GEMINI
I'm just an immature trader and a crypto lover 👋
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The #Bitcoin Bull Score Index has risen to 30, marking its strongest level since late October. As a result, the market condition has shifted from “extremely bearish” to simply “bearish." A few important bullish signals have started to appear. Exchange flows are improving, stablecoin liquidity is expanding, and price action is showing stronger movement. These factors usually indicate that capital is slowly coming back into the market.
That said, the overall market trend has not fully turned bullish yet. #Bitcoin is still moving within a broader bear market structure, but the current price movement looks like a short term recovery rally rather than a full trend reversal. If these positive signals continue and buying pressure grows, the market could gradually move toward a more balanced phase. Until then, the rally should be viewed as temporary strength within a still-cautious market environment.
That said, the overall market trend has not fully turned bullish yet. #Bitcoin is still moving within a broader bear market structure, but the current price movement looks like a short term recovery rally rather than a full trend reversal. If these positive signals continue and buying pressure grows, the market could gradually move toward a more balanced phase. Until then, the rally should be viewed as temporary strength within a still-cautious market environment.
Dalla fine di gennaio, l'attività di trading spot tra le prime 500 criptovalute è stata in costante declino. Allo stesso tempo, #Bitcoin si è mosso nella direzione opposta, con il suo volume di scambi che è rimasto relativamente forte e persino in aumento per la maggior parte di febbraio.
Questo contrasto evidenzia un cambiamento nel comportamento del mercato. Mentre l'interesse per il trading in molte altcoin è diminuito, Bitcoin continua ad attrarre liquidità e attenzione da parte dei trader. Suggerisce che gli investitori potrebbero stare consolidando il loro capitale in Bitcoin, spesso visto come l'asset più stabile e affidabile nel mercato delle criptovalute durante periodi di incertezza.
Questo contrasto evidenzia un cambiamento nel comportamento del mercato. Mentre l'interesse per il trading in molte altcoin è diminuito, Bitcoin continua ad attrarre liquidità e attenzione da parte dei trader. Suggerisce che gli investitori potrebbero stare consolidando il loro capitale in Bitcoin, spesso visto come l'asset più stabile e affidabile nel mercato delle criptovalute durante periodi di incertezza.
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Still Extreme Fear 👀
Dal 21 febbraio, la SMA a 90 giorni del rapporto profitto/perdita realizzato è rimasta al di sotto del livello neutro di 1, indicando che gli investitori stanno collettivamente realizzando più perdite che profitti durante questo periodo. Nei cicli di mercato passati, una volta che questo indicatore scende al di sotto di 1, raramente si riprende immediatamente. Invece, spesso rimane al di sotto di questo livello per sei mesi o più prima di riconquistarla finalmente.
Questo tipo di tendenza di solito segnala un ambiente di mercato più debole, dove il sentimento è cauto e molti partecipanti scelgono di uscire dalle posizioni anche in perdita. Periodi come questi appaiono spesso durante correzioni prolungate o fasi di consolidamento, prima che le condizioni migliorino gradualmente e il mercato si sposti nuovamente verso una maggiore redditività.
Questo tipo di tendenza di solito segnala un ambiente di mercato più debole, dove il sentimento è cauto e molti partecipanti scelgono di uscire dalle posizioni anche in perdita. Periodi come questi appaiono spesso durante correzioni prolungate o fasi di consolidamento, prima che le condizioni migliorino gradualmente e il mercato si sposti nuovamente verso una maggiore redditività.
Nelle ultime 24 ore, il mercato delle criptovalute ha vissuto un'ondata di liquidazioni, con 98.116 trader che hanno perso le loro posizioni con leva. In totale, le liquidazioni nel mercato hanno raggiunto $203,95 milioni.
La più grande singola liquidazione si è verificata su Bybit, dove una posizione #BTCUSDT del valore di $1,98 milioni è stata annullata in un solo ordine.
La più grande singola liquidazione si è verificata su Bybit, dove una posizione #BTCUSDT del valore di $1,98 milioni è stata annullata in un solo ordine.
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Over the past few months of consolidation, some short term holders seem to have increased their exposure. This is reflected in the STH SOPR, which has been gradually rising since February. The 1 month average moved from 0.977 to 0.987, these investors are now realizing fewer losses when they spend their coins. SOPR basically shows whether coins are sold at profit or loss by comparing the selling price with the buying price.
Recently, the indicator has been trying to move back above the 1.0 level, which is considered the neutral point. However, since October it has mostly stayed below this level, meaning many holders were selling at a loss, something commonly seen in bear market conditions. For the market to turn more positive, short term holders need to start taking profits again. When investors begin realizing profits, confidence usually returns and people are more willing to hold their positions expecting higher prices ahead.
Recently, the indicator has been trying to move back above the 1.0 level, which is considered the neutral point. However, since October it has mostly stayed below this level, meaning many holders were selling at a loss, something commonly seen in bear market conditions. For the market to turn more positive, short term holders need to start taking profits again. When investors begin realizing profits, confidence usually returns and people are more willing to hold their positions expecting higher prices ahead.
