In June 2026, the USD Index (t-17) broke through the 101 level, hitting a new high since May 2025. The main driver is the hawkish pivot in the Fed's policy: at the June FOMC meeting, 9 out of 19 officials expected at least one rate hike before the end of the year (up from zero in March), and market bets on rate increases this year are heating up fast. Meanwhile, US economic data is showing resilience, and with non-USD currencies collectively weakening, the dollar is being pushed higher.

The pressure on Bitcoin is continuing to intensify. Over the past year, the daily correlation coefficient between the DXY and Bitcoin has been as low as -0.72—meaning the stronger the dollar gets, the harder it is for Bitcoin to make a comeback.

Firstly, the price rebound lacks strength, and the risk of breaking down is increasing. Bitcoin has been repeatedly testing the $62,000 support level, with rebounds consistently failing above $65,000. Technical analysis indicates that if the DXY holds above 101.5, Bitcoin may further retest the $58,000 to $60,000 range, with bullish momentum clearly waning.

Secondly, ETF funds are flowing out at an accelerated pace. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, totaling about $6 billion. Institutional hedging sentiment is strong, with funds continuously withdrawing from risk assets and shifting towards cash in USD and US Treasuries, showing no signs of return in the short term.

Thirdly, on-chain selling pressure remains unabated. Data from Galaxy Research shows that early investors holding for more than five years have been distributing heavily for four consecutive weeks, and miners have officially entered a 'surrender' phase, with daily sell-offs exceeding newly mined output, indicating insufficient market absorption.

Fourthly, tightening macro liquidity is suppressing valuations. A strong dollar means a contraction in global USD liquidity, leading to higher borrowing costs, which directly impacts the highly leveraged crypto market. Long positions in the futures market have significantly decreased, increasing the risk of liquidation.

Looking ahead, the short-term market is likely to continue a strong oscillation. The macro headwinds facing Bitcoin are far from over. Even if a technical rebound occurs, it is unlikely to change the overall weak trend. If the Federal Reserve indeed starts raising interest rates this year, Bitcoin's valuation center may further decline, making it extremely challenging to hold the $60,000 level, and the mid-term outlook is not optimistic.