$SPCX $QQQ $BTC 6 June FOMC Preview: Kashkari's Debut, Is the Hawkish Script Already Written?
Rate hike? Not happening. This meeting will definitely keep rates steady (98% chance of maintaining 3.50%-3.75%), the real game changer lies in the dot plot and statement wording.
Key Takeaways:
1. Major Shift in Dot Plot: In March, they hinted at a rate cut this year, but this time it’s likely to change to "no cuts for the year," with even a hint of 2027 being the next possible cut.
2. Removal of Easing Language: Phrases like "the next step could be a rate cut" will be taken out, replaced with "data will speak for itself."
3. Kashkari's Debut: This guy is hawkish, loves to speak the hard truth. He may downplay the role of the dot plot, reducing the market's certainty in "chart trading."
How will it affect the market? As long as the dot plot confirms "no rate cuts," high rates will be the new normal. This is bad for US equities as it kills valuations and drains liquidity from the crypto space. Don’t expect the shoe to drop as a positive—this shoe isn’t coming down at all; it’s hanging in the air. #美联储何时降息？ #美联储会议
Rate hike? Not happening. This meeting will definitely keep rates steady (98% chance of maintaining 3.50%-3.75%), the real game changer lies in the dot plot and statement wording.
Key Takeaways:
1. Major Shift in Dot Plot: In March, they hinted at a rate cut this year, but this time it’s likely to change to "no cuts for the year," with even a hint of 2027 being the next possible cut.
2. Removal of Easing Language: Phrases like "the next step could be a rate cut" will be taken out, replaced with "data will speak for itself."
3. Kashkari's Debut: This guy is hawkish, loves to speak the hard truth. He may downplay the role of the dot plot, reducing the market's certainty in "chart trading."
How will it affect the market? As long as the dot plot confirms "no rate cuts," high rates will be the new normal. This is bad for US equities as it kills valuations and drains liquidity from the crypto space. Don’t expect the shoe to drop as a positive—this shoe isn’t coming down at all; it’s hanging in the air. #美联储何时降息？ #美联储会议