Bilal_08

As of late February 2026, Bitcoin ($BTC ) is trading around $65,800–$66,000, down sharply from its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000. This represents a roughly 48–52% drawdown — a classic post-peak correction in crypto cycles, but one that's testing investor nerves amid broader market risk-off sentiment.
The sell-off accelerated in early February 2026, with acute drops tied to macro pressures like tariff announcements, deleveraging in leveraged positions, and reduced institutional momentum. Bitcoin dipped to local lows near $60,000–$63,000 in recent weeks before staging short-lived bounces (e.g., a strong +6% rally to ~$69,000+ mid-February). Yet, it has failed to sustain above key resistance zones like $68,000–$70,000, trapping price in a volatile consolidation range roughly between $60k–$72k.
### Key Technical Levels in Play Right Now
- Support Zones:
- Immediate: $64,000–$65,000 (recent lows and liquidity pockets where buyers defended).
- Critical: $60,000–$62,000 (psychological + historical support; breach could accelerate downside).
- Deeper: $55,000–$57,000 (potential next cluster if capitulation builds) or even $50,000 (2024 lows or extension targets in bearish scenarios).
- Resistance Zones:
- Near-term: $68,000–$70,000 (200-week EMA vicinity + failed breakout area).
- Higher: $75,000–$80,000 (previous cycle lows turned resistance; reclaiming would signal stronger recovery).
On-chain and derivatives data show mixed signals: Extreme fear levels (Fear & Greed around 13/100) often mark contrarian bottoms historically, but downside skew in options remains elevated — "smart money" still hedging with puts rather than chasing rallies aggressively. Leverage has deleveraged orderly so far (no full capitulation), but put open interest clusters at $55k–$60k suggest bears expect limited further drops rather than a crash.
### Bull Case: This Could Be the Bottom (or Close to It)
- Oversold conditions on RSI and other oscillators after the 50%+ drawdown.
- Historical patterns show deep corrections (50–75%) are normal post-ATH in bull cycles; many view this as healthy shakeout of weak hands.
- Some analysts see early base-forming: volatility compression, call accumulation in options for $85k–$95k rebounds, and potential follow-through if macro stabilizes (e.g., liquidity injections or reduced tariff fears).
- Institutional interest persists in spots like tokenized assets/RWAs, which could support long-term demand.
If $BTC holds $60k and reclaims $70k convincingly (especially on weekly close), it could mark a local bottom and target a relief rally toward $80k+.
### Bear Case: More Pain Ahead (Potentially Significant)
- Broader downtrend intact since October 2025; failure at $70k resistance keeps bears in control.
- Analysts warn of further downside to $50k–$55k (or even $30k–$45k in extreme cycle views) if $60k breaks — citing historical moving average crossovers (e.g., 50-week below 100-week) or ongoing deleveraging.
- Sentiment flipped back to "buy the dip" optimism too quickly after bounces — often a contrarian red flag that the correction isn't finished.
- Macro headwinds (equity correlation, potential risk-off from global events) could drag crypto lower before true capitulation.
Many forecasts point to a Q4 2026 bottom in deeper bear scenarios, with $50k or below as exhaustion zones.
### My Take as a Trader
This feels like a classic mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a full bear market — but it's painful, and $60k is the line in the sand. I'm leaning toward more pain ahead short-term (possible test of $55k–$60k) before a sustainable bottom forms, especially if monthly closes stay red (February already on track for heavy losses).
That said, extreme fear + oversold signals make aggressive shorts risky here. For long-term holders, DCA into dips below $65k could pay off if history rhymes.
What do you think — bottom in sight, or another leg down? Drop your targets below! 🚀
$BTC — always the king, corrections build stronger foundations.
(Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Crypto is volatile — DYOR and trade responsibly.)