoin is approaching the Short Term Holder Whale Realized Price from underneath. This area is closely watched by the market, as a breakout above it may indicate strengthening demand and renewed buying interest from larger short term holders. Failure to break through, on the other hand, could lead to hesitation in price action and a brief cooling phase.

🔥 So far, 2026 has added $260B to the total crypto Market Cap.

🔥 ENORME: #Silver flipped #NVIDIA per diventare il secondo attivo più grande per Capitalizzazione di Mercato.

2.6X più grande di #BTC

#Bitcoin entered 2025 with historically low price volatility, a shift highlighted by ARK Invest as a key sign of market maturity. Reduced price fluctuations suggest a more stable trading environment, which could improve risk adjusted returns over time and strengthen Bitcoin’s position as a viable long term asset for investors.

Ancora Neutro 👀

The market is reaching an important turning point for #BTC. If price can reclaim the Short Term Holder cost basis, it would mean recent buyers are back in profit, a condition that often supports renewed upside strength and broader participation.

This tends to improve overall market confidence. Failure to reclaim this level would suggest the recovery remains weak, keeping BTC in a consolidation or recovery phase rather than a strong continuation.

Negli ultimi 24 ore, il mercato delle criptovalute ha visto pesanti liquidazioni poiché 105.945 trader sono stati costretti ad abbandonare le loro posizioni, per un totale di 219,06 milioni di dollari di perdite.
Il colpo più duro è arrivato da Hyperliquid, dove un singolo #BTCUSD trade del valore di 5,10 milioni di dollari è stato liquidato ❗️

Market activity shows strong time based pressure. Even after #Bitcoin rebounded from the November 22 low to around $92.7k, realized losses kept rising. The 30 day #SMA of Entity Adjusted Realized Loss reached about $555M per day, the highest since the FTX collapse. This means losses are being realized during strength. Top buyers are exiting on rebounds instead of holding, showing frustration and reduced conviction.

Selling pressure from Long Term Holders continues to ease, even though overall LTH supply is still trending lower. The sharp distribution seen in Q3-Q4 2025 has clearly cooled, signaling a slowdown in long term selling.

For a sustainable upside move, the market needs LTH supply to turn positive again. That shift occurs when maturation supply overtakes LTH spending, a structure last seen in Aug 2022-Sep 2023 and Mar 2024-Jul 2025, both of which led to stronger, more durable recoveries.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has shifted from greed to neutral 👀

#Bitcoin is trading around $97K and on chain models are starting to adjust. The Short Term Holder Cost Basis sits at $98.4K, showing recent buyers are slightly underwater, making this a key short term level. Active Investors Mean at $87.8K confirms most active participants are still in profit.

The True Market Mean at $81.1K marks a strong underlying support zone. Realized Price at $56.2K highlights continued long term holder strength. Overall, price is facing short term pressure while the broader structure remains strong.

A strong increase in first time participants is becoming visible across #Ethereum’s on chain data. Month over month activity retention shows a clear rise in the “New” cohort, meaning a growing number of wallets are interacting with the network for the first time over the past 30 days.

Recent activity is not simply existing users becoming more active but a fresh inflow of new participants entering the ecosystem. If these wallets remain engaged beyond initial transactions, it could support stronger network effects and more durable growth. For now, retention will be the key metric to confirm whether this influx represents lasting adoption or short term interest.

Despite Ethereum outperforming #Bitcoin since the January lows, on chain data shows a clear difference in holder confidence. ETH is up 18.6 percent compared to BTC’s 13.3 percent gain, yet Ethereum’s SOPR remains below 1 at 0.992, meaning aggregated losses realized are still outweighing profits. Many ETH holders are using the rally as a chance to exit and reduce risk rather than commit to trend continuation.

Bitcoin tells the opposite story. With SOPR at 1.009 near the 97K level, BTC holders are comfortably realizing profits, a behavior typically associated with stronger conviction and healthier market structure. The contrast highlights BTC as the higher confidence trend, while #ETH still needs sustained demand and a SOPR flip above 1 to confirm that sentiment is truly shifting.

In the past six months, corporate #Bitcoin treasuries held by both public and private companies have expanded from roughly 854,000 BTC to about 1.11 million BTC. This net increase of nearly 260,000 BTC translates to an average monthly accumulation of around 43,000 BTC.

The data points to a consistent inflow of corporate capital into Bitcoin, signaling stronger balance sheet integration and long term conviction. Rather than reacting to short term price movements, companies appear to be positioning Bitcoin as a structural asset within their financial strategy.

L'indice della paura e dell'avidità #Bitcoin si è spostato da neutro a avidità 👀

Oro: 4644$
Argento: 91,67$

Ciò che stai vedendo non è solo un superciclo delle materie prime... è un collasso completo della valuta.

E per chi pensa che questo sia positivo?

HAI TORTO.

L'ultima volta che è successo, gli indici azionari sono calati del 58%.

Ecco perché sono preoccupato:

Il dollaro sta perdendo valore proprio davanti ai tuoi occhi.

Il mercato obbligazionario ha finalmente smascherato la presunzione del Tesoro.

Nessuno crede più che gli Stati Uniti possano ripagare il debito di 40 trilioni di dollari in termini reali.

Per 40 anni, i titoli del Tesoro sono stati privi di rischio.

Ma ora... SONO IL RISCHIO.

I grandi operatori stanno vendendo i titoli con decisione, forzando un riassetto di tutto il sistema.

Non stanno comprando metalli per fare soldi...

L'OBIETTIVO È USCIRE.

Ecco come funziona:

Vendita dei titoli, aumento dei rendimenti, costringendo la Fed a stampare denaro in fretta per acquistare i propri titoli (Controllo della curva dei rendimenti).

Le azioni salgono vertiginosamente, ma è solo inflazione.

Paghi tasse sui "guadagni" che non hanno alcun valore.

Il mercato immobiliare si blocca, i prezzi rimangono alti sulla carta, ma nessuno può permettersi un mutuo. La liquidità scompare completamente.

Una volta che cambia la psicologia, la velocità del denaro esplode.

La gente butterà immediatamente gli stipendi per qualsiasi cosa di materiale, come metalli.

DEVI OSSERVARE I FLUSSI.

L'azione recente dei prezzi tra 80.000$ e 95.000$ riflette una fase di consolidamento prolungata, influenzata dalla posizione dei detentori a breve termine. I dati della mappa termica della distribuzione del costo dei detentori a breve termine mostrano una forte concentrazione del costo vicino ai livelli attuali, creando un'offerta persistente sopra il prezzo. I tentativi di rialzo si sono ripetutamente arenati poiché i nuovi acquirenti vendono in fase di rialzo, mantenendo il prezzo bloccato nonostante diversi tentativi di recupero.

Tuttavia, la domanda al di sopra dei 80.000$ è rimasta resiliente dopo il calo, fornendo un solido supporto e limitando il rischio di ulteriore discesa. Questa dinamica ha portato il prezzo a rimanere strettamente ancorato nell'intervallo. Un movimento deciso dipenderà dal fatto che la domanda possa assorbire completamente l'offerta residua o se i venditori riprenderanno il controllo e forzeranno un crollo.

Il recente movimento tra le prime 500 criptovalute ha causato il più grande crollo di posizioni short visto da ottobre 10. L'espansione rapida dei prezzi ha eliminato un gran numero di posizioni short, amplificando la volatilità e spingendo il mercato verso l'alto mentre i trader si affrettavano a coprire le loro posizioni. Questo tipo di evento riflette di solito una posizionamento aggressivo e un'incertezza aumentata sul mercato.