Sameer Shah

This week, Bitcoin dropped below $75,000 while Ethereum nearly touched $2,100.

Many altcoins crashed much harder and it felt like the market is falling apart.

But when you look at the data, several signals suggest that the market may have already formed a local bottom.

Here are the key reasons.

1) Bitcoin supply in profit is extremely low

Right now, less than 45% of Bitcoin supply is in profit.

That is very important.

This level is lower than November 2022 (FTX collapse) and even lower than March 2020 (COVID crash).

What does this mean?

It means most holders are already sitting in losses. A lot of selling has already happened. Pain has already been absorbed by the market.

Historically, when Bitcoin supply in profit falls this low, it has often marked bottoms.

2) Leverage has been fully flushed out

The derivatives market looks completely washed.

Funding rates, especially on Ethereum, have been negative for 4–5 days in a row.

Negative funding means:
– Traders are heavily short
– Sentiment is very bearish
– Most people are positioned for downside

Markets usually do not crash when everyone is already bearish. They usually bottom around that time.

3) Institutional demand is returning

Bitcoin ETFs have started seeing inflows again.

Around $550 million worth of Bitcoin has flowed into ETFs recently.

Binance SAFU Fund is buying Bitcoin.

This matters because institutions do not usually buy during panic unless they believe prices are attractive.

This shows real demand is stepping in at lower levels.

4) Major FUD has cleared

A lot of fear stories were circulating recently.

– The claim that Epstein is Satoshi has faded
– The fear that MicroStrategy would go bankrupt if BTC falls below its cost basis has not played out
– Ethereum treasury companies are still buying

In fact, BitMine bought around $46 million worth of Ethereum today, even after recent losses.

This shows large players are not panicking. They are buying when fear is high.

That is a positive sign.

5) CME gap acting as a price magnet

There is a CME gap around $84,500 on Bitcoin.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to fill CME gaps sooner or later.

Since October 10, almost every CME gap has been filled within 1–2 weeks.

This creates a reasonable probability of a relief rally toward that zone, driven by demand and short covering.

Putting it all together

- Supply in profit is at extreme lows
- Leverage is flushed
- Funding is negative
- ETFs are buying
- Big players are accumulating
- Fear is loud and dominant
- Shorts are aggressive
- Sentiment hit extreme fear just days ago

These conditions usually do not appear at tops but at bottoms.
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