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The amount of circulating supply currently in loss is increasing again, signaling that more investors are holding their assets below their purchase price. This often reflects growing pressure in the market and a shift toward more cautious sentiment among participants. When we compare this situation with past market cycles, similar patterns have usually appeared during the early stages of a bearish period rather than at the final market bottom.
That means the market could still be in the process of adjusting before reaching a true recovery phase. As the share of supply in loss grows, uncertainty and volatility often rise as well. Some investors may begin to exit their positions, while others take a step back to observe the market more carefully. At the same time, these conditions can slowly set the stage for the market to stabilize and rebuild strength over time.
That means the market could still be in the process of adjusting before reaching a true recovery phase. As the share of supply in loss grows, uncertainty and volatility often rise as well. Some investors may begin to exit their positions, while others take a step back to observe the market more carefully. At the same time, these conditions can slowly set the stage for the market to stabilize and rebuild strength over time.
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Some altcoins are beginning to show signs of recovery even though the overall crypto market is still facing uncertainty. The Total3 index, which tracks the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Ethereum, is currently ranging between $640B and $740B and has gained about 11% since early February. #XRP is currently showing a few encouraging signals.
Withdrawals from #Binance have recently spiked, including more than 14,000 transactions on March 6, which could indicate that some investors are accumulating XRP and moving it to private wallets instead of leaving it on exchanges. At the same time, interest in #XRP ETFs continues to grow, with total inflows already exceeding $1.4B. Reports also say that Goldman Sachs holds over 83 million XRP, showing that institutional interest in the asset is gradually increasing. If this trend continues, XRP could attract more liquidity within the altcoin market...
Withdrawals from #Binance have recently spiked, including more than 14,000 transactions on March 6, which could indicate that some investors are accumulating XRP and moving it to private wallets instead of leaving it on exchanges. At the same time, interest in #XRP ETFs continues to grow, with total inflows already exceeding $1.4B. Reports also say that Goldman Sachs holds over 83 million XRP, showing that institutional interest in the asset is gradually increasing. If this trend continues, XRP could attract more liquidity within the altcoin market...
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Market losses are starting to ease after the recent capitulation. #Bitcoin is still seeing more realized losses than profits, with about $611M in losses compared to $346M in profits, leaving the weekly net PnL around -$264M. This is an improvement compared to early February when weekly losses were close to $2B as #BTC fell below $60K.
Short Term Holders remain the most active participants and now control about 22% of the Bitcoin supply, up from 12% in January 2023. If the net PnL turns positive again, it could be a strong sign that the market is recovering after several months of losses.
Short Term Holders remain the most active participants and now control about 22% of the Bitcoin supply, up from 12% in January 2023. If the net PnL turns positive again, it could be a strong sign that the market is recovering after several months of losses.
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Rising global tensions, particularly between #Iran and the #united States, are creating uncertainty in financial markets and making investors more cautious about taking risks. As a result, traders are reducing their use of leverage. #Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has fallen from 0.198 to 0.152 since February, while the price of Bitcoin dropped from about $96,000 to $69,000 during the same period.
Many leveraged positions were closed or liquidated, leading to a decline in Open Interest. This decrease in leverage can help the market become more stable and form a healthier base before the next major price movement.
Many leveraged positions were closed or liquidated, leading to a decline in Open Interest. This decrease in leverage can help the market become more stable and form a healthier base before the next major price movement.
Circa 20 milioni #Bitcoin sono stati estratti. Raggiungere questo punto ha richiesto 6.267 giorni. I rimanenti 1 milione di monete saranno rilasciati lentamente nei prossimi 114 anni.
Ecco uno sguardo a quanto tempo ci è voluto per Bitcoin per raggiungere le sue precedenti tappe di fornitura sulla blockchain lungo il percorso verso 20 milioni 👇
Ecco uno sguardo a quanto tempo ci è voluto per Bitcoin per raggiungere le sue precedenti tappe di fornitura sulla blockchain lungo il percorso verso 20 milioni 👇
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Still Extreme Fear 👀
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#Bitcoin is currently in the middle phase of the market cycle, with the NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite sitting around 0.33. In previous cycles, major market bottoms usually formed when this indicator dropped close to -0.5.
The chart also suggests that cycle lows are gradually shifting higher over time, which indicates that market capitulation may be becoming less severe as Bitcoin matures. However, since the indicator is still well above the historical bottom zone, a full market capitulation has not been confirmed yet.
The chart also suggests that cycle lows are gradually shifting higher over time, which indicates that market capitulation may be becoming less severe as Bitcoin matures. However, since the indicator is still well above the historical bottom zone, a full market capitulation has not been confirmed yet.
Il livello di $75K si distingue perché circa $2.1B di gamma negativo è concentrato lì, con quasi $1.8B collegati alla scadenza delle opzioni di marzo. Nei periodi di gamma negativo, la copertura dei dealer può intensificare i movimenti di mercato e spesso spinge l'azione dei prezzi verso grandi strike di opzioni, il che potrebbe far comportare $75K come un livello magnetico per il prezzo spot.
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