Empty-Hand-Mate

## Con i paesaggi macro globali che oscillano in modo aggressivo, i mercati di Finanza Tradizionale (TradFi) stanno offrendo ai trader attivi una vera e propria lezione magistrale sulla volatilità. Le rally paraboliche di diversi mesi che abbiamo visto all'inizio di quest'anno stanno affrontando dure verifiche della realtà. Tra aspettative sui tassi di interesse modificate e un forte rumore geopolitico, le velas stanno raccontando una storia molto specifica.
Se stai cercando di fare hedge o tradare questi spostamenti macro direttamente su Binance, l'integrazione dei proxy TradFi tramite Binance Futures ci permette di sfruttare questi enormi pivot strutturali senza problemi. Analizziamo il layout macro per le azioni statunitensi, i metalli preziosi e l'energia.

I titoli stanno urlando di un Black Friday da record, con gli americani che spendono un stimato $11.8 miliardi esclusivamente online. Mentre i media mainstream usano questo per affermare che il sentiment dei consumatori è in crescita, la realtà sotto il cofano rivela un'economia profondamente frammentata e "bifronte".
La verità? Il boom economico è altamente concentrato:
*I Top 10%:** I consumatori benestanti stanno guidando l'impennata, rappresentando quasi la metà (48%) di tutte le vendite e-commerce all'inizio di quest'anno.
*La Classe Media e Bassa Schiacciata:** Per il resto dell'America, il sentiment è al suo minimo dal 2022. I costi alle stelle per beni di base (cibo, utenze, assicurazioni) insieme a redditi reali in calo hanno lasciato le famiglie a basso reddito con la sensazione di essere in una recessione letterale.

Headlines show that Black Friday sales shattered all previous records with an estimated $11.8 billion spent online by American consumers during the one-day event.
Boring Biz writes:
“Headline numbers would make you believe that people are doing better than ever before, but
BNPL services saw a 9% increase this Black Friday
41% of shoppers aged 16 to 24 used BNPL
Younger millennials increased BNPL usage by 87% vs last year
38% of households earning above $100K used BNPL
25% of BNPL users now use it to finance groceries
That’s the story here. People are relying on financing for consumer purchases, more than ever before.”
Ok, that is not good. But maybe there is a glimmer of relief from an otherwise negative story. Buy Now, Pay Later was only 6% of total sales on Black Friday, so it is not a national crisis by any means, but it is something we must continue watching.
The broader story at the moment is that regardless of sentiment, the current administration’s economic policies are creating a very positive impact on the US economy.
Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen writes:
“The economy is booming right now. Atlanta Fed projects GDP near 4% for the third quarter, following 3.9% growth in Q2. The economy isn’t working for everyone, but it’s still growing fast and remains historically productive.”
Remember, economists were predicting economic collapse back in April due to tariffs, but now GDP growth projections are at 4%. Life comes at you fast and most of the doomsday predictors look ridiculous in hindsight.
This GDP boom is carrying into the stock market too. Warren Pies says:
“S&P 500 - 6,750 (and rising)
10-year yield - sub-4% (and falling)
Oil breaking down
Gold holding above $4k ”
Warren isn’t alone in his enthusiasm either. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick is predicting a Christmas rally. He writes:
“S&P 500 was up more than 10% YTD heading into the last two months. November was just flat. The last two months have been up the past 16 times it was up 10% YTD heading into it. Still think Santa Claus comes to town in December.”
So Black Friday was a resounding success. All eyes now turn towards the Cyber Monday reports, while the stock market and GDP continue surging higher.
The tale of two experiences is not going away unfortunately.
We just have to hope people start understanding they can only win if they own assets and chill.
her record there as well.
This new record is noteworthy because it debunks all the media reports about low consumer sentiment in the economy.
The surveys are saying one thing, but the verifiable data at checkout registers is saying something else.
So what is going on here?
Well, this may not be a popular answer, but both groups are actually right. Wealthy citizens are doing well and they went out in full force to purchase discounted products.
This has been going on all year. In fact, almost half (48%) of all e-commerce sales in Q2 of this year came from the top 10% of people on the socioeconomic ladder.
At the same time these rich people are gobbling up the coolest clothes and electronics, Navy Federal’s Heather Long points out:
“Americans are frustrated with the economy -- and the outlook for 2026. Every consumer sentiment gauge is saying the same thing: Sentiment is down to the worst levels since April (or since inflation summer of 2022).
Why?
Because the middle class is feeling squeezed. (And lower-income households are basically in a recession)
1) It’s hard to get a job (unless you work in healthcare)
2) The cost of living is up, especially the basics of food, utilities, healthcare, insurance and auto repair.
3) Real incomes are trending down as inflation rises and pay gains are getting stingier.”
But there was something even more interesting about the Black Friday data that can’t be ignored. Lower income consumers are using financing to purchase goods at an unprecedented rate, which means people outside the top 10% are still trying to consume…they just are doing it with credit.
Boring Biz writes:
“Headline numbers would make you believe that people are doing better than ever before, but
BNPL services saw a 9% increase this Black Friday
41% of shoppers aged 16 to 24 used BNPL
Younger millennials increased BNPL usage by 87% vs last year
38% of households earning above $100K used BNPL
25% of BNPL users now use it to finance groceries
That’s the story here. People are relying on financing for consumer purchases, more than ever before.”
Ok, that is not good. But maybe there is a glimmer of relief from an otherwise negative story. Buy Now, Pay Later was only 6% of total sales on Black Friday, so it is not a national crisis by any means, but it is something we must continue watching.
The broader story at the moment is that regardless of sentiment, the current administration’s economic policies are creating a very positive impact on the US economy.
Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen writes:
“The economy is booming right now. Atlanta Fed projects GDP near 4% for the third quarter, following 3.9% growth in Q2. The economy isn’t working for everyone, but it’s still growing fast and remains historically productive.”
Remember, economists were predicting economic collapse back in April due to tariffs, but now GDP growth projections are at 4%. Life comes at you fast and most of the doomsday predictors look ridiculous in hindsight.
This GDP boom is carrying into the stock market too. Warren Pies says:
“S&P 500 - 6,750 (and rising)
10-year yield - sub-4% (and falling)
Oil breaking down
Gold holding above $4k ”
Warren isn’t alone in his enthusiasm either. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick is predicting a Christmas rally. He writes:
“S&P 500 was up more than 10% YTD heading into the last two months. November was just flat. The last two months have been up the past 16 times it was up 10% YTD heading into it. Still think Santa Claus comes to town in December.”
So Black Friday was a resounding success. All eyes now turn towards the Cyber Monday reports, while the stock market and GDP continue surging higher.
The tale of two experiences is not going away unfortunately.
We just have to hope people start understanding they can only win if they own assets and chill