M-Farhad

Where Are We Now in the Market Cycle?
Bitcoin has always moved in cycles, and understanding these cycles is one of the most important skills for long-term investors and traders. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin follows a relatively predictable pattern driven by halving events, liquidity conditions, market psychology, and adoption trends. As we move through the current market phase, many investors are asking the same question: Where are we now in the Bitcoin cycle?
Understanding the Bitcoin Market Cycle
A typical Bitcoin cycle consists of four main phases:
Accumulation Phase
This phase occurs after a major market crash. Prices move sideways for months, volatility is low, and sentiment is extremely bearish. Smart money and long-term investors quietly accumulate Bitcoin while public interest remains minimal.Markup Phase (Bull Market)
Once accumulation is complete, Bitcoin begins a strong upward trend. Prices make higher highs, media attention increases, and retail investors slowly return. This phase often accelerates after a Bitcoin halving event, when new supply entering the market is reduced.Distribution Phase
After a parabolic rise, Bitcoin starts to move sideways at high price levels. Early investors and institutions begin taking profits, while late retail buyers enter the market driven by hype and fear of missing out (FOMO).Markdown Phase (Bear Market)
Selling pressure increases, prices fall sharply, and panic spreads across the market. Weak hands exit, leverage is flushed out, and the cycle resets.
Current Bitcoin Cycle Update
At the current stage, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning between the late accumulation and early markup phase, depending on broader economic conditions. Several key indicators support this view:
Post-halving dynamics: Historically, major bull runs begin months after a halving, not immediately. Supply shock effects take time to reflect in price.On-chain data: Long-term holders continue to accumulate, while exchange reserves remain relatively low, suggesting reduced selling pressure.Institutional interest: Spot Bitcoin ETFs and increasing institutional participation have added structural demand, changing the scale of this cycle compared to previous ones.Macro environment: Interest rate expectations, inflation trends, and global liquidity are playing a larger role than ever before in Bitcoin price action.What Makes This Cycle Different?
This Bitcoin cycle is unique for several reasons:
Institutional adoption is stronger than in previous cycles.Regulatory clarity is slowly improving in major economies.Retail investors are more cautious, shaped by past bull and bear markets.Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a macro asset, reacting to global financial conditions rather than pure speculation alone.
Because of these factors, price movements may be slower, more structured, and less explosive in the early stages—but potentially more sustainable over the long term.
Risks to Watch
Despite the optimistic outlook, risks remain:
Unexpected regulatory crackdownsGlobal economic recessionsSharp liquidity tighteningExcessive leverage in derivatives markets
Bitcoin cycles are never perfectly smooth, and deep pullbacks are normal even during bull markets.
Conclusion
Bitcoin continues to follow its historical cycle framework, but with new players and stronger fundamentals shaping the current market. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the broader cycle suggests Bitcoin is still in a growth phase rather than at a market top.
For long-term investors, understanding the cycle helps remove emotional decision-making and encourages strategic accumulation and risk management. As always, patience remains one of the most valuable assets in the Bitcoin market.

C'era una volta, nel gigantesco portafoglio digitale chiamato Blockville, un famoso coin di nome Bitcoin. Tutti lo chiamavano BTC, ma segretamente… preferiva Sir Bit-a-Lot.
BTC aveva un serio problema.
Era sempre assetato.
Non assetato d'acqua.
Non assetato di soda.
BTC era assetato di una sola cosa:
Liquidità.
Ogni mattina si svegliava, allungava i suoi bordi lucenti e gridava attraverso la blockchain:
“L'ACQUA È TEMPORANEA, LA LIQUIDITÀ È PER SEMPRE!!”
Ethereum rollava gli occhi.
“Fratello, hai letteralmente un pool da $trilione. Rilassati.”

Il valore totale del mercato delle criptovalute è sceso del 3,24% a $2,57 trilioni, cancellando quasi $50 miliardi in poche ore. La vendita si è accelerata dopo l'apertura del mercato statunitense, quando Bitcoin è improvvisamente sceso di circa $1.700.
Le liquidazioni aggiungono carburante al calo
Il forte movimento ha innescato pesanti liquidazioni.
Oltre $55 milioni in posizioni long sono state liquidate in sole due ore
I trader che scommettevano su prezzi più alti sono stati costretti ad uscire, spingendo i prezzi ancora più in basso
Ciò è accaduto nonostante notizie positive riguardo alla chiusura del governo statunitense, dimostrando che il sentiment di mercato rimane fragile.

Bitcoin (BTC) is known for its high volatility. Sharp price drops often worry investors, especially those who are new to crypto markets. However, BTC price declines usually happen due to a combination of economic, technical, and psychological factors, not just a single reason. Below is a comprehensive explanation of why Bitcoin may be falling.
Macroeconomic Pressure and Global Economy
Bitcoin does not move in isolation. When the global economy faces uncertainty—such as high inflation, rising interest rates, or economic slowdown—investors reduce risk.
Central banks (like the US Federal Reserve) raising interest rates make cash and bonds more attractiveInvestors pull money out of risky assets, including crypto and tech stocksBTC often falls alongside Nasdaq and S&P 500 during such periods
When money becomes expensive, speculation decreases.
Strong US Dollar (DXY Impact)
Bitcoin is negatively correlated with the US Dollar Index (DXY).
When the dollar strengthens, BTC usually weakensGlobal investors prefer holding USD during uncertain timesBTC, priced against USD, faces selling pressure
Market Fear, Panic Selling & Sentiment
Crypto markets are emotion-driven.
Bad news spreads quickly on social mediaRetail investors panic and sell at a lossFear & Greed Index moving toward “Fear” causes more downside
Panic selling accelerates price drops more than fundamentals.
Whale Activity and Institutional Selling
Large holders (“whales”) significantly impact BTC price.
Whales may sell BTC to take profitsInstitutions rebalance portfolios during uncertaintyLarge sell orders break key support levels
Once support breaks, stop-loss orders trigger, pushing price further down.
Technical Breakdown and Chart Patterns
Bitcoin traders rely heavily on technical analysis.
Common bearish signals include:
Break below 200-day moving averageLower highs and lower lowsBreakdown of key support zonesRSI staying weak (below 50)
When technical levels fail, traders open short positions, increasing downward momentum.
Over-Leverage and Liquidations
Many traders use high leverage in futures trading.
When price drops, long positions get liquidatedLiquidations cause forced sellingThis creates a chain reaction known as a liquidation cascade
This is why BTC sometimes drops sharply within minutes.
Regulatory Uncertainty
Government actions heavily influence crypto.
New regulations, bans, or stricter KYC rulesDelays or rejection of Bitcoin ETFsCrackdowns on exchanges or stablecoins
Even rumors of regulation can cause market sell-offs.
Mining Pressure
Bitcoin miners must sell BTC to:
Pay electricity costsUpgrade mining equipmentStay profitable during price drops
When mining difficulty rises and price falls, miners sell more BTC, increasing supply.
Lack of Fresh Capital
Bull markets need new money.
If new investors stop enteringTrading volume decreasesPrice struggles to move upward
Without demand, even small selling can push BTC lower.
Normal Market Cycles
Bitcoin moves in cycles:
Accumulation → Bull run → Distribution → CorrectionCorrections of 20–40% are normal, even in bull marketsLong-term uptrend remains intact despite short-term drops
History shows BTC has survived multiple crashes and recovered stronger.
Is This the End of Bitcoin?
No. Bitcoin has faced:
80% crashesExchange collapsesGovernment bansMedia declaring it “dead” hundreds of times
Yet it continues to survive due to:
Fixed supply (21 million)Growing adoptionInstitutional interestDecentralized nature
Should You Buy or Wait?
This depends on your strategy:
Long-term investors often see dips as opportunities (DCA strategy)Short-term traders should wait for confirmation and trend reversalAvoid emotional decisions and over-leverage
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is going down mainly due to macro pressure, fear, technical breakdowns, and liquidity issues, not because it has failed. Volatility is part of the crypto market. Smart investors focus on risk management, patience, and long-term vision.
“Bitcoin doesn’t die — weak hands do.”

A partire da gennaio 2026, XAGUSD (Argento Spot vs. Dollaro USA) è emerso come un asset di punta, ad alta volatilità e ad alte prestazioni nei mercati finanziari, con prezzi che raggiungono massimi storici e senza precedenti oltre $90–$100 per oncia. Rinominato per il suo duplice ruolo come asset rifugio e materiale industriale critico, l'argento ha vissuto un'enorme impennata parabolica, alimentata sia dalla domanda di rifugio sicuro in mezzo a tensioni geopolitiche sia da squilibri tra domanda e offerta.
Performance da Record: A gennaio 2026, l'argento è salito oltre $90, con alcuni record che mostrano i prezzi spot toccare o superare $93–$100, un significativo balzo rispetto agli anni precedenti.