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U.S. employment data fell short of expectations, leading to increased market anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. According to RTHK, this development caused both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields to decline. The dollar index decreased by 0.2%, closing at 98.85, although it rose over 1% for the week.

On Friday, the euro appreciated by approximately 0.1% against the dollar, while the British pound increased by 0.4%. The dollar also gained 0.1% against the Japanese yen. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note briefly fell by more than 4 basis points to 4.105%, while the more rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield dropped by 8 basis points to 3.519%. Both yields later narrowed their declines, settling around 4.13% and 3.55%, respectively.

When I first saw the number, I paused. Just 3%. That means out of every 100 traders on Polymarket, only 3 believe Trump's 45-day Iran ceasefire deadline will actually work. The remaining 97 are betting it fails. And the total money behind that collective judgment has crossed $103 million.

Polymarket is not a news channel or a polling platform. It is a prediction market where people put real money on real outcomes. There is no room for casual opinion here. Whoever bets wrong loses actual capital. That makes this 3% figure something more than a sentiment reading. It is the aggregated financial judgment of thousands of participants who have skin in the game.

But the honest question remains: is the market always right?

History says no. In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, most prediction markets gave Trump below a 20% chance of winning. He won anyway. So treating any market probability as settled truth would be a mistake. The market reflects available information, not guaranteed outcomes.

That said, I think two things are worth looking at separately here.

First, Iran's actual position. According to NS3.AI, Iran has flatly rejected the 45-day proposal and countered with a demand for permanent cessation of hostilities. This is not a disagreement over timelines. It is a fundamental difference in what each side considers an acceptable outcome. One side is offering a temporary pause. The other is demanding a permanent resolution. Bridging that gap in 45 days is not just difficult. It is structurally unlikely.

Second, the nature of Trump's diplomatic style. The Trump administration has historically relied on pressure tactics and hard deadlines as negotiating tools. Sometimes that approach forces movement. Sometimes it hardens the other side's position. With Iran specifically, this method has been tried before, and the results have been inconsistent at best.

So is Polymarket actually right?

My read is this: the market is not saying success is impossible. A 3% probability is not zero. Back-channel diplomacy can shift things quickly. Unexpected breakthroughs happen in geopolitics. But what the market is saying, through $103 million in traded volume, is that the current conditions do not favor a successful outcome within the proposed timeframe.

When 97 out of 100 informed, financially motivated participants reach the same conclusion, that signal deserves serious attention. The market could absolutely be wrong. But if it is, that outcome would be the genuine surprise, not the expectation.

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