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you are only looking at the dollar price of your portfolio, you may be missing the part of the picture that is significantly shaped by money supply growth.
To the casual observer, markets look like business as usual. Bitcoin has nearly halved to $66,000 since its $126,000 October peak — easily dismissed as another brutal quadrennial crypto bear market. The S&P 500 continues to hover near record highs above 7,500 points. Nothing unusual.
But beneath the surface, a more interesting and concerning signal emerges when both prices are adjusted for the US M2 money supply — the Federal Reserve's measure of liquid assets including cash, checking and savings deposits, money market funds, and certificates of deposit. M2 measures, in effect, how many dollars exist in the system at any given time. Adjusting asset prices for M2 growth reveals what those prices look like relative to the expanding supply of money rather than in nominal terms alone.
Bitcoin's BTC/M2 ratio: a head-and-shoulders warning
Some observers treat Bitcoin as a high-beta barometer for dollar liquidity — an asset whose price reflects not just its own supply and demand dynamics but the broader expansion and contraction of the dollar supply. On that basis, the BTC/M2 ratio — Bitcoin's price adjusted for money supply growth — has been one of the most watched long-term signals in crypto analysis.
After a sharp climb from 2023 through 2025, the BTC/M2 ratio appears to have formed what technical analysts call a head-and-shoulders pattern — classically interpreted as a bearish reversal signal. If the pattern holds, it would suggest that Bitcoin's exponential edge over money supply growth — the dynamic that allowed it to outrun currency debasement so convincingly in prior cycles — is fading, at least for now.
This matters more than it might initially appear. Bitcoin's value proposition as a scarce, fixed-supply asset has always rested partly on its ability to outpace the money printer over time. If the BTC/M2 ratio is forming a structural top, it would suggest that each new dollar added to the system is no longer being outrun by Bitcoin's price appreciation at the same rate as in prior cycles — a potential signal of diminishing marginal returns from the debasement trade that has underpinned Bitcoin's bull case for retail and institutional investors alike.
The S&P 500 in M2 terms: a quarter century of money printing to reclaim the dot-com peak
The S&P 500's money-supply-adjusted story is equally striking. In nominal terms, the index currently hovers near a record high of 7,511 — well above its year-2000 peak of approximately 1,500 points and seemingly in a different universe from the dot-com bubble's heights.
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$BTC Analisi Prezzo: Ultime Tendenze e Livelli Chiave
Bitcoin (BTC) sta attualmente scambiando intorno ai $66,000, continuando la sua recente fase di consolidamento sotto i livelli chiave di resistenza. Sebbene i fondamentali a lungo termine rimangano forti, l'azione di prezzo a breve termine mostra che BTC sta cercando un chiaro catalizzatore per accendere la prossima gamba rialzista.
Il grafico seguente illustra il cruciale setup tecnico che attualmente definisce la traiettoria di Bitcoin.
Setup Tecnico: Consolidamento e Resistenza
Come mostrato nel grafico sopra, Bitcoin è caratterizzato da una significativa zona di resistenza overhead vicino al suo precedente massimo storico di circa $69,000. Questa linea orizzontale rossa si è dimostrata una barriera formidabile, con molteplici punti di rifiuto mentre i venditori difendono intensamente questo livello. Attualmente, il prezzo oscilla tra questa resistenza critica e una ben consolidata zona di supporto vicino ai $60,000, contrassegnata in verde. Questo range di $9,000 ha definito il panorama di trading per gran parte dell'ultimo trimestre